Thursday, 24 September 2015

We expect the RBI to deliver a 25 bps repo rate cut on 29 September: HSBC

For a central bank in an “accommodative mode”, these three, in our view, should be sufficient in its bid to support economic recovery. Following the 25bps action, the RBI will have delivered a total of 100bp in rate cuts, taking the policy repo rate to its long term average of 7%. With a 12-month transmission lag, it is hoped that if 2015 was the year of rate cuts, 2016 will be the year of transmission into lower lending rates, providing some support to growth.


We expect the RBI to cut the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the upcoming policy meeting on 29th September. It had laid out three conditions for more easing in the last policy meeting. Its first condition of inflationary pressures receding has been met. The two CPI prints after the last policy meeting indicate lower inflationary pressures (see chart 1). 

The second condition of sufficient monsoon outturn, while not technically met, is not yet posing a huge problem. Rains have been 13% below normal, but the intriguing web of its spatial and regional distribution, together with soft global commodity prices and nimble steps on food supply back home, have helped keep a lid on generalised price rises, at least thus far.   

The third condition of impact from Fed action stands good for now. With the Fed staying on hold in September, pressures on emerging market currencies have eased, providing a window for the RBI to cut rates. 

For a central bank in an “accommodative mode”, these three, in our view, should be sufficient in its bid to support economic recovery. Following the 25bps action, the RBI will have delivered a total of 100bp in rate cuts, taking the policy repo rate to its long term average of 7%. With a 12-month transmission lag, it is hoped that if 2015 was the year of rate cuts, 2016 will be the year of transmission into lower lending rates, providing some support to growth.   

Having said this, what is getting increasingly complex on the sidelines, is the macro-economic mix and outlook. These may have implications for RBI’s commentary and future stance. 

The macro brew is getting stranger
Monetary policy making is getting trickier. Inflation and growth, the two variables RBI monitors are imparting confusing signals. For instance, consider these – 

On inflation –
 
Divergence in food and core inflation: Till a quarter ago, food inflation was falling while core inflation was high and sticky. In a complete flip-over last month, food prices have inched up sequentially while core inflation is receding (see chart 2). So far the increase in food prices has been concentrated on specific items (like onion and pulses), but we continue to monitor a strengthening El Nino just in case it causes more havoc into next year. In the meanwhile this chance negative relation between food and core, is making a call on their net impact and thereby inflation forecasts a tad tricky.
 
Service inflation conundrum: One commonly held reason for the divergence between WPI (falling 4.95% y-o-y in August) and CPI inflation (rising 3.7% y-o-y in August) is that the latter includes the non-tradable services sector, which tends to have higher inflation, while the former does not.

This argument held well until we got the April-June quarter GDP data. The services sector deflator contained within GVA fell 0.5% y-o-y. On the other hand, headline CPI and core CPI inflation around the same time were growing at a higher clip of 5.1% and 5.6% respectively. 

So now it seems there is some divergence, even within the service sector. Some services are more tradable than others (see chart 3). And perhaps, services used squarely by final consumers are more inflationary than those used by the rest of the economy. This again, makes the job of inflation forecasting a notch harder. 

On growth –
 
Indirect tax up, but direct tax down: Indirect taxes have grown 35% y-o-y in the April-July months. The government estimates that even after scrubbing off changes in tax rates, it grew at a healthy clip of 14.6% y-o-y. But if this is a sign of healthy recovery, why are direct taxes only growing 1% y-o-y during the same period (see chart 4). There are no clear answers …  
 
Urban vs rural consumption; private vs. public investment: who wins? The remains from the tug of war between improving urban consumption and languishing rural demand will be a key determinant of overall economic growth (see chart 5). On investments, the strength and sustainability of public investment whilst private investment is lacklustre will be a determinant of not just growth but also medium term inflation.  
 
Next year’s impossible trinity: Switching from current expenditure to capex has been a laudable step taken by the central government this year. But come next year, with its 7th pay commission commitments, one of the three objectives - fiscal consolidation, higher capex and a higher wage bill - may have to give. If it is capex, then the switch back from capex to current spending would have implications for both growth and inflation. This will have important bearings which RBI would need to start accounting for from now, given transmission lags.

Why a change in stance is in order … 
Given these confusions and uncertainties, often times typical of recovery episodes, RBI will have to tread carefully. Since pressures on inflation and growth exist on both sides, and the RBI has lent a helping hand to growth through 2015, the central bank may be well placed to shift to a balanced stance at this juncture. 

The move from an accommodative to a balanced mode will also help the RBI brace for its next big target: 5% CPI inflation by beginning 2017, a time during which economic growth is expected to pick up pace, putting pressure on core prices. This would require further disinflation in the system given underlying inflation (taking off base effects) is currently at the 5-5.5% range. 

The shift towards a balanced stance is likely to be reflected in the policy statement by extending the inflation fan chart to beyond March 2016 and more discussion on the challenges and prospects of deflating the economy towards 5% inflation. We expect the RBI to go on a prolonged pause following the 29 September meeting. 



 
Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist 

Prithviraj Srinivas, Economist 

Source: HSBC

12 Stocks in focus today

Check out the companies which will be in focus during trade today based on recent and latest news developments.


Stocks to watch
NTPC: NTPC's tax-free bond sales saw overwhelming response perhaps indicating that interest rates could move southwards. The issue was oversubscribed more than 10 times on its opening on Wednesday, as it received Rs 4,417 crore subscription against Rs 400 crore.

Coal India: The company may have to revise its capital expenditure plan in view of the proposed land acquisition bill. “The current estimate of total capex is Rs. 60,000 crore over the next five years. But it may get revised due to land acquisition bill,” Coal India Chairman Sutirtha Bhattacharya said at the company's AGM on Wednesday.

C&C Constructions: The company bagged order worth $141.28 million in Oman.


L&T: Stating that there is little sign of recovery in the domestic economy and that private sector capital expenditure remained at least a year away, L&T executive chairman LN Naik on Wednesday hinted that several L&T factories ready to build defence equipment for Modi's 'Make-in-India' campaign are waiting for orders, signalling stagnation in business.


Aban Offshore: The company that provides drilling and support services for offshore oil exploration and production has announced plans to reduce its debt level by 10 per cent this year from $2.2 billion. It has moved an enabling resolution to get shareholders' approval to raise $400 million through global depositary receipts, American depositary receipts and another Rs 2,500 crore through qualified institutional placements. In 2014, it had raised Rs 750 crore.


Bajaj Auto: The Pune-based two-wheeler maker has secured the certification from Europe for its quadricycle and will be now eligible to export its RE60 to those countries even though its India launch remains uncertain. The quadricycle RE60, which is indigenously developed by Bajaj AutoBSE 0.39 %, has been certified under the European Whole Vehicle Type Approval regulations, after having passed all tests successfully.

Balmer Lawrie: The company on Wednesday announced a capex plan of Rs 400 crore for the next three years. The mini-ratna company will also infuse another Rs 100 crore for further expansion and modernisation of its ongoing activities. All these will go to help the company double its turnover to Rs 3,000 crore over the next five years.

SKS Microfinance announced a 1.25% cut in the interest rate to 20.75% with effect from October 1 for all future disbursals. This is the third interest rate cut and an overall reduction of 3.8% since October 2014.

Rural Electrification Corporation signed an MoU with Andhra Pradesh power utilities to extend a fresh loan of Rs90bn. The Central public sector enterprise, set up with a main objective of financing rural electrification projects in the country, had already extended loans to the tune of Rs280bn for various projects in Andhra Pradesh.

Orient Green Power Co Ltd (OGPL) has raised Rs2.5bn from existing promoter Shriram Venture Ltd (SVL) and its subsidiaries and financial investors, including EW Special Opportunities Fund II and Ecap Equities, through preferential allotment

Sterlite Technologies: The company is set to acquire Elitecore Technologies, a provider of operations and business support services for an overall enterprise value of around Rs. 1.8 bn in an all-cash deal.

Bharti Airtel: The company has signed an agreement to use Liquid Telecom's fibre network to connect its mobile base stations across Africa, which will let its subscribers in the region to access better speeds on its 3G and 4G networks. The company, however, did not share the financial details of the deal.

Suzlon: The company has bagged contracts from SMEs and public sector undertakings (PSU) to supply 50 turbines of 2.1 MW each in various parts of the country. It will supply its multi-megawatt S95-90m, S97- 90m, S97-120m turbines and will leverage on its turnkey wind solutions expertise to oversee the project operations from start to end. 

Rupee opens at 66.20/$

The currency touched a high and low of 65.19/$ and 65.25/$ respectively.


rupee open
Indian Rupee today opened at 66.20 against the dollar in early trade on Thursday. Indian rupee remained under pressure, as market participants remain cautious ahead of the RBI monetary policy review next week. Although the consensus calls for a cut in the repo rate by at least 25 basis points, markets focus will be more accentuated on the stance which Mr. Rajan endorses. The language of the central bank will determine the broader trend of the markets. We expect a rate cut accompanied with a cautious outlook, considering that the progress on the monsoon has been disappointing and the dust has not yet settled down on the probability of US Fed hiking interest rates.

On Wednesday, the Indian currency ended at 65.97, weaker by 10 paise. The currency touched a high and low of 65.19/$ and 65.25/$ respectively. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) reference rate for the dollar stood at 65.96 and for Euro stood at 73.37 onSeptember 23, 2015. While, the RBI’s reference rate for the Yen stood at 54.92, the reference rate for the Great Britain Pound (GBP) stood at 101.1908.

Coal India may have to revise Rs. 600 bn capex estimate

CIL is planning to raise coal production from underground mining to 100 million tonnes in the next 10 years, CIL Director (Technical) N. Kumar said.


Coal India
Coal India Ltd. (CIL) may have to revise its capital expenditure plan in view of the proposed land acquisition bill. “The current estimate of total capex is Rs. 60,000 crore over the next five years. But it may get revised due to land acquisition bill,” Coal India Chairman Sutirtha Bhattacharya said at the company's AGM on Wednesday.

CIL had envisaged capex of Rs. 60,000 crore to ramp up production to 908 million tonnes.

“There are some issues with regard to land acquisition. The final capex amount will eventually depend on the amount of land acquired,” Bhattacharya said.

A large portion of the money would go towards acquisition of land required for mining of coal and the rest for buying machinery and equipment for the same, the CIL Chairman said.

CIL requires 20,000 acres in next five years to achieve its target of 908 million tonnes. The cost of land acquisition would depend on the proposed land bill which seeks higher compensation.

Separately, CIL Chairman told the shareholders that the company was in talks for acquiring mining assets overseas.

“We are pursuing diplomatic channels while pursuing these assets. We are in talks with various countries for buying mining assets,” Bhattacharya said.

CIL is planning to raise coal production from underground mining to 100 million tonnes in the next 10 years, CIL Director (Technical) N. Kumar said.

“We are looking at ways to increase underground mining production. Currently, nearly 93% of Coal India’s total production comes from open cast mines,” Kumar said.

RBI unveils draft ECB policy...to relax some rules

The RBI proposed to allow domestic companies to borrow money from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurance funds as part of the ECBs.


RBI
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday proposed relaxing some rules for domestic companies looking to raise funds through the external commercial borrowing (ECB).

The RBI said that companies will now be able to borrow up to US$50mn in ECBs with 3-year maturities and more than US$50mn for 5-year maturities. The previous limits had been ~US$20mn.

The RBI also said that it would now allow real estate investment trusts (REIT) and infrastructure investment trusts (IIT) to raise rupee-denominated funds offshore.

The RBI proposed to allow domestic companies to borrow money from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and insurance funds as part of the ECBs.

The draft framework on ECB proposed to lower the all-in cost borrowing by 0.50% to ensure that the funds are borrowed from abroad at a reasonable interest rate.

The modification in the ECB guidelines are aimed at replacing the current ECB policy with a more rational and liberal framework.

The RBI has invited comments on the draft ECB policy till 1st October.

Top economy news of the day- September 24, 2015

Iran has offered natural gas to India at a rate of $2.95 per mmbtu for a urea manufacturing plant. India wants to set this up on the Chabahar port on the South-East coast of Iran.


Economic News
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), the downstream regulator, has initiated a consultative process to end the marketing monopoly of city gas distributors. In a public notice, the regulator has said it "intends to declare the end of exclusivity period" for several city gas distribution networks.

Iran has offered natural gas to India at a rate of $2.95 per mmbtu for a urea manufacturing plant. India wants to set this up on the Chabahar port on the South-East coast of Iran. India is looking at an investment opportunity of around Rs1tn in the overall project that includes setting up berths at the Chabahar port.

Top Corporate news of the day - September 24, 2015

Check out the most important news stories which captured the headlines at the corporate level in India and internationally.


Corporate News
Wind turbine manufacturer Suzlon has bagged contracts from SMEs and public sector undertakings (PSU) to supply 50 turbines of 2.1 MW each in various parts of the country. Suzlon will supply its multi-megawatt S95-90m, S97- 90m, S97-120m turbines and will leverage on its turnkey wind solutions expertise to oversee the project operations from start to end. 

Bharti Airtel has signed an agreement to use Liquid Telecom's fibre network to connect its mobile base stations across Africa, which will let its subscribers in the region to access better speeds on its 3G and 4G networks. The company, however, did not share the financial details of the deal. 

Pune based Sterlite Technologies is set to acquire Elitecore Technologies, a provider of operations and business support services for an overall enterprise value of around Rs1.8bn in an all-cash deal. (BS)

Orient Green Power Co Ltd (OGPL) has raised Rs2.5bn from existing promoter Shriram Venture Ltd (SVL) and its subsidiaries and financial investors, including EW Special Opportunities Fund II and Ecap Equities, through preferential allotment.

Industrial group Larsen & Toubro is looking to sell some assets including roads and infrastructure projects and dilute its stake in non-core subsidiaries to revive performance. The company will also appoint individual unit chief executives and individual boards to encourage independence and boost returns among its more than 70 businesses.

 Ending months of uncertainty, Pfizer is set to sell its vintage plant in Thane to little-known Vidhi Research and Development for Rs1.8bn. The Thane facility is one of Pfizer’s oldest and was commissioned in the 1960s. 

Rural Electrification Corporation signed an MoU with Andhra Pradesh power utilities to extend a fresh loan of Rs90bn. The Central public sector enterprise, set up with a main objective of financing rural electrification projects in the country, had already extended loans to the tune of Rs280bn for various projects in Andhra Pradesh. 

Britannia Industries pensioners have won a decade-long battle, after a Bengaluru court directed the biscuits major to pay pensions to its former employees who retired after March 2003 and also the triennial rise for them stopped in April 2004. Britannia had converted the defined benefit pension scheme to defined contribution type with retrospective effect, to deny the pensioners dues since 2003, going against the existing fund rules.

SKS Microfinance announced a 1.25% cut in the interest rate to 20.75% with effect from October 1 for all future disbursals. This is the third interest rate cut and an overall reduction of 3.8% since October 2014.

Coal India may revise capex plan

But it may get revised due to land acquisition bill,” Coal India Chairman Sutirtha Bhattacharya said at the company's AGM on Wednesday.


Coal India
Coal India Ltd. (CIL) may have to revise its capital expenditure plan in view of the proposed land acquisition bill. “The current estimate of total capex is Rs. 60,000 crore over the next five years. 
But it may get revised due to land acquisition bill,” Coal India Chairman Sutirtha Bhattacharya said at the company's AGM on Wednesday.
Earlier the company was planning to use the fund to ramp up capacity to 908 million tonnes. 
A large portion of the money would go towards acquisition of land required for mining of coal and the rest for buying machinery and equipment for the same. 

Asian Shares Tentative as Global Growth Concerns Linger

Tokyo: Asian shares got off to a cautious start on Thursday after more dour economic news in China and the United States prompted a bruising selloff the previous day.

Worries that an eventual tightening in U.S. monetary policy and slower growth in China could knock the global economy have scared off investors, particularly those invested in stocks and commodities.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up a touch in early trade after having posted their biggest single-day fall in almost a month the previous day.

Japan's Nikkei average, opening for the first time since Friday after national holidays, tumbled 1.6 per cent, edging near its seven-month low touched earlier this year.

Wall Street also lost ground on Wednesday, dragged down by economic reports portraying U.S. factory growth as tepid and China in its worst manufacturing contraction since the global financial crisis.

"Investors will be cautious for the time being. Markets will become steadier only when uncertainties over Chinese economy and the U.S. monetary policy diminish," said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.

Adding to the gloom, emissions scandal at German automaker Volkswagen are raising worries the crisis at the car maker could develop into the biggest threat to Europe's largest economy.

Although shares in Volkswagen rose 5.2 per cent on Wednesday, they had lost about a third of its value in the previous two sessions.

In the currency market, the euro was helped by comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that the bank needed more time to decide on whether further stimulus is required.

The euro rose to $1.1179, having bounced back from three-week low of $1.1105 touched on Wednesday.

The yen has been stuck in a narrow trading range over the past week and last stood at 120.21 to the dollar.

The spectre of higher U.S. interest rates and slower growth in China continues to weigh on many emerging market currencies, however.

The Brazilian real sank to an all-time low of 4.179 per dollar, clobbered by a recession, fiscal deficit and political instability following corruption allegations against leading politicians in Brazil, the world's seventh largest economy.

Oil prices slipped toward the lower end of their trading ranges in the past week as the bullish impact from lower crude inventories was offset by large gasoline builds that raised concerns about high autumn fuel supplies.

Brent futures traded at $47.94 per barrel, after having lost 2.7 per cent on Wednesday.

Platinum, used in diesel catalysts to clean up exhaust emissions, slid to its lowest level in more than 6 1/2 years on Wednesday on fears about reduced demand from the auto sector.

It last stood at $950.05 per ounce, having fallen to as low as $924.50.