Thursday, 28 May 2015

Bearish momentum in the Pound/Dollar continues

The indications from the Queen’s speech that a bill on an EU referendum will be rushed through parliament, at the same time as UK Prime Minister David Cameron begins his negotiations with EU leaders, has also provided the bears with additional encouragement to drag the pair lower.

The recent close below 1.55 was a critical blow for the Pound/Dollar bulls, and the bears have continued to exploit each opportunity to increase selling pressure with the pair still looking technically vulnerable to further declines. The indications from the Queen’s speech that a bill on an EU referendum will be rushed through parliament, at the same time as UK Prime Minister David Cameron begins his negotiations with EU leaders, has also provided the bears with additional encouragement to drag the pair lower. In general though, the UK economic data outflow has been really thin this week, meaning that the Dollar has provided direction for the Pound. With the Dollar enjoying a fresh round of bullish momentum, this has further inspired the Pound/Dollar to slide down the charts.
 
Why do I think the Pound/Dollar is still vulnerable to further declines? If the upcoming preliminary UK GDP reading shows that economic momentum is slowing down and this pushes back BoE interest rate expectations, then the Pound/Dollar will continue drifting lower until at least 1.52.
 
The Euro also continued to decline throughout trading, although this pressure came to a pause when reports emerged from Greece that a deal with its creditors is close to being finalised. There are going to be concerns over whether these encouraging reports will be contradicted later on, but the positive news would be that the risk of a Greece default next week would be avoided if a deal is struck. I just hope that if a deal is finalized that this time it is a real agreement to conclude the discussions with creditors, and not just another extension for further negotiations to continue with an extended deadline. 

Sensex, Nifty slip into negative zone

The BSE Mid-cap Index is trading down 0.22% at 10,593, whereas BSE Small-cap Index is trading up 0.01% at 11,162. 

The market has pared most of its early gains, due to correction in pharma and power shares ahead of futures & options expiry.

Now, the BSE Sensex is down 35 points at 27,530 and the NSE Nifty is down 13 points at 8,322.

The BSE Mid-cap Index is trading down 0.22% at 10,593, whereas BSE Small-cap Index is trading up 0.01% at 11,162.

Sectorwise, the BSE Consumer Durables index has gained 0.5 percent at 10,530. The Metal, Capital Goods, Auto and IT indices are also up 0.2-0.3 percent each.

On the other hand, the Healthcare index has declined 0.3 percent at 16,791 and the Power index is slightly down at 2,063.

The breadth is favour of the bulls - out of 1,916 stocks so far traded on the BSE 1,062 stocks are advancing, while 769 stocks are declining.

Among Sensex-30 stocks - Tata Motors has jumped almost 2 percent at Rs. 481, on account of value-buying.

Hero MotoCorp and Vedanta have spurted over a percent each at Rs. 2,640 and Rs. 194, respectively.

Coal India, Infosys and Reliance are the other notable gainers.

On the losing side, Hindalco has slipped 1.5 percent to Rs. 132, ahead of earnings today.

Tata Power and Mahindra & Mahindra have also dropped over a percent each at Rs. 75 and Rs. 1,210, respectively. 

Infosys expects $20 bn revenue target by 2020: Vishal Sikka

Sikka added that Infosys has the potential to become a leading IT services company in the world, says report. 

Infosys
Infosys CEO and Managing Director Vishal Sikka has reportedly said that the management's mission is to prepare the company for realising goal of achieving US$ 20 bn revenue by 2020.

Sikka added that Infosys has the potential to become a leading IT services company in the world, says report.

"Going forward, I see tremendous potential for us to grow and lead, " says Sikka.

In a letter to stakeholders in the company's Annual Report for 2014-15, Sikka reported, "I believe we have a promising year ahead in the near term."

HDFC Bank makes investment in CarDekho.com

This investment comes on the heels of a Series B funding of US$50mn from Hill House Capital, Tybourne Capital, Sequoia and Ratan Tata. 

In a first-of-its kind partnership in the Indian auto space, CarDekho.com announced an investment in the company by HDFC Bank. This investment comes on the heels of a Series B funding of US$50mn from Hill House Capital, Tybourne Capital, Sequoia and Ratan Tata.
 
The total size of the Indian car loan market is Rs. 80,000 crore & HDFC Bank is a clear leader with 35% market share. CarDekho trumps the online car research market with over 17 million visits on its portal every month which constitutes 10 million unique buyers. Further, close to 75% of the car buyers on CarDekho opt for a financing option.  With nearly 5000 dealer partners, CarDekho & Gaadi have the largest pan-India car dealer footprint amongst all auto portals.
 
"This unique partnership with HDFC Bank will help provide the Indian consumer a seamless experience in buying cars and obtaining financing. We want every car buyer in this country to have a pre-approved loan before they even finalise the vehicle that they are seeking. This partnership will re-define how consumers avail new and used car loan finance," said Amit Jain CEO, Girnarsoft.

“We expect digital to have a 25% share of auto loan financing within the next four years and are looking to facilitate a billion dollar of auto loans through CarDekho. Used Car Finance is a classic blue ocean market and CarDekho & HDFC Bank can together build that market. This investment by HDFC Bank is a validation of CarDekho’s leadership as a destination for car buyers and the enabling role we can play in transforming online auto finance,” said Umang Kumar, President, CarDekho & CEO, Gaadi.com.
 
“At HDFC Bank, customer convenience is central to our concept of Digital. We are always looking at new ways to leverage technology and digital platforms to provide customers with the best solutions at the time and place most convenient to them. Increased internet and mobile phone penetration is overhauling the purchase cycle for the Indian car loan consumer, and as market leaders in the auto financing space we want to ensure that we adapt to meet these changing needs. In Car Dekho and Gaadi, we see an integrated business across new cars and used cars. It is led by a passionate team, determined to provide one stop car purchase solutions to Indian car buyers,” said Rakesh Singh, Group Head, Investment Banking, Capital & Commodity Markets, HDFC Bank. 

Indians, marginal polluters. So why cut coal?

India’s annual carbon dioxide emission is 1.93 billion tons, compared to 1.4 billion tons emitted by Japan, the world’s fifth-largest polluter.

India’s development dilemma centres around a basic calculation: the carbon emission for an average Indian is only marginally higher than the carbon dioxide produced in flying one passenger from Tokyo to San Francisco.
 
In other words, while a commonly-cited fact is that India, after China and the USA, is the third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide—the main gas implicated in warming the planet—globally, there is, seemingly, enough data to absolve India of special responsibility.
 
First, the background for this discussion:
 
Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere is at a record high at 404.11 parts per million (ppm), driving extreme weather events, including high temperature, storms and droughts, according to some studies. As IndiaSpend recently reported, the rainfall over rain-dependent India is becoming increasingly uncertain, unsettling the nation’s agriculture, economy and politics.

Another, recent much-debated IndiaSpend story explained how India’s overwhelming dependence on coal was the real reason for the government’s crackdown on the global NGO Greenpeace.
 
Some readers said India’s dependence on coal would be disastrous.
 
Then there's a dirty-in-every-way coalplant NTPC is building a whiff upstream of the #Sundarbans in #Bangladesh https://t.co/VC86tzWCVY
— Arati Kumar-Rao (@AratiKumarRao) May 13, 2015
 
Others argued that doing away with coal would be equally disastrous.
 
@newslaundry @IndiaSpend @ShekharGupta OK, so untill renewables become financially viable, we villagers spend night w/out electricity!
— Parikshit Jakhar (@ParikshitJakhar) May 14, 2015
 
What should India’s path be? Coal-based or not?
 
To find an answer, consider three facts:
 
FACT 1: Citing total emissions is misleading. India’s annual carbon dioxide emission is 1.93 billion tons, compared to 1.4 billion tons emitted by Japan, the world’s fifth-largest polluter. India’s emissions are spread among 1.27 billion people; Japan’s come from 127 million, or a tenth. On average, a citizen of Japan is responsible for seven times as much carbon dioxide as an Indian.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
 
Citizens of countries such as UK, Germany, Canada and US have a carbon footprint between five and 12 times that of an Indian. With one-sixth of the world’s population, India accounts for a twentieth of carbon emissions.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
 
China and the US, with just less than one-quarter of world’s population, account for 44% of current CO2 emissions. Europe (with Russia) accounts for another 20% of emissions. India accounts for 5.5%, so, a vast majority of greenhouse gases are coming from the developed world plus China.
 
FACT 2: It is hard to ignore past responsibility. Per capita data are only part of the jigsaw. CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere has not been emitted only over the past couple of years or decades. It has been building up for more than 100 years, since the West started industrialising. The pace picked up over the past 50 years, as incomes and consumption increased, and many developing countries also started to grow.
 
Between 1965 and 2013, as much as 1.1 trillion tons of CO2 was emitted (refer Table 2). Europe (including Russia) accounts for 33.3% of this total, while the US has a share of 24.3%. So, the West has been responsible for 57.6% of CO2 emitted over the past 48 years. If China and Japan are included, the combined share goes up to 76.2%, more than three-quarters of all carbon dioxide emissions over this period.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
 
A small set of nations—Europe, US, China and Japan—has been responsible for global warming so far, and continues to account for the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions. India’s contribution is relatively marginal and continues to remain 80% below the world average.
 
How right, then, are leaders from the US and Europe, when they urge India to do more to curb emissions?
 
FACT 3: As India develops, CO2 emissions will rise. The reasons for low per-capita emissions from India are obvious:
  • As much as 25% of Indians still don’t have access to electricity.
  • Automobile ownership in India is 13 vehicles per 1,000, compared to 439 in the USA, 617 in Japan and 34 in China.
  • Indians fly less than nationals of other major economies—though India has the second-largest population, it is the ninth-largest aviation market. UK, which has a population 1/20th of India sees more people flying annually.
  • As India industrialises and incomes increase, more Indians will use electricity and drive vehicles and fly, leading to increased carbon emissions.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, World Bank
 
There is no feasible way of restricting carbon emissions—short of stopping use of all fossil fuels—coal, oil and natural gas. These three fuels account for 86.6% of the world energy consumption.
 
Dirty and desirable: The role of coal
 
Among the three major fossil fuels, coal is considered the dirtiest.
 
However, it is less than one-fourth the price of either oil or natural gas, and more widely available. This is why coal is more widely used in lower-income countries, such as India.
 
As incomes increase, countries try to move away from coal, as the development trajectories of western Europe and the USA indicate.
 
India is also the world’s third-largest user of coal (refer Table 4).
 
Coal is a major bugbear for a number of environmental organisations such as Greenpeace and Sierra Club. This has lead to confrontations, such as the ban on foreign funding for Greenpeace in India.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
 
India accounts for just 8.5% of the world’s coal usage, while it has 17.5% of the world’s people. China is the runaway leader, accounting for just over half the coal burnt globally.
 
And, so, to India’s limited options
 
As we explained, India has not been responsible for global carbon emissions in the past, and its current emissions are way below the needs of its population.
 
However, if India follows China’s route of development by burning more coal, the consequences for the planet—and India—are likely to be devastating. This will further worsen as other developing nations with large populations, such as Bangladesh, Nigeria and Pakistan, follow this route.
 
The argument goes that as a responsible nation, India needs to move away from coal and increase the use of low-pollution energy sources, mainly nuclear power, hydropower, natural gas and renewable energy.
 
The problem with these sources is that they are costlier than coal and not as easily available. In many cases, such as renewable energy and nuclear power, the technology isn’t freely available to India; much of it must be imported from the West.
 
If India chooses more expensive forms of energy over coal, it will contribute to global common good—at its own immediate economic cost, as we will see tomorrow.

Speciality Restaurants Q4 net profit at Rs.1.9 crore

Speciality Restaurants
The total income was at Rs.73.6 Crore.

Speciality Restaurants Q4 net profit stands at Rs.1.9 crore.

The total income was at Rs.73.6 Crore 

US court rejects Infosys plea

Judge Pamela Pepper granted some relief to Infosys, but did not rule against the claim of racial discrimination, report says,

Infosys Tech
A district court in the US rejected Infosys plea, to dismiss a discrimination lawsuit filed by a few IT workers, says report.

According to reports, four IT workers had alleged they were discriminated against because they were not South Asian, Indian, Bangladeshi or Nepalese.

Judge Pamela Pepper granted some relief to Infosys, but did not rule against the claim of racial discrimination, report says,

The stock was up by 1% at Rs. 1982.

The stock has hit a high of Rs. 1993 and a low of Rs. 1976.

Gammon Infra skyrockets on RBI nod for fresh FII buying

The Central Bank has now allowed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to invest up to 49 per cent of the paid-up capital in Gammon Infrastructure Projects.

Gammon India
Gammon Infrastructure Projects skyrocketed almost 20 percent to a high of Rs. 13.35 in opening deals on RBI approval for fresh FII buying at the counter.

According to media reports, the Central Bank has now allowed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to invest up to 49 per cent of the paid-up capital in Gammon Infrastructure Projects.

The stock is now up 14.6 percent at Rs. 12.78. The counter has seen huge volume of around 157,000 shares as against the two-week daily average volume of around 109,000 shares on the BSE.

Meanwhile, the Sensex has pared gains and is now up 39 points at 27,604. 

United Spirits in red on MCA probe

The stock is down over 0.5 percent in opening deals 

United Spirits
United Spirits is trading on a slippery note following news report that the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) will probe alleged irregularities in the books of accounts of the company.

The stock so far in the day has touched a low of Rs. 3,472, and is now down 0.6 percent at Rs. 3,488. Around 2,050-odd shares have changed hands in the first few minutes of trade this morning.

The stock has been in a downtrend for the third day now. In the process, United Spirits has shed as much as 7 percent so far.

Meanwhile, the Sensex has advanced 79 points to 27,643. 

Top corporate news of the day - May 28, 2015

Dabur announced a partnership with Sulabh International, a social service organisation focused on sanitation, to drive personal cleanliness and hygiene, and inculcate the habit of using toilets.

Newspaper
Dabur announced a partnership with Sulabh International, a social service organisation focused on sanitation, to drive personal cleanliness and hygiene, and inculcate the habit of using toilets.

Essar Steel, which has been in the news after HDFC Bank sold a loan down to asset reconstruction companies, has taken a series of steps to strengthen its balance sheet. 

Vedanta Resources Plc will aim to lift a court-imposed cap on its iron-ore output in Goa, as it prepares to resume mining there in October after a three-year lull.

M&M to launch nine vehicles this year. The launches, including refreshes and all-new models, will be in both the personal and commercial segments. 

Mahindra and Mahindra, which entered the two-wheeler business six years ago, will intensify marketing efforts to grow its market share by five-fold to about 5%. 

Vodafone has said it has invested Rs.10.5bn to strengthen its network presence in Maharashtra & Goa circle during fiscal year 2015. 

Tanzania's government has agreed a deal to buy back a 35% stake in a state-run telecoms company from the local subsidiary of Bharti Airtel for 14.6bn shillings. 

Balrampur Chini Mills is planning to invest Rs.2000mn in its three units to enhance the production capacity of ethanol. 

Jyothy Laboratories may induct its detergent powder Mr White into its list of power brands by next year.

Daimler India Commercial Vehicle inaugurated its new bus manufacturing facility set up at an investment of Rs. 4250mn at Oragadam, near Chennai.

Top Economy news of the day- May 28, 2015

Government's total debt increased by 0.9% in the fourth quarter ended March 31, over the previous thee-month period of the current financial. 

News-letters-on-newspapers
Government's total debt increased by 0.9% in the fourth quarter ended March 31, over the previous thee-month period of the current financial.

The government has said that FIPB's approval will not be required for merger and acquisitions in sectors where FDI is allowed under automatic route.

The government will "abide by Supreme Court directions" on allowing Genetically Modified crops in the country. 

Wall Street ends mixed

Among the Asian indices, Japan's Nikkei 225 is over half a percent higher.


Global cues are mixed. Dow Jones gained 0.67%, 

S&P 500 added 0.92% and Nasdaq was up 1.47%.  

Among the Asian indices, Japan's Nikkei 225 is over half a percent higher, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is trading a percent lower while China's Shanghai index has gained a percent. 

Rupee opens at 63.98/$

he local unit hit a low of 64.38 and a high of 64.28 against the US dollar. 

The rupee today opened at 63.98 against the US dollar. The local unit hit a low of 64.38 and a high of 64.28 against the US dollar.

On Wednesday, the rupee closed at 64.02 against the US dollar. FIIs have been hitting the sell button for most part of may be it debt or equities. In fact, the month is on course to witness largest outflows since August 2013, says a report as FIIs have this month sold $1.79 billion worth of debt and equity.

Global cues are mixed. Dow Jones gained 0.67%, S&P 500 added 0.92% and Nasdaq was up 1.47%.  Among the Asian indices, Japan's Nikkei 225 is over half a percent higher, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is trading a percent lower while China's Shanghai index has gained a percent.

The mid-cap carnage has hit not just retail investors but FIIs too. About 100 stocks, in which FIIs hold more than 10%, have fallen more than 70% in the last three years, says a report.