Tuesday 2 February 2016

India's economy lost momentum in Q3: RBI

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan stated that India's economy lost momentum in Q3.


RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan stated that  India's economy lost momentum in Q3.

The December calm in global financial markets – suggesting that the normalisation of US monetary policy was fully anticipated – was dispelled in January 2016 by fears of further weakening of the Chinese economy and depreciation of Renminbi. Capital outflows from China triggered sell-offs across AEs and EMEs, exacerbating currency declines and heightening volatility. 

Crude oil prices fell below US$30 per bbl- a 12-year low –on expectations of Iran adding to the supply glut. Prices of gold prices and US Treasuries hardened on safe haven demand. Financial markets remain vulnerable to bouts of volatility and capital outflows from EMEs as an asset class. Bearish commodity price dynamics are also likely to impact investor sentiment.

RBI Forecast GDP growth of 7.6% for FY17

For 2016-17, growth is expected to strengthen gradually, notwithstanding significant headwinds.


RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan Forecast GDP growth of 7.6% for FY17 and 7.4% with downward bias for FY16.

For 2016-17, growth is expected to strengthen gradually, notwithstanding significant headwinds. Expectations of a normal monsoon after two consecutive years of rainfall deficiency, the large positive terms of trade gain, improving real incomes of households and lower input costs of firms should contribute to strengthening the growth momentum. 
Yet, still weak domestic private investment demand in a phase of balance sheet adjustments, re-emergence of concerns relating to stalled projects, excess capacity in industry, sluggish external demand conditions dampening export growth could act as headwinds.

Rajan says Pause! RBI maintains status quo on rate cut, keeps repo rate at 6.75%

This is largely in line with the market expectations, as the central bank keeps a keen eye on the Union Budget due on 29th February, before taking any decision that would rattle the market participants.


Raghuram RajanThe Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Sixth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Review, 2015-16, has decided to keep the repo rate same, with no pulls or pressure from the market. Governor Raghuram Rajan declared that the Repo Rate will be maintained at 6.75%, with CRR at 4%. Reverse Repo Rate is held at 5.75%.

This is largely in line with the market expectations, as the central bank keeps a keen eye on the Union Budget due on 29th February, before taking any decision that would rattle the market participants. The stance is akin to the policy statement from the Fifth Bi-monthly meet which reiterated that the global growth continues to be weak.

In its official statement, RBI said, "Since the fifth bi-monthly statement of December 2015, global growth has slowed, with the ongoing weakening of activity in major emerging market economies (EMEs) outweighing the recovery in some advanced economies (AEs). World trade has remained subdued, held down by anaemic demand, new lows in commodity prices and currency realignments."

"On the domestic front, economic activity lost momentum in Q3 of 2015-16,
pulled down by slackening agricultural and industrial growth. The north-east monsoon season ended in December with a deficiency of 23 per cent relative to the long period average (LPA)." the central bank added.


The Indian central bank cut policy rates by a cumulative 125 basis points in the last calendar year. Slowing economic conditions definitely warrented further fall in the interest rates but growing concerns over fiscal prudence and rise in food inflation has poured water on such possibility.

On growth front, Indian government downwardly revised GDP estimates for the current fiscal year. GDP projection for FY2015-16 is lowered to 7.2% from 7.3% reported earlier. Few quarters back, the Finance ministry expected the economy to grow around 8%. Growth numbers for the previous fiscal year (FY2014-15) has also been lowered to 6.6% from the earlier estimate of 6.9%.

On inflation side, retail inflation during December has moved higher towards 5.61%, when compared with the reading of 5.41% and 5% during November and October respectively. Erratic monsoon has adversely impacted the output of grains, pulses and other crops and in the process led to higher food prices.

There is skepticism on whether the incumbent regime will be able to meet the fiscal deficit of 3.9% by the end of this fiscal year. Fiscal deficit for the April-December 2015 period stands at 87.9% of FY2015-16 target. Recent hike in salaries and pensions of Central government employees can impair the plans of attaining budgetary targets.

Meanwhile, trajectory in oil prices has worked in the favor of Indian economy. Considering India’s dependence on oil imports, falling energy prices has proved as a boon for the nation’s current account balance. In the latest, India’s current account deficit narrowed to 1.6% of GDP during the second quarter of the FY2015-16, when compared with the reading of 2.2% the same quarter last year. Nevertheless, India’s trade deficit rose to US$11.7bn in December 2015, compared to US$9.1bn a year ago, as merchandise exports during December fell for the 13th successive month on account of weak global demand and competition from depreciating emerging market currencies. Exports fell 14.75% on yoy basis to US$22.3bn, while imports were reported at US$33.96bn.

Tech Mahindra Q3 earnings: 7 things that mattered

Tech Mahindra Ltd, fifth largest IT firm of the country, announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 on February 1, 2016. The Q3 numbers were marginally in-line with estimates.


Tech Mahindra Ltd, fifth largest IT firm of the country, announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 on February 1, 2016. The Q3 numbers were marginally in-line with estimates.

Revenue Growth: The company's Q3 Net Profit slided down 3.4% to Rs. 759.2 crore vs Rs. 785.6 crore qoq. The revenue was registered at Rs 6,701 crore vs Rs 6,620 crore qoq while other income was reported at Rs. 63.9 crore vs Rs. 165.8 crore qoq. The top tech company posted consolidated EBIT Margin of 14.36%.

IIFL had estimated the company’s net profit for Q3 FY16 to plunge to Rs. 742.40 crore at a rate of 7.8% yoy and 5.5% qoq while net revenue to increase to Rs. 6,789 crore at 18% yoy and 2.6% qoq.

Global presence: The company registered a de-growth of 1.7% in US while Europe was flat in currency terms. However, RoW grew 6.7%, as a result the overall geographical growth was reported at 0.4%.

De-growth in communication business: Communication business dropped 1.4% due to furloughs, decline in top clients, volatility of currency and projects slow down. The slowdown was experienced with more than couple of clients. The company said that Chennai floods impacted the numbers marginally.

Telecom portfolio: The telecom portfolio continued to experience headwinds in third quarter of FY16. However the company said that the worst part of decline is over and telecom business is likely to get stable, if not grow, in coming quarters.

Clients and large deals: The active clients count went up by 13 to 800 in Q3. 1million+ clients went up by 28 to 326 while 20million+ client went by 1 qoq. The company said the acquisition of Pininfarina has been one of the major deals in Q3 and is likely to show good results in coming quarters. However, the company could not crack large deals as per the guidance given in Q2. Five of the large deals are said to be in process or waiting for approval.

New launches: Tech Mahindra launched electric two wheeler launched in US based on Internet of Things technology. The IT firm management said that the launch of connected scooter will set stage for the development of connected cars, Tom Tom deal and Pininfarina acquisition being the key factors in the development.

Future prospects: The company said it will focus on cost optimisation and DSO improvement. Moreover, it will work on margin improvement and continue to focus on productivity, business efficiency and automation.

Aurobindo Pharma down 3%

The company reportedly said that two of its facilities have undergone inspection by US health regulator USFDA, which has issued observations for one unit.


Aurobindo Pharma was down by 3% at Rs. 779. The company reportedly said that two of its facilities have undergone inspection by USFDA, which has issued observations for one unit. 
The company is appropriately responding and this has no perceived impact on operations and exports from the said facility, company added.

The scrip opened at Rs. 804 and has touched a high and low of Rs. 807.85 and Rs. 775 respectively. So far 614141 (NSE+BSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 46832.35 crore.

The BSE group 'A' stock of face value Rs. 1 has touched a 52 week high of Rs. 891.5 on 30-Dec-2015 and a 52 week low of Rs. 490.5 on 26-Feb-2015. Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs. 837.5 and Rs. 792.4 respectively.

The promoters holding in the company stood at 53.9%, while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 35.24% and 10.86% respectively.

The stock is currently trading above its 50 DMA.

Aban Offshore slumps 4%; Q3 net loss at Rs. 88.7 crore

The company posted a net loss after taxes, minority interest, and share of profit of associates of Rs. 88.7 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 compared with Rs. 129.9 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.


Aban Offshore Ltd was down 4% at Rs.182. The company posted a net loss after taxes, minority interest, and share of profit of associates of Rs. 88.7 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 compared with Rs. 129.9 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2014. 
Total income has decreased from Rs. 10164.51 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2014 to Rs. 7374.45 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2015.

The scrip opened at Rs. 183.9 and has touched a high and low of Rs. 184.9 and Rs. 182.25 respectively. So far 212466 (NSE+BSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 1109.82 crore.

The BSE group 'A' stock of face value Rs. 2 has touched a 52 week high of Rs. 519.5 on 05-Mar-2015 and a 52 week low of Rs. 175.7 on 21-Jan-2016. Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs. 193.5 and Rs. 185.25 respectively.

The promoters holding in the company stood at 47.01%, while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 13.93% and 39.06% respectively.

The stock is currently trading above its 200 DMA.

Axis Bank signs MOU with Indian Army

Axis Bank would also accord special preference to hire ex-servicemen as business correspondents for the bank, with waiver on the requirement of security deposit.


Axis Bank, India’s third largest private sector bank, as a part of its continued commitment to serve the Defence sector, has signed a MoU with the Indian Army, the Navy and the Coast Guard to offer a comprehensive lifetime solution from Pay to Pension, under its umbrella suite - ‘Power Salute’.

Axis Bank has upgraded & remodeled the captive branch located within the Ministry of Defence complex in Delhi. Axis Bank is the only private sector bank to have a presence in Defence Headquarters (Sena Bhawan, New Delhi) by way of an Extension Counter. 

The EC is being re-launched in a digital format with a self-service e-Lobby. The branch was re-dedicated to the Defence department on Wednesday, January 27, 2016, in the presence of Vice Admiral AR Karve, AVSM, Chief of Personnel, Indian Navy, Sanjay Silas, President & Head Branch Banking, Axis Bank and senior officials from the Bank and Defence forces.

Axis Bank would also accord special preference to hire ex-servicemen as business correspondents for the bank, with waiver on the requirement of security deposit.

Axis Bank’s exclusive service, under the ‘Power Salute’ umbrella offering, entails numerous benefits for the Defence personnel, which include loan products, banking solutions and exclusive “Pride” credit card offering. These benefits would continue even after their retirement. 

The Power Salute Account for the Defence Personnel would be a Zero Balance Salary Account for self and family members. Axis Bank would provide enhanced Personal Accidental Death Cover, unlimited free ATM transactions on Axis and non-Axis Bank ATMs & rank-wise graded offering, with special benefits to suit diverse needs.

Around 20 exclusive ATMs at key Defence locations would also be rebranded as special “Power Salute” ATMs. In addition, the Bank would also install ATMs/e-Lobby at all key Defence Training and Regimental Centers to better serve the personnel.

Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, DLF among 30 Stocks in focus today

Check out the companies which will be in focus during trade today based on recent and latest news developments.


Stock market sign
Wipro: Wipro Ltd’s new CEO Abidali Neemuchwala has set an ambitious target of expanding the company's revenue to US$15 billion, with operating margins of 23%, by 2020, reports a business daily.

Tech Mahindra: Tech Mahindra reported consolidated net profit of Rs. 759.24 crore for the quarter December 31, 2015, registering decline of 5.71% yoy.

DLF: DLF Ltd, a real estate major, will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL forecasts the company’s net profit for Q3 FY16 to increase to Rs. 174.10 crore, growing at 32.1% yoy 32.4 qoq.  

Ajanta Pharma: The company posted a net profit of Rs. 1113 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 compared with Rs. 930.60 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.

Abbott India: The company’s standalone revenue stood at Rs. 667.29 crore, up 16.31% yoy and 3.45% qoq.

Jindal Saw: Jindal Saw reported a 36.6% decrease in net profit at Rs.39.24 crore for the third quarter that ended on December 31, 2015.

Dr. Reddy’s Lab
: The pharma company announced the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) tentative approval for Zenavod(doxycycline) Capsules, 40 mg.

Godrej Properties: Godrej Properties Ltd will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL forecasts the company’s net profit for Q3 FY16 to fall to Rs. 38.80 crore, at a rate of 17.8% yoy and 63.4% qoq.

Steel Strips: Steel Strips Wheel Ltd's Total wheel rim sales stood 11.28 lakhs for Jan'16 as against 10.03 lakhs in Jan'15 representing a 12% growth.

Tata Communications
: Tata Communications Ltd will announce its Q3 results today. IIFL forecasts the company’s net profit for Q3 FY16 to decline to Rs. 33 crore, at a rate of 69.6% yoy; however, it is expected to rise 448.8% qoq. 

V I P Industries:  V I P Industries Ltd, Mumbai-based luggage maker, reported standalone net profit of Rs.11.30 crore for the quarter ended December, registering growth of 32.94% yoy, but decline of 28.03% qoq.

BHEL: BHEL has bagged this prestigious order for setting up a supercritical thermal power project involving one unit of the country’s highest rating 800 MW sets, in Tamil Nadu.

Adani Enterprises: The company posted a net profit of Rs. 1957.90 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 whereas the same was at Rs. 4438.50 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.

Ipca Labs: The US Food & Drug Administration (US FDA) has issued a warning letter to Ipca Laboratories for not complying with the drug regulator’s quality standard at three of the company's manufacturing plants.

Suzlon: Suzlon Group announced the opening of its new Blade Science Center in Vejle, Denmark.

Transport Corp: The company  reported a 10.5% increase in net profit at Rs.18.9 crore for the third quarter that ended on December 31, 2015.

Maharashtra Seamless: The company reported a fall of 85.7% in standalone net profit to Rs.5 crore for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2015 as compared to Rs.35 crore in the same period last year.

M&M: M&M's farm and equipment sector, a part of the $16.9bn Mahindra Group, announced its January 2016 sales numbers for tractors.

Aban Offshore: The company has posted a net loss of Rs.887.34 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 compared with Rs. 1,299.89 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2014.

Tata Motors: Tata Motors continued to witness year-on-year growth in the M&HCV segment in January 2016, with a growth of 30%. Total sales of Tata Motors passenger and commercial vehicles (including exports) were at 47,034 vehicles, higher by 10%, over 42,595 vehicles, sold in January 2015.

Grasim Industries: Grasim Industries Ltd. will spend more than Rs. 4,000 crore on capacity expansion of its various businesses - cement, chemicals and VSF - in the coming financial year.

Maruti Suzuki: Maruti Suzuki posted lesser than expected sales numbers with the start of the new year. The January 2016 total sales volume of the company declined by 2.6% to 1.13 lakh units.

ITC: ITC plans its first overseas hotel at Colombo, Sri Lanka, in 2018, reports a business daily, adding that the Sri Lankan property will be a super-premium one and it will be branded as “ITC”.

Mahindra & Mahindra: Mahindra & Mahindra posted 10% YoY growth in sales, and stood at 43,789 units sold during January 2016. The company sold 22,088 units of PV at 13% YoY growth.

Vakrangee:  The company announced that Corporate Agency has tied up with Tata AIG General Insurance Company.

Ashok Leyland: Ashok Leyland's total sales for Jan'16 total rose 30% yoy to 13,886 units as against 10,643 units of Jan'15. M&HCV sales were up 40% yoy at 11,208 units.

Dalmia Bharat Sugar: Dalmia Bharat Sugar & Industries, leading cement suppliers in India, reported standalone net profit of Rs.16.95 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015.

Atul Auto: Atul Auto posted a sales growth of 2% for the month of January,2016 at 3,708 units as against 3,636 units for same period corresponding year.

Sun Pharma: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries announced that all the necessary formalities for Closure of the said transaction have been completed and the aforesaid transaction has been successfully closed on February 01, 2016.

VRL Logistics: The company reported a 1.6% decrease in net profit at Rs.24.7 crore for the third quarter that ended on December 31, 2015.

Sensex, Nifty to open on a flat note

After hitting intra-day high of 7600 in early trades on Monday, indices constantly struggled to find any specific direction. A lot will hinge upon what the RBI governor does and says today. Bank stocks will again be in focus given the policy meeting event. The currency movement will also be closely tracked.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing index rose to 48.2 in January from 48, above forecasts but still below the reading of 50 that signals expansion.


The market has more or less factored in a pause by the RBI on any monetary policy activity till the budget gets out of the way. After a cumulative 125 basis points cut in the repo rate by RBI during past 12 months, slowing economic conditions definitely demand further fall in the interest rates. However, growing concerns over fiscal prudence and rise in food inflation has left this option less desirable for now. Elsewhere, ECB president Mario Draghi expressed his concern over the state of EM economies terming them a ‘risk.’

The outlook is a flat start. After hitting intra-day high of 7600 in early trades on Monday, indices constantly struggled to find any specific direction. A lot will hinge upon what the RBI governor does and says today. Bank stocks will again be in focus given the policy meeting event. The currency movement will also be closely tracked. Key results in focus will be Amara Raja Batteries, Cera Sanitaryware, Crompton Greaves, Cummins India, DLF Ltd, Godrej Properties, HSIL Ltd, OCL India, Navneet Education, Shree Cement, Snowman Logistics, Tata Communications and Welspun India.

US indices erased steep early losses to close nearly unchanged amid fresh signs of weakness in the Chinese economy and lingering worries over plunging oil prices. US crude oil price crashed over 6%. Weak US manufacturing PMI data fueled expectations of a protracted status quo on interest rates by the Federal Reserve.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing index rose to 48.2 in January from 48, above forecasts but still below the reading of 50 that signals expansion.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed a 160-point loss to close 17.12 points, or 0.1%, lower at 16,449. The S&P 500 index closed flat at 1,939. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 6.41 points, or 0.1%, to settle at 4,620.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable outlook on the auto industry for FY17. This is based on the resilient financial profiles of industry players, likely sustained growth in car demand, bottoming out of the sales decline in light commercial vehicles and continued growth in medium heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) although at a lower rate than seen in FY16. The stable outlook is also supported by the improved profitability and higher cash flows of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) on the back of low commodity prices.

Grasim Industries Ltd. will spend more than Rs. 4,000 crore on capacity expansion of its various businesses - cement, chemicals and VSF - in the coming financial year.

Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) has invested Rs. 53,000 crore in the equity markets so far in FY16, up 36 per cent over the amount invested in FY15, Chairman S.K. Roy said on Monday.

ASSOCHAM expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to at least take note of the fact for well over a year, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for several industrial products has remained in a deflationary mode, requiring an urgent infusion of life –saving consumer demand.

Sun Pharma  announced the launch of Imatinib Mesylate Tablets (therapeutic equivalent to Gleevec for indications approved by the FDA) in US market. Sun Pharma’s subsidiary received final approval for Imatinib Mesylate from FDA in December 2015. Being a First-to-File product, it was granted 180 days of marketing exclusivity by FDA from the time of its launch.

Petrol price was reduced by 4 paise a litre and diesel by 3 paise a litre as the government raised excise duty.