Thursday, 28 January 2016

Daily Market Strategy – Changing by the moment! F&O expiry to swing indices

Back home, the outlook is a positive start. Indices could swing wildly as F&O expiry comes into play today. The January jolt has kept many investors on the backfoot and FII selling has been one of the highest for the month of January since 2008.


Who you are moment to moment is just a story. - Chuck Palahniuk
 
The Fed story was on expected lines as  the US central bank chose to keep interest rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting. However, Fed was not as dovish as market participants were expecting, considering the fragile global economic landscape and tumbling equities. Although Fed stated that it is closely monitoring global economic developments, it reiterated its moderately optimistic outlook on US economy, elaborating that rate hike will be gradual and data-driven. This implies that the central bank will persist with the process of policy normalization.  It appears that contemporary central banks are too fickle and they can mince their words, considering the prevalent deterioration in global economic picture. 
 
Back home, the outlook is a positive start. Indices could swing wildly as F&O expiry comes into play today. The January jolt has kept many investors on the backfoot and FII selling has been one of the highest for the month of January since 2008. ICICI Bank and Bharti Airtel earnings will be in limelight today. US stock indices fell but Asian markets are in the green for now. The Dow fell 1.4% while S&P 500 lost over a percent. Nasdaq lost 2.2%. US crude oil futures, which were lower in the morning, rebounded to settle 2.7% higher at US$32.33 a barrel on Wednesday after news reports that Russia and OPEC discussed production cuts.

Cognizant announced that it has acquired privately-held KBACE Technologies, Inc., a global consulting and technology services company specializing in cloud strategy, implementation and integration. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
 
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a Stable Outlook on its structured finance ratings across asset classes for FY17.
 
Teabox, the specialty tea company, has raised undisclosed round of financing from Ratan Tata, former chief of the Tata Group, according to reports.
 
Lakshmi Precision Screws hit 10% upper limit at Rs.46.20 after the company said its board approved sale of its entire 49% stake in LPS Bossard Pvt Ltd. The 49% stake is valued at Rs.40.18 crore, the company said.
 
Among stocks to watch today: 
 
Bharti Airtel: Bharti Airtel will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL forecasts the company’s net profit for Q3 FY16 to fall 21.1% to Rs. 25.6 crore yoy and 25.6% qoq.

HDFC: HDFC  reported standalone net profit of Rs. 1,520.51 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015, registering growth of 6.66% yoy but decline of 5.23% qoq. The company’s Net Interest Income (NII) stood at  Rs. 2,390 crore, clocking growth of 10.10% yoy.

Graphite India: Graphite India reported standalone net profit of Rs. 19.70 crore for the quarter, registering decline of 3.43% yoy.

SKS Micro Finance: The company announced a 93.4% jump in its net profit over a year ago, at Rs.79.5 crore, for the third quarter ended December.

Dabur India: Dabur India will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL expects net profit to surge 23.10% to Rs. 348.20 crore yoy and 2.1% qoq.

Maruti Suzuki: Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, one of the leading players in passenger car market, will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL expects net profit to rise 63.4% to Rs. 1,310.50 crore yoy and 6.9% qoq.

Emami: The company will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL forecasts the company’s net profit for Q3 FY16 to fall to Rs. 129.80 crore, at a rate of 29.3% yoy; however, it is expected to rise 111.6% qoq.

United Spirits: The company has posted a net profit of Rs. 41 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 as compared to Rs. 74.7 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.The company’s revenue stood at Rs. 2,650.58 crore, expanded 21.74% yoy.

Rane Engine: Rane Engine Valve reported its net loss at Rs.8.5 crore for the third quarter that ended on December 31, 2015.

Sagar Cements: Sagar Cements, a midsized maker of the commodity, reported standalone net profit of Rs. 3.12 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015, registering growth of 172.97% yoy.

ICICI Bank: ICICI Bank Ltd, the largest private sector lender in India, will announce its will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL expects EBIDTA margin at 3.4%, with a yoy fall of 5 bps and qoq fall of 10 bps.

Neyveli Lignite Corporation: The company has posted a net profit of Rs. 476.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 as compared to Rs. 3,094.70 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.

Ortel Communications: Ortel Communications reported a 37.5% increase in standalone net profit at Rs.3.89 crore for the third quarter that ended on December 31, 2015.

Bharti Infratel: Bharti Infratel, leading telecom tower infrastructures provider, reported consolidated net profit of Rs. 565.40 crore for the quarter ended Q3FY16, registering growth of 11.54% yoy.

Axis Bank: Axis Bank, India’s third largest private sector bank announced its partnership with Apollo Munich Health Insurance Company to offer its customers bespoke health insurance products and services.

Indosolar: The board of directors of Indosolar has informed the exchanges that banks, at their joint lenders’ meeting, have not considered the second restructuring proposal of the company as of now.

SPARC: The pharma company received Sebi nod for rights issue of Rs. 250 crore.

Lakshmi Precision Screws: The company said its board approved sale of its entire 49% stake in LPS Bossard Pvt Ltd. The 49% stake is valued at Rs.40.18 crore.

Granules India: Granules India will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL expects net revenue to increase to Rs. 393 crore at 22.7% yoy and 7% qoq.

RCOM: The company is likely to seal mobile tower deal with Tillman Global Holdings and TPG Capital in two weeks. The company increased its capital expenditure for the current financial year and next fiscal to about Rs. 4,000 crore.

Shanthi Gears: Shanthi Gears, power transmission products manufacturer, reported standalone net profit of Rs. 5.15 crore for the quarter ended December 31,2015, registering growth of 36.96% yoy.

Kirloskar Oil: Kirloskar Oil Engines reported a 36% decrease in net profit at Rs.21.8 crore for the third quarter that ended on December 31, 2015.

Kajaria Ceramics: The company has posted a net profit after taxes, Minority Interest and Share of Profit/(Loss) of Associates of Rs. 581.90 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 as compared to Rs. 456.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.

Colgate Palmolive: The company has posted a net profit of Rs. 159 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 as compared to Rs. 130.8 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.

BEL: Bharat Electronics Ltd has posted a net profit of Rs. 296 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 as compared to Rs. 271.8 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.

Havells India: The company reported an increase of 3.92% in standalone net profit at Rs. 120.77 crore for the December quarter.

SKF India: The company announced its solar mission with the inauguration of one of the largest rooftop solar installations among manufacturing companies in Pune, with 1MW capacity.

Aurobindo Pharma: The pharma company has received final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Voriconazole Tablets, 50 mg and 200 mg.

Ramco Systems: The company said that AAI Worldwide Logistics Inc., and its new express courier business unit: Black Arrow Express will deploy its Logistics Software to streamline to streamline domestic and international freight forwarding operations.

Godrej Consumer: Godrej Consumer reported a 23% rise in consolidated net profit for the quarter ended 31 December on account of lower commodity costs and stringent cost management.

National Buildings Construction Corporation Ltd: The company said it has bagged a Rs21.5bn order from the Indian Trade Promotion Organisation for redevelopment of exhibition venue PragatiMaidan in New Delhi.

HCC: The company will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL forecasts the company’s net profit for Q3 FY16 to tank to Rs. 8.9 crore, at a rate of 67.30% yoy.

Aegis Logistics: The company will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL expects net profit to fall 23.1% to Rs. 30 crore yoy; however, it is expected to rise 11.1% qoq.

Mirza International: Mirza International Ltd, manufacturer and Marketeer of leather and leather footwear, reported standalone net profit of Rs. 15.08 crore for the quarter, registering decline of 2.89% yoy.

Century Ply: The company will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL forecasts the company’s net profit for Q3 FY16 to marginally rise to Rs. 414.90 crore, growing at a rate of 0.3% yoy; however, it is expected to fall 10.3% qoq.
 
Results: ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki India,Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Vedanta, Dabur India,Gujarat Pipavav Port, Emami, Aegis Logistics,Granules India,Igarashi Motors India,ION Exchange,Jyothy Laboratories,Kirloskar Ferrous Industries,State Bank Of Bikaner & Jaipur, Kesar Terminals & Infrastructure, Century Plyboards, Apar Industries Adlabs Entertainment,Asian Granito India, Abm Knowledgeware, Alembic, Alstone Textiles, Andrew Yule & Company,Firstsource Solutions, Apar Industries, Ashnoor Textile Mills, Austin Engineering,Hindustan Construction Co, Benares Hotels, Bhilwara Technical Textiles, Conart Engineers, Cupid, Empire Industries, Esha Media Research, Fervent Synergies, Frontier Capital, Futuristic Solutions, GHCL, Mafatlal Industries, Mahamaya Steel Industries,Mahindra Lifespace Developers,Muthoot Finance,Info Edge (india),noida Toll Bridge Company,Oil Country Tubular, Radhe Developers, South India Paper Mills, Sterlite Technologies, Symphony, Syndicate Bank, Tide Water Oil, Titan Company, TRF, Vimta Labs 
 
Global Data: Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) AUD, Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) AUD, Vehicle Production (YoY) (Dec) JPY, Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec) EUR, Import Price Index (YoY) (Dec) EUR, Unemployment Survey (Q4) EUR, Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)EUR, Wage Inflation (MoM) (Dec)EUR, Wage Inflation (YoY) (Dec)EUR, Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)Preliminar GBP, Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)Preliminar GBP, Index of Services (3M/3M) (Nov) GBP, 10-y Bond Auction EUR, Consumer Confidence (Jan) EUR, Services Sentiment (Jan) EUR, Industrial Confidence (Jan) EUR, Business Climate (Jan) EUR, Economic Sentiment Indicator (Jan) EUR, CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) (Jan) GBP, Business Confidence (Jan) EUR, Consumer Confidence (Jan) EUR, Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jan)Preliminar EUR, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar EUR, Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar  EUR, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Jan)Preliminar EUR, Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 22) USD, Continuing Jobless Claims (Jan 15) USD, Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Dec) USD, Durable Goods Orders (Dec) USD, Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) USD, Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Dec) USD, EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Jan 22) USD, Kansas Fed manufacturing activity (Jan) USD, 7-Year Note Auction USD, Building Permits s.a. (MoM) (Dec) NZD, Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Jan) JPY, Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) JPY, Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) (Jan) JPY, National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) JPY, National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (Dec) JPY, National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (Dec) JPY, Jobs/applicants ratio (Dec) JPY, Unemployment Rate (Dec) JPY, Overall Household Spending (YoY) (Dec) JPY, Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)Preliminar JPY, Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)Preliminar JPY
 
Trends in FII flows: The FIIs were net sellers of Rs.3.66 bn in the cash segment on Wednesday. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs.4.99 bn as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.
 
Other news in the media:
 
To reduce overall costs, SpiceJet is re-negotiating contracts related to aircraft lease, engineering, maintenance and other areas as some of the pacts are "out of sync" with realities, airline's chief Ajay Singh said.
 
SKF India has set up a 1-MW roof-top solar plant at its Pune facility and is expected to generate 1.5GwH units every year. It is part of company's ongoing solar mission across its facilities in India. This initiative is expected to reduce SKF Pune facility's CO2 emission by about 1,200 metric tons per annum.
 
Reliance Infrastructure arm Mumbai Metro One Pvt Ltd (MMOPL), which operates 11.4 km Mumbai metro, mulls conversion of its Rs21bn long term loan into a dollar loan. This is in line with company's attempt to bring down annual interest cost which is Rs2.10bn. (BS)
 
After exiting from Viom Networks, Kolkata-based Srei group is looking to enter the telecom tower business once again outside India in geographies such as East Europe, Russia, West Asia and Africa through Quippo.
 
Cognizant has acquired privately-held KBACE Technologies, Inc., a global consulting and technology services company specialising in cloud strategy, implementation and integration. The deal size was not disclosed. 
 
The Supreme Court rejected the special leave petition filed by Reliance Infrastructure'sarm, Mumbai Metro One Pvt Ltd (MMOPL), against the Bombay High Court's decision to stay the fare hike proposal. Based on the recommendations of the Fare Fixation Committee (FFC) recommendations made in July last year, MMOPL had proposed to revise the fare band to Rs 10-110 from the present level of Rs 10, 20, 30, 40. 
 
Upbeat about a rise in aluminium consumption in India, Navaratna PSU Nalco is all set to invest Rs300bn in various projects in the next five years. 
 
After completing construction of its 15-million tonne crude oil refinery at Paradeep, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) is now eyeing to fast track its petrochemical complex coming up at the same location. IOCL is investing Rs340bn on the petrochemical complex. 
 
Despite a debacle of its previous premium made-ups brand Rosebys, home textiles playerGHCL is now planning to foray into retail again with its own brand.
 
Aurobindo Pharma Limited announced it has received final approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Voriconazole tablets. 
 
Biocon Ltd will conduct on its own the next phase of clinical trials of its oral insulin Tregopil with a larger patient pool including in India, as the company expects the drug, after regulatory approvals, would offer it licensing opportunity to global drug firms.
 
HCL Technologies Ltd announced acquisition of UK's Point to Point Ltd and Point to Point Products Ltd for Rs780mn.
 
National Buildings Construction Corporation Ltd said it has bagged a Rs21.5bn order from the Indian Trade Promotion Organisation for redevelopment of exhibition venue Pragati Maidan in New Delhi. 
 
The Centre will offload 10% of its holdings in Engineers India Ltd.
 
Rajasthan has become the third state to sign a memorandum of understanding for joining the central government’s state electricity distribution utility revival scheme. Under the UDAY scheme, the Rajasthan government will take over Rs605bn of the debt on the books of the electricity distribution utilities. The remaining Rs200bn will be issued as state guaranteed DISCOM bonds at coupon rates of around 3% lower than the average existing interest rate. 
 
The government approved hybrid annuity model for building roads to fast-track highway projects, revive the Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) mode and attract more investments in the sector. Under this model, the government will provide 40% of the project cost to the developer to start work while the remaining investment has to be made by the developer. 
 
Union Transport Minister, laid the foundation of Mahulia-Baharagora highway in the copper-township of Moubhandar, about 40 km from Jamshedpur, under Ghatsila sub-division.  The 72-km highway on NH 33 and NH 6 in East Singhbhum bordering West Bengal will be developed at a cost of Rs9bn.
 
The Centre issued a fresh coastal regulation zone (CRZ) clearance to the ambitious 22-km Mumbai Trans Harbour Link project worth Rs113.70bn.

TEN MOST ACTIVE FUTURES
Symbol
No.of Cont Traded
Last price
Open Interest
% chg in Op.Int
SBIN
28,898
184.75
32,462,000
-24.69
AXISBANK
27,812
414.80
16,892,000
-40.39
ICICIBANK
25,192
236.75
27,368,300
-33.44
LT
23,516
1,105.50
6,425,400
-29.28
RELIANCE
21,747
1,000.30
9,006,500
-34.01
MARUTI
19,035
4,102.50
1,070,625
-32.87
INFY
16,976
1,137.30
5,390,000
-37.73
YESBANK
16,563
676.70
5,491,500
-48.30
TATASTEEL
16,412
257.65
10,856,000
-48.65
HDFC
15,504
1,168.00
4,458,000
-38.42
TEN MOST ACTIVE OPTIONS
Option Type
Strike price
No.of Cont Traded
Open Interest
% Chg in Op.In
SBIN
CE
190
6,522
4,468,000
0.63
RELIANCE
CE
1,020
6,393
1,217,500
3.66
SBIN
CE
185
5,539
1,886,000
-7.82
GAIL
CE
360
5,106
135,800
24.36
TATASTEEL
CE
260
4,275
1,986,000
-27.94
SBIN
PE
180
4,010
2,416,000
39.65
TATASTEEL
PE
250
3,590
2,392,000
10.54
RCOM
CE
65
3,519
3,976,000
161.58
RELCAPITAL
CE
380
3,476
624,000
18.52
TATAMOTORS
CE
340
3,413
1,117,500
18.82
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL
Company Name
S3
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
R3
Sensex Index
24,369
24,399
24,430
24,492
24,554
24,586
24,616
Nifty Index
7,399
7,409
7,419
7,438
7,457
7,467
7,476
ABB Ltd
963
965
967
972
976
979
981
ACC
1,217
1,220
1,224
1,231
1,238
1,242
1,245
Ambuja Cements
188
189
190
192
194
195
196
Bajaj Holdings
1,449
1,452
1,456
1,462
1,468
1,471
1,474
BHEL
135
136
137
140
142
143
145
Bharti Airte
293
294
295
298
300
302
303
Cipla
572
574
576
581
585
587
589
Dabur India
233
234
235
237
239
240
241
GAIL India
350
352
354
358
362
364
366
Grasim Ind.
3,388
3,398
3,407
3,427
3,446
3,456
3,465
HCL Tech
829
830
832
835
839
840
842
HDFC Bank
1,025
1,027
1,030
1,036
1,041
1,044
1,047
Hero Honda
2,437
2,448
2,460
2,482
2,505
2,516
2,527
Hindalco
70
70
71
71
72
72
72
Hindustan Unilever
756
759
762
768
774
777
779
ICICI Bank
234
235
235
237
238
239
240
Infosys Tech
1,129
1,131
1,134
1,138
1,143
1,145
1,147
ITC Ltd
308
309
310
313
315
316
317
L&T
1,092
1,096
1,100
1,107
1,115
1,119
1,123
MTNL
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
M&M
1,156
1,161
1,167
1,177
1,187
1,193
1,198
Maruti Suzuki
4,055
4,068
4,082
4,109
4,136
4,150
4,163
Mahindra Satyam
491
494
497
503
509
513
516
National Alumin
34
34
34
35
35
35
35
ONGC
215
216
217
218
220
221
222
Oriental Bank
108
109
111
114
116
118
119
PNB
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
Ranbaxy Labs
813
815
817
821
826
828
830
Reliance Capital
368
370
373
377
382
384
386
Reliance Comm
61
62
62
63
64
65
65
Reliance Energy
440
443
446
452
459
462
465
Reliance Inds
990
993
995
999
1,004
1,006
1,008
R Power
49
50
50
50
51
51
51
Siemens India
990
995
1,000
1,011
1,021
1,027
1,032
SBI
181
182
183
184
186
187
188
TCS
2,290
2,297
2,305
2,320
2,334
2,342
2,349
Tata Motors
332
333
335
337
340
341
342
Tata Power
61
61
61
61
62
62
62
Tata Steel
253
254
256
258
260
261
262
Tata comm
391
393
394
398
401
403
405
Wipro
547
548
549
552
555
557
558
Wire And Wireless
36
36
36
36
36
37
37
Zee Entertainment
392
393
394
396
398
399
400

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