Monday, 5 December 2016

Sensex gains 100 points, Nifty ends above 8100

While the day began with both the Indices trading in red, there was some momentum gained towards the end. The Auto and Bank sectors activities ensured that the Sensex and Nifty ended in green. When the market closed, Sensex gained more than 100 points while Nifty gained 42 points and closed above 8100.

The performance of India’s service sector weakened in November as a result of cash shortages. New business declined for the first time since June 2015, leading to a solid reduction in activity. Correspondingly, backlogs of work rose, while employment increased only marginally. In spite of the falls in output and new orders, optimism regarding future activity improved. Input costs were broadly unchanged, whereas prices charged decreased slightly.

Dropping from 54.5 to 46.7 in November, the seasonally adjusted headline Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory for the first time since June 2015 and pointed to the sharpest reduction in output for almost three years. Anecdotal evidence highlighted a lack of cash in the economy. Activity decreased in three of the six monitored sub-sectors, namely Financial Intermediation, Hotels & Restaurants and Renting & Business Activities.

Factory production rose further during the month, but the rate of growth eased. Concurrently, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index dipped from October’s 45-month high of 55.4 to 49.1 in November, thereby pointing to a slight contraction in private sector activity overall.

As was the case for activity, new business inflows at services firms declined during November. The fall in new work was the first in 17 months and the steepest in over three years.

The BSE Sensex ended with a gain of 118 points at 26349.10. The benchmark indices opened at 26253.48, touched an intra-day high of 26390.80 and low of 26125.35.

The NSE Nifty gained 42 points and closed at 8,128.75. It opened at 8,088.75 points, hitting a high of 8,141.90 and low of 8,056.85.

The India VIX (Volatility) index was down 3.59% at 17.2875. The BSE Midcap closed at 12280.06 and Smallcap indices closed at 12114.72, both indices ending marginally up.

Out of 1436 stocks traded on the NSE, 594 declined and 788 advanced today.

A total of 13 stocks registered a fresh 52-week high in trade today, whereas 14 stocks touched a new 52-week low on the NSE.

At the close of day, Asian Paints, Hindalco, M & M, Lupin, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, Ambuja Cement, Maruti were the top gainers while Tech Mahindra, TCS, HDFC, Idea, Gail, Sun Pharma, Wipro, BPCL were among the losers on NSE.

The rupee was trading at 68.26 per US dollar. Gold was trading at Rs 27,925 per 10 gms and silver was trading at Rs 40,950 per kg.

On the global front, most Asian indices closed in red and marginally down. In Europe, the FTSE 100 was up 0.52%. CAC 40 and DAX was up 1.39% and 1.65% respectively, where all indices were trading in green while, the US Nasdaq was also up marginally.

Sensex, Nifty in green

At 1:43 PM, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 26283.49 up 52.83 points, while NSE Nifty was trading at 8102.45 up 16.65 points. Out of 1,889 stocks traded on the NSE, 675 declined, 891 advanced and 323 remained unchanged today.

A total of 11 stocks registered a fresh 52-week high in trade today, while 14 stocks touched a new 52-week low on the NSE.

The BSE Mid-cap Index is trading up 54.02% at 12253.20, whereas BSE Small-cap Index is trading up 8.96% at 12092.16.

Lupin, Asian Paints, Bosch, Bharti Airtel, HUL, M&M are among the gainers, whereas Tech Mahindra, Zee Entertainment, HDFC, TCS, Idea, PowerGrid are losing sheen on NSE.

Some buying is observed in Auto, Pharma, Bank, FMCG, Metal sectors, while Information Technology, Finance, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas, Telecommunications are showing weakness on BSE.

The INDIA VIX is down 0.19% at 17.8975.

Sensex, Nifty will have a cautious start, Euro sinks to 20-month lows

The failure of Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform has taken its toll on the euro. Fear is that the verdict of the Italian population will give a boost to anti-Europe and nationalist forces. The outlook is a cautious start. The RBI meet later this week will keep interest-rate sensitives in focus. Healthy monsoons and the ensuing softening in food prices have created space for further policy action. Moreover, growing bank deposits and billions of unaccounted cash finding its way into the mainstream economy (due to demonetization) have paved the path for a lower interest rate regime. The consensus calls for a 25bps rate cut in the coming policy. The developments on GST, the impact of demonetization and the ongoing winter session of Parliament will keep investors nervous in the days ahead.

Asian markets opened flat to mildly negative as results from the Italian referendum indicated a loss for the present Italian Prime Minister and sent the Euro plunging to a fresh 20 month low. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned following a heavy defeat in Sunday’s constitutional referendum. This will see Italian and European banks under pressure initially, however a large part of this move seemed already discounted by market participants. The US$ and bonds continue to hog the limelight as money chases US assets in the form of stocks, ETF's and fixed income.

Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 index opened down 0.41%, or 76.16 points, at 18,349.92. Other Asian indices, overall mixed trading was observed, including Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (up 0.18%), South Korea’s Kospi (flat) and Taiwan’s TWSE (down 0.14%).

Investors may react to November US non-farm payroll data released on Friday by the US Labour Department. Data showed US unemployment rate fell to a 9-year low of 4.6% in November. US non-farm payrolls rose by 178,000 jobs in November against a rise by 142,000 in October, department said. It seems that the December Fed rate hike is going to happen.

Nifty ended the week with sharp losses as disequilibrium caused by the recent demonetisation move kept seeing market react to monthly sales of fast moving consumer stocks and auto's. The recent rally till 8250 has seen a fast reversal with rupee weakness, slowdown in GDP and global uncertainty make sentiment brittle. For today we expect Nifty to pullback from these oversold levels as strong value buying emerges locally and from foreign investors.