Gold could rule flat, pausing for US Fed meet.

Gold prices on domestic and futures market are likely to rule flat on Tuesday as the market looks for direction from a key meeting of the US Federal Reserve. But investors continue to be bearish, further paring their holdings in electronic formats on gold exchange-traded funds.

The US Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday with speculation rife of an imminent paring of pumping cash into the economy. The US Fed buys treasury and other bonds worth $85 billion every month. The speculation has already resulted in the dollar gaining. The movement of the rupee against the Greenback will also have a say on how gold behaves since a weak rupee results in commodities such as gold, crude oil and vegetable oils turning costlier.

In early Asian trade in Singapore, spot gold ruled at $1,384.72 an ounce, while gold futures maturing in August quoted at $1,384.
In the domestic market on Monday, gold for Jewellery (99.5% purity) slipped to Rs 27,840 for 10 gm and pure gold (99.9% purity) to Rs 27, 985.

On MCX, gold August contracts could range between Rs 27,800 and Rs 27,900.
Meanwhile, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold-backed exchange-traded product, dropped to 1,003.17 tonnes on Monday, the lowest in 52 months.

Crude Oil

Fears that stockpiles in the US could be lower are likely to drive crude oil up in almost all markets on Tuesday.

It was reflected in early Asian trade where Brent crude for delivery in August was up at $105.59 a barrel, while Western Texas Intermediate crude July contracts rose to $97.84 a barrel.

Oils and Oil-seeds

The oils and oilseeds complex will head lower despite Malaysia reporting higher exports. This is because the weather in the US is conducive to planting more soyabean, while Indian monsoon’s progress is seen positive for soyabean and other oilseeds.

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean for delivery in November quoted at $12.90 a bushel, while crude palm oil in Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange to be delivered in August rose to 2,475 ringgit ($784.5) a tonne in early trade.

Grains complex

Though wheat and corn (industrial maize) slipped last night on favourable weather for the US crop, in early trade CBOT wheat for delivery in September rose to $6.85 a bushel, while corn for delivery in December quoted at $5.40 a bushel.

Rubber

With Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top three rubber producing nations, not able to decide on curbing exports, rubber is headed lower on fears of supply glut.

On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, rubber for delivery in November fell to 235 yen or Rs 144 a kg.

Nikkei turns down as market wary ahead of Fed outcome.

Japan's Nikkei average reversed early gains on Tuesday, underscoring the volatility that has roiled the market lately, as investors awaited the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting for clues on whether it will continue to support the US economy.
 By the midday break, the Nikkei slipped 0.7% to 12,941.80 after trading as high as 13,139.48. It climbed 2.7% on Monday, lifting the index out of a bear market.
 Many investors have been cutting their long Japanese equities and short yen positions on concerns that the Fed will scale back its stimulus this year and after the Nikkei had rallied more than 80 % from mid-November to its 5-1/2 year peak hit on May 23. Since then, trading in Japanese equities has been extremely volatile.

Disappointment over a growth strategy unveiled by the Japanese government recently and worries over slowing growth in China have also contributed to the market tumult.

Underscoring the volatility, since May 23 the Nikkei has had 15 sessions where intraday swings exceeded 2.5%, compared with 16 such trading days for the year up to May 22 and four such days in the whole of 2012. The U.S. S&P 500 only has had one such trading day in 2013, and the Euro STOXX 50 index has 11.

WABAG BAGS INR 262 CRORE ORDER FROM NEPAL.

 VA TECH

WABAG LIMITED, a leading Indian MNC, in a joint venture with Pratibha Industries Limited has won an INR 262 crore order from Melamchi Water Supply Development Board, Nepal. The scope of work comprises
construction of Water Treatment Plant at Sundarijal, Nepal which will
have an initial capacity of 85 MlD and will be designed to be expanded to 170 MlD, and to 510 MLD
at a later stage. The water treatment plant at Sundarijal is part of the Melamchi Water Supply
Project, under the auspices of the Melamchi Water Supply Development Board (MWSDB). The
project has been funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).This Project will treat
water from the Melamchi River and discharge the treated water through pipeline upto battery limits.

  The WABAG Group represents a leading multinational player with a workforce of over 1,500 and has
companies and offices in more than 20 countries. It disposes over unique technological know-how,
based on innovative, patented technologies and long-term experience.

Sensex up 139 points,Capital goods, healthcare stocks major gainers.

Though RBI Governor D. Subbarao played safe keeping the CRR and repo rate unchanged, the stock market took the shock in its chin as it was more or less anticipated.

The Reserve Bank of India, in its mid-quarter monetary policy review, has kept the repo rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent and cash reserve ratio at 4 per cent. It has also left the reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.25 per cent.

At 1.25 p.m., the 30-share BSE index Sensex was up 82 points (0.43 per cent) at 19,259.93 and the 50-share NSE index Nifty was up 25.4 points (0.44 per cent) at 5,833.80.
On the BSE, capital goods and healthcare stocks were the major gainers and were up 1.07 per cent and 0.86 per cent, respectively, followed by consumer durables 0.84 per cent and auto 0.81 per cent.

On the other hand, metal and PSU stocks lost investors' support and were down by 0.16 per cent and 0.12 per cent, respectively.

Among 30-share Sensex, M&M, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, HDFC and BHEL were the top five gainers, while the top five losers were Tata Motors, Hindalco, Sterlite, Dr Reddy's and TCS.

No change Policy....RBI keeps the rates unchanged.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4.0
per cent of their net demand and time liabilities; and
 keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF)  unchanged at 7.25 per cent.
 Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain unchanged at  6.25 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 8.25 per cent.

Nifty slips 33 points down trading at 5775, Sensex losses 80 points.

Points considered in Policy:
Global economic activity has slowed and risks remain elevated, most recently on account of uncertainty over policies of systemic central banks. On the domestic front, macroeconomic conditions remain weak, hamstrung by infrastructure bottlenecks, supply constraints, lacklustre domestic demand and subdued investment sentiment. Inflation has moderated as projected. However, upside pressures on the way forward from the pass-through of rupee depreciation, recent increases in administered prices and persisting imbalances, especially relating to food, pose risks of second-round effects.

Global growth has been patchy and uneven. Among advanced economies (AEs), during Q1 of 2013, growth in US and Japan improved while that in the euro area contracted. Growth in most emerging and developing economies (EDEs) has been relatively resilient, although in some large emerging economies, sluggish external demand and stalled domestic investment are dragging down economic  activity. Inflation has been easing in the AEs due to weak demand conditions.
EDEs, however, present a mixed picture: inflation remains elevated in the BRICS except China. Commodity prices, other than the price of crude, have generally softened in recent months.

Eye on Mahindra & Mahindra

Shares of Mahindra Forgings Ltd and Mahindra Composites Ltd may continue to trade with positive momentum. The promoter-Mahindra Group-announced a share swap under which it will hand control of its domestic components business to the Spanish company. The Spanish company announced an open offer, which is at a premium to Friday’s closing price of the target companies.
Mahindra & Mahindra is an Indian automobile manufacturing corporation,It is one of the largest vehicle manufacturers  by production in India.

MNM trading at Rs.968, opens at Rs.961.20 up by 2.29% from Friday's closing Rs.947.45,
Mahforg trading at Rs.69.25 up by 3.66%  from Friday's closing Rs.66.85,
Mahincomp is locked under upper circuit of  Rs.34.45.

Central banks could hold sway over markets

Actions of two central banks could determine the direction of Indian stocks in the week ahead. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decision on policy rates is likely to set the tone for domestic stocks this week, the outcome of the US Fed’s two-day meet ending Wednesday — which could give some clarity on its monetary policy outlook — could have wider implications on  global financial markets.

   Hopes of a policy-rate or repo rate-cut by RBI have diminished following the recent decline in the rupee against the dollar. So, if the Indian central bank keeps the repo rate (at which it lends to banks) intact, markets would not be disappointed, said fund managers.

 After RBI’s meeting, investors will closely watch the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting. If Fed chairman Ben Bernanke signals that the US central bank might cut down its bond buying programme known as Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3), it could weigh down sentiment in emerging market equities including India’s. The liquidity from QE3 has made its way to equity and bond markets worldwide.

       Investors, however, think RBI might cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) — the minimum amount banks need to hold with the central bank, to ease liquidity.

“A CRR cut of 25 bps is what some quarters of the market are looking forward to,.“With the declining rupee situation, high current account deficit numbers, markets are not expecting a repo rate cut.”

Gold futures trade lower on global cues

Gold futures showed a negative trade on MCX as speculators offloaded their positions driven by weak trend in domestic market. Further, as investors sold off worrying about an early end to the Federal Reserve's massive bond-buying stimulus on the back of strong U.S. data, put pressure on the Gold futures. However, the prices found some support from weakness in the US dollar, as dollar-priced commodities became less expensive to investors holding other currencies.

The contract for August delivery was trading at Rs 27681.00/10 GRMS, down by 0.31% or Rs 85.00 from its previous closing of Rs 27766.00/10 GRMS. The open interest of the contract stood at 14347 lots

The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 27868.00 /10 GRMS, down by 0.32% or Rs 89.00 from its previous closing of Rs 27957.00/10 GRMS. The open interest of the contract stood at 1344 lots on MCX.

Bond yields ease tracing lower than expected May inflation data

Pre WPI data Scenario:

Bond yields eased in early deals tracing a stronger rupee and higher US treasuries. However, yields will likely be biased up as the Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to cut rates as the recent sharp rupee fall has sparked renewed concern about the current account deficit. Meanwhile, the yields gyrated in range-bound for today’s trading session as dealers awaited headline inflation, which probably held near the central bank's comfort level of 5 per cent last month.

On the global front, US Treasuries were firm in Asia on Friday as traders took the view that any end to the Fed's bond buying programme will be gradual and that no rates hikes were imminent. Meanwhile, Brent futures slipped on Friday from near $105 a barrel with ample US inventories and a poor demand outlook weighing on prices, after bouncing more than 3 percent in the last two sessions off this week's low.

Back home, the yields on 10-year 7.16% - 2013 bonds were trading 1 basis point lower to 7.32% from its previous close of 7.33% on Thursday.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were trading 1 basis point lower at 7.00% from its previous close of 7.01% on Thursday.

Post WPI data Scenario:

In a sharp reaction to the surprisingly lower inflation figures for May, bond yields edged lower on enlarged rate cuts hopes. Lower industrial growth and inflation data, strengthens the case for rate cut in RBI’s monetary policy slated next week.

Providing RBI the much needed room for slashing rates, India's main inflation gauge, surprisingly slowed down further to 4.7% for the month of May, as compared to 4.89% (Provisional) for the previous month of April, which was its lowest level since 2009.

The yields on 10-year 7.16% - 2013 bonds were trading 1 basis point lower to 7.32% from its previous close of 7.33% on Thursday.

May WPI softens further to 4.7% v/s 4.89% in April; March inflation revised downwards to 5.65%

In a big surprise, the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, slowed down further to 4.70% (Provisional) for the month of May, 2013 (over May, 2012) as compared to 4.89% (Provisional) for the previous month and 7.55% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation in the financial year so far, was 0.88% compared to a build-up of 1.80% in the corresponding period of the previous year. However in a pleasant surprise, March inflation figures were revised downward to 5.65% from 5.96%.

Manufactured products, which carry weight of 64.97% in the index, rose by 0.3% to 149.1 (Provisional) from 148.7 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index for 'Food Products' group rose by 0.8% to 167.1 (Provisional) from 165.8 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index of Fuel & Power, which has weight of 14.91%, declined by 1.3% to 192.0 (Provisional) from 194.6 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher price of electricity (13%) as price of other items such as LPG (12%), coal (10%), aviation turbine fuel (6%) and petrol (5%) declined.

The index of Primary Articles, having weight of 20.12% too rose by 0.6% to 229.3 (Provisional) from 228.0 (Provisional) for the previous month. The index for 'Non-Food Articles' group declined by 0.6% to 208.5 (Provisional) from 209.7 (Provisional) for the previous month, while the index for 'Minerals' group declined by 2.4% to 346.5 (Provisional) from 355.0 (Provisional) for the previous month.

However, it remains to be noted the widening divergence between WPI and CPI remains the matter of concern. Annual rate of inflation, based on the consumer prices index (CPI), declining for third straight month grew above the expectation of sub 9% figure at 9.31% in May, as against 9.39% in April.

Meanwhile, the sharp downtick in March inflation figures, core wholesale price index, or inflation that excludes volatile food and fuel prices, which is estimated to have risen by 2.4% from a year earlier, easing from an annual 2.77% rise in April, also provides the central bank with some room to cut policy rates by 25 basis points in its Policy review on June 17. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), so far, has obliged the street with rate cuts for three times, with the latest being the one on May 3. Drawing comfort from 3-year low inflation, RBI, in its ‘Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14’, reduced repo rate by 25 basis points from 7.5% to 7.25% with immediate effect, its lowest since May 2011.