Thursday, 11 February 2016

Gold demand in Q4 rose 4% yoy to a 10-quarter high of 1,117.7t

Overall jewellery demand for the full year 2015 was down 3% to 2,415t from 2,481t in the previous year. Following a slower start to the year, the third and fourth quarters combined produced the strongest second half-year total for gold jewellery in 11 years.



Global gold demand in 2015 was virtually flat compared to 2014at 4,212 tonnes (t), according to the World Gold Council’s latestGold Demand Trends report. Despite a challenging start to the year, gold demand rebounded in the second half of 2015 as aresult of sustained buying from central banks and a strongsecond half from China and India.
 
This was particularly evident in the retail investment sector,where bar and coin purchases were led by China and Europe,with strong support from the US, as investors took advantage ofweaker prices amid a softening economic backdrop, financialturbulence and ongoing geopolitical tension.
 
Global investment demand for the full year 2015 grew by 8% to 878t from 815t in 2014. Bar and coin demand remained steady in 2015 as investors took advantage of a weaker price in Q3. The ETF market saw a slowdown in outflows: 133t in 2015, compared to 185t in 2014. Q4 2015 witnessed a continuation of these trendswith a number of key regions experiencing double digit growth.



 
Overall jewellery demand for the full year 2015 was down 3% to 2,415t from 2,481t in the previous year.Following a slower start to the year, the third and fourth quarters combined produced the strongest second half-year total for gold jewellery in 11 years. Q4 2015, saw steady levels of jewellery demand, at 671t compared to677t in the same period last year, with retailers reporting an increase in sales around the Indian festival period.


Central Bank demand for the full year 2015 saw a small uptick from 584t in 2014 to 588t in 2015 as the need for further diversification was reinforced by a tumbling oil price and reduced confidence in the global economy.Demand in Q4 continued to be strong, up 25% to 167t from 134t in Q4 2014, making this the 20th consecutivequarter of net purchasing.


 Gold demand in Q4 showed further positive signs, following a strong third quarter. In India both the investment(60t) and jewellery (173t) sectors were up 6%, boosted by the festival season. In China, which has witnessedeconomic turmoil, consumer uncertainty and currency weakness, gold demand held up well, particularly in the investment sector up 25% to 48t for the quarter.
 
Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence at the World Gold Council, said: “In a year that saw global economic and stock market turmoil, the first US interest rate rise in nine years and falling oil prices, demand forgold remained resilient, coming in at 4,212 tonnes for the   full year. Official sector purchases, combined withstrength in the Asian markets and continuing momentum in the US and Europe, reinforced gold’s credentials as aportfolio diversifier, a wealth preservation tool and a hedge against a range of risks.” 
 
“Looking ahead, physical demand will continue to be supported by strong central bank purchases, and continued buying of jewellery, bars and coins by households across the world, led by India and China. If we just look at the year to date, the investment case for gold is as strong as ever. While stockmarkets have wobbled, gold hasperformed well.”
 
Full year 2015 saw China (985t) and India (849t) continue their dominance in the global gold market,accounting for close to 45% of total global gold demand during 2015, with annual consumer demand in both up2% and 1% respectively.
 
Total supply for the year experienced a drop of 4% to 4,258t for the Full Year 2015 compared to 4,414t in 2014. This is reflective of both recycling hitting multi-year lows and mine production growth falling to its lowest level since2008. Mine production contracted in Q4, the first quarterly contraction since 2008, as cost cutting took effect. Q42015 reported a more substantial decline of 10% to 1,037t compared to 1,152t in the same period last year asprimary production slowed as a result of weaker gold prices, mine closures and project delays.

Full year 2015 figures:
  • Overall demand was 4,212t, virtually flat when compared to the 2014 figure of 4,226t
  • Total consumer demand was 3,427t, a 2% decline compared to 3,481t in 2014
  • Global investment demand was 878t a growth of 8% from 815t in 2014
  • Global jewellery demand in 2015 was down 3% to 2,415t from 2,481t in 2014
  • Central bank demand was virtually flat at 588t compared to 584t in 2014
  • Demand in the technology sector was down 5% to 331t from 346t in 2014
  • Total supply was down 4% to 4,258t compared to 4,414t in 2014 with total mine supply
  • down 2% to 3,165t from 3,244t in 2014

Q4 2015
  • Overall demand increased 4% to 1,118t compared to 1,071t in Q4 2014
  • Total consumer demand was virtually flat at 935t compared to 938t in Q4 2014
  • Global investment demand grew by 15% to 195t from 169t in Q4 2014
  • Global jewellery demand softened to 671t down just 1% from 677t in Q4 2014
  • Central bank demand grew 25% to 167t compared to 134t in the same period last year
  • Demand in the technology sector fell 7% from 90t in Q4 2014 to 84t in Q4 2015
  • Total supply slipped to 1,037t in Q4 2015 compared to 1,152t in the same period last year a decline of 10%,with total mine supply also decreasing by 9% to 810t from 893t in Q4 2014

BHEL bags order worth Rs.3,500 crore from NTPC

The contract has been placed on BHEL by NTPC Limited, for setting up the 2x800 MW Steam Generator (SG) island package at ‘Telangana Super Thermal Power Project (TnSTPP)’.


Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) has won a major order for the supply of two 800 MW Steam Generators (Boilers) with supercritical parameters.

With this, the company has once again demonstrated its International competitiveness. Valued at nearly Rs.35,000 Million, the contract has been placed on BHEL by NTPC Limited, for setting up the 2x800 MW Steam Generator (SG) island package at ‘Telangana Super Thermal Power Project (TnSTPP)’. 

The project is located within NTPC’s existing Ramagundam Power Station in Karimnagar district of Telangana. The power generated from this plant will contribute substantially to meet the demand for power aimed at providing an impetus to the development of the state. BHEL's scope of work involves design, engineering, manufacture, supply, construction, erection, testing & commissioning and civil works for the Steam Generator island package.
The key equipment for the contract will be manufactured at BHEL’s Trichy, Ranipet, Hyderabad, Jhansi and Bengaluru plants and the company's Power Sector division shall be responsible for civil works and erection/ commissioning of the equipment. BHEL has a long-standing partnership with NTPC and has supplied over 30,000 MW of the coal-based power plants of NTPC and its JVs, that account for around 80% of NTPC’s coal-based installed capacity. 

This also includes 2 supercritical units of 660 MW each, which have been commissioned at Barh. In addition, close to 8,000 MW sets of NTPC and its JVs are under various stages of execution by BHEL including 14 supercritical Steam Generators and 7 supercritical Steam Turbine Generators. BHEL is the market leader in both the subcritical as well as the supercritical segments in the country. The company has so far contracted 46 supercritical Steam Generators and 39 supercritical Steam Turbine Generators – the highest in the country by any power equipment manufacturer. 

Notably, during the current fiscal itself, BHEL has been entrusted with orders for 10 supercritical Steam Generators and 8 supercritical Steam Turbine Generators by various utilities. Out of the supercritical sets contracted so far, 6 Steam Generators and 4 Steam Turbine Generators have already achieved capacity addition. 

BHEL’s contribution of nearly two-thirds of the total power generated in the country is testimony to the superlative performance of BHEL's equipment. BHEL has been committed to the nation’s power development programme and has established the capability to deliver power plant equipment of 20,000 MW per annum to fully meet India's demand for power generating equipment. BHEL along with NTPC and IGCAR has formed a national consortium for indigenous development and commissioning of 800 MW Advanced Ultra Super Critical (AUSC) Power Plant in India under the National Mission on Clean Coal (Carbon) Technologies.

Tata Motors Q3FY16 results: Key things to look out for

Not much cheer is expected from Tata Motors from its Q3 results. IIFL expects the net profit to drop 6.9% YoY to Rs. 3314.9 crores. The revenue is expected to clock Rs. 73,277 crore, a climb of 4.7% yoy and 19.5% qoq.


Tata Motors is scheduled to announce its Q3FY16 results today. Leaders in passenger and commercial vehicles, Tata Motors posted 16% increase in its global wholesales in January. Global wholesales of PVs as well as CVs were up by 14% and 16% yoy in Jan 2016.

Not much cheer is expected from Tata Motors from its Q3 results. IIFL expects the net profit to drop 6.9% YoY to Rs. 3314.9 crores. The revenue is expected to clock Rs. 73,277 crore, a climb of 4.7% yoy and 19.5% qoq.

During Q3 FY16, volumes for automobile companies recovered except for two‐wheelers where growth remained subdued. Tata Motors saw a reversal in the trend with declines for passenger cars and UVs. JLR has seen a sharp rebound in volume growth on the back of new launches. IIFL expects that the JLR business will see robust improvement on a sequential basis as benefits of operating leverage kick in.

Classifying the company as its "Top Pick", IIFL expects sales volume of Tata Motors to clock 121,390 units, registering a fall of 3.9% yoy and 3.7% qoq. 

Stock View

Tata Motors Ltd is currently trading at Rs. 295.7, up by Rs. 3.85 or 1.32% from its previous closing of Rs. 291.85 on the BSE.

The scrip opened at Rs. 299 and has touched a high and low of Rs. 299.25 and Rs. 292.05 respectively. So far 7281010(NSE+BSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 95599.53 crore.

The BSE group 'A' stock of face value Rs. 2 has touched a 52 week high of Rs. 594.14 on 02-Mar-2015 and a 52 week low of Rs. 279.15 on 29-Sep-2015. Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs. 338.7 and Rs. 289 respectively.

The promoters holding in the company stood at 33.01 % while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 41.04 % and 25.95 % respectively.

The stock is currently trading above its 200 DMA.

S H Kelkar Q3 total income up 17%

EBITDA grew by 146% to Rs. 44 crore from Rs. 18 crore


S H Kelkar and Company, the largest Indian origin Fragrance and Flavours Company in India, has announced its financial results for the quarter & nine-months ended December 31, 2015.
9M FY2016 performance overview compared with 9M FY2015
Total Income increased to Rs. 661 crore from Rs. 600 crore, up by 10%
EBITDA grew by 19% to Rs. 113 crore from Rs. 95 crore
EBITDA margin stood at 17.1%, up by 131 bps
Profit Before Tax and Extraordinary Items grew by 27.4% to Rs 78 crore from Rs 62 crore
Profit After Tax came in at Rs. 54 crore compared to Rs. 49 crore, up 9.4%
Net Operating Profits after Tax (before sale of property and prior period tax credit) grew by 36% to Rs. 53 crore from Rs. 39 crore
EPS amounted to Rs. 4.02 per share

Q3 FY2016 performance overview compared with Q3 FY2015
Total Income increased to Rs. 230 crore from Rs. 196 crore, up by 17%
EBITDA grew by 146% to Rs. 44 crore from Rs. 18 crore
EBITDA margin stood at 19.0%, up by 994 bps
Profit Before Tax and Extraordinary Items grew by 414% to Rs. 33 crore from Rs. 6.5 crore
Profit After Tax came in at Rs. 23 crore compared to Rs. 4 crore

Net Operating Profits after Tax (before sale of property and prior period tax credit) grew by 413% to Rs. 23 crore from Rs. 5 crore
EPS amounted to Rs. 1.74 per share

Key Developments
Board of Directors considered and approved the acquisition of Hi-Tech Technologies (HTT) comprising of Flavours Division

HTT is a Mumbai-based entity and in the business of Manufacturing and Sales of Flavours – it has a manufacturing facility in Daman with FSSA licence and has presence throughout India

HTT’s forecast revenue for FY 2016 is Rs. 22 crore with margin in line with industry benchmarks

Acquisition would be on a slump sale basis, for a net aggregate consideration of Rs. 28.6 crore. Acquisition is targeted to close in Q1 FY 2017

Acquisition in-line with the Company’s plan to pursue strategic tuck-in acquisitions to grow the Flavours business

Balance sheet position significantly strengthened post IPO – Net Debt of Rs. (21) crore as of 31 December 2015

Successfully completed an IPO in November 2015, the proportion of fresh share issue resulted in inflow of Rs. 210 crore

IPO proceeds to be used for paying down debt –full impact to be witnessed in the coming quarters

Commenting on the results, Mr. Kedar Vaze, Chief Executive Officer and Director at SH Kelkar and Company said,

 “I am delighted to report continued strong operational and financial performance in our first publicly reported results post listing. I welcome all our public shareholders and look forward to their participation and support in our journey of sustained growth and progress.
We are the largest Indian-origin Fragrance & Flavour Company with a solid R&D backbone. It is our endeavor to continually raise our market share, enhance the portfolio of our products, expand our customer base and strengthen the bond that we have with our existing customers. Post IPO we have further augmented our Balance Sheet to become a Net Debt free company. With adequate capacities already in place and a business that generates healthy free operating cash flows we are comfortably poised to pursue our strategic initiatives and are excited about our future and our growth prospects.”

Gold prices strengthen further: Our view on Gold stands true!

This week, gold prices have skyrocketed towards the high of US$1,214/oz, helped by currency induced movements, fragile global equity markets and improvement in ETF inflows.



The upside momentum in gold prices during this calendar year justifies our stance, wherein we recommended to increase bullish exposure to the yellow metal. Recently, we wrote an article on 'Why buy gold' and also given our price forecasts.
 
This week, gold prices have skyrocketed towards the high of US$1,214/oz, helped by currency induced movements, fragile global equity markets and improvement in ETF inflows. On investment demand side, holdings in eight major gold ETFs rose to their highest level since July 2015 and recorded their biggest five-week surge since March 2011. In the currency markets, Yen maintained strength against US dollar, with values surging to 15 month high of 113.3. Euro also move higher towards the 1.13 level, while sterling scaled above 1.45. The markets are also deriving impetus from Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s testimony to US Senate. Although Yellen stated that the central bank will not likely undo the process of policy normalization, she tried to strike a balancing tone by acknowledging that financial conditions in US have recently deteriorated and if they prolong then it can adversely impact the economy and labour markets. Investors are now focussing on what central bank intends to do in March and consensus clearly calls for no change in the interest rates during the first half of this year. Considering the overall dovish perception on the monetary policy stance, we expect US dollar to lose further ground against the basket of currencies and provide the fuel for gold prices to extend the upside.

Cipla down 3%; Q3 net profit at Rs.343.20 crore

The company reported consolidated net profit of Rs.343.20 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015, registering growth of 4.68% yoy, but decline of 20.42% qoq.


Cipla
Cipla stock was lower by 3% at Rs.523. The company reported consolidated net profit of Rs.343.20 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015, registering growth of 4.68% yoy, but decline of 20.42% qoq.

Cipla Ltd is currently trading at Rs. 525.1, down by Rs. 13.75 or 2.55% from its previous closing of Rs. 538.85 on the BSE.

The scrip opened at Rs. 533 and has touched a high and low of Rs. 540 and Rs. 521.05 respectively. So far 1455192(NSE+BSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 43287.01 crore.

The BSE group 'A' stock of face value Rs. 2 has touched a 52 week high of Rs. 752.45 on 10-Mar-2015 and a 52 week low of Rs. 535 on 10-Feb-2016. Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs. 575.75 and Rs. 535 respectively.

The promoters holding in the company stood at 36.79 % while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 34.79 % and 26.33 % respectively.

The stock is currently trading above its 200 DMA.

Lakshmi Vilas Bank drops 1.8%; cuts base rate by 0.15%

The bank has cut the minimum lending rate by 0.15% to 10.55% with effect from February 8, 2016.


Lakshmi Vilas Bank
Lakshmi Vilas Bank slipped 1.8% to Rs.92 on BSE. The bank has cut the minimum lending rate by 0.15% to 10.55% with effect from February 8, 2016.

The scrip opened at Rs. 94 and has touched a high and low of Rs. 94 and Rs. 92 respectively. So far 4693(NSE+BSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 1681.56 crore.

The BSE group 'B' stock of face value Rs. 10 has touched a 52 week high of Rs. 111.45 on 29-Apr-2015 and a 52 week low of Rs. 63.5 on 25-Aug-2015. Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs. 96.45 and Rs. 85.05 respectively.

The promoters holding in the company stood at 9.66 % while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 7.73 % and 82.61 % respectively.

The stock is currently trading above its 50 DMA.