The Chinese central government has appreciated the increased risks in the financial system arising from strong credit growth since 2008.
China's growth is steadying and rebalancing, thus shifting the focus to consumption. At the same time, rising credit costs and weakening profitability in China's banking sector are tightening liquidity for weak corporate borrowers. Can consumption stay strong and how will this affect China's central and regional governments, financial institutions, and its various industries?
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services discusses these topics in two reports published yesterday, titled " China's Growth Is Holding Up, But Banks And Companies Face Weaker Profitability And Other Issues," and "Credit FAQ: Can China Withstand The Worsening Economic And Financial Conditions?"
"We believe China's private consumption has room for further growth although some structural reforms are needed to support that rebalancing," said Mr. Paul Gruenwald, Asia-Pacific chief economist at Standard & Poor's. "We also believe the government will keep GDP growth close to its target level, including by increasing public investment in lesser-developed regions."
In our view, the Chinese central government has appreciated the increased risks in the financial system arising from strong credit growth since 2008.
"Given the higher risks in the financial system, the central government has been wary of relying on bank lending to finance very strong stimulus spending to stabilise growth," said Standard & Poor's sovereign credit analyst Mr. Kim Eng Tan.
The current slowdown has hurt cash flows in China companies, leading to deteriorating debt-servicing ability. At the same time, financing conditions are tightening for weaker companies.
"The central government is trying to address industrial overcapacity, particularly in steel, aluminum, cement, shipbuilding, and glass, but cooperation from local governments is uncertain," said Standard & Poor's corporate credit analyst Mr. Christopher Lee. "Reform of state-owned enterprises is progressing slowly at the local government level. Based on the current trends, we expect more downgrades over the next 12 months."
Weak cash flows in industrial companies spell declining asset quality for China banks. The country's financial reforms, local government debt swaps, and a deepening domestic debt capital market will also shrink bank profitability and asset yield.
"Economic risk will continue to negatively affect the banks' credit standing. We expect continued credit divergence among banks that we rate in China because some banks are better prepared for challenges than others," said Mr. Qiang Liao, Standard & Poor's bank credit analyst.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services discusses these topics in two reports published yesterday, titled " China's Growth Is Holding Up, But Banks And Companies Face Weaker Profitability And Other Issues," and "Credit FAQ: Can China Withstand The Worsening Economic And Financial Conditions?"
"We believe China's private consumption has room for further growth although some structural reforms are needed to support that rebalancing," said Mr. Paul Gruenwald, Asia-Pacific chief economist at Standard & Poor's. "We also believe the government will keep GDP growth close to its target level, including by increasing public investment in lesser-developed regions."
In our view, the Chinese central government has appreciated the increased risks in the financial system arising from strong credit growth since 2008.
"Given the higher risks in the financial system, the central government has been wary of relying on bank lending to finance very strong stimulus spending to stabilise growth," said Standard & Poor's sovereign credit analyst Mr. Kim Eng Tan.
The current slowdown has hurt cash flows in China companies, leading to deteriorating debt-servicing ability. At the same time, financing conditions are tightening for weaker companies.
"The central government is trying to address industrial overcapacity, particularly in steel, aluminum, cement, shipbuilding, and glass, but cooperation from local governments is uncertain," said Standard & Poor's corporate credit analyst Mr. Christopher Lee. "Reform of state-owned enterprises is progressing slowly at the local government level. Based on the current trends, we expect more downgrades over the next 12 months."
Weak cash flows in industrial companies spell declining asset quality for China banks. The country's financial reforms, local government debt swaps, and a deepening domestic debt capital market will also shrink bank profitability and asset yield.
"Economic risk will continue to negatively affect the banks' credit standing. We expect continued credit divergence among banks that we rate in China because some banks are better prepared for challenges than others," said Mr. Qiang Liao, Standard & Poor's bank credit analyst.
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