Tuesday 30 July 2013

Markets to get a flat-to-positive start; RBI policy review eyed

The Indian markets showed a disappointing trade in last session, where markets kept on losing ground with the progress of the trade till the end, closing near to lowest of the day. Today is the big day, as the Reserve Bank of India will announce the first quarter review of the monetary policy for 2013-14, though the consensus is that the central bank will maintain a status quo, however there will be cautiousness as the RBI in a document released ahead of the monetary policy review, flagged India’s high current account deficit as a major concern, saying that it would have widened in the April-June quarter due to a steep fall in the rupee as well as spike in gold imports, and called for immediate structural reforms to stem the tide. Though, soon after RBI’s release, Chief Economic Adviser to Finance Ministry Raghuram Rajan has said that the RBI’s action in stabilising the battered rupee must not hurt growth too much, the statement may soothe the nerve of the investors. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has promised more reforms in the coming months in his meet with India Inc. The pharma stocks are likely to remain in action, as the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) has cleared six proposals envisaging investments of Rs 855 crore in the pharmaceutical sector.

There will be lots of important result announcements too, Bayer Crop, Cinemax India, Dr Reddys Lab, EID Parry, Financial Technologies, Gujarat Pipavav,  IFCI, Jindal Steel, NTPC, Petronet LNG, PVR, Reliance Power and Reliance Infra are among many to announce their numbers today.

The US markets ended mostly lower in last session weighed down by the cautiousness ahead of this week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. While a negative report of pending home sales too impacted the sentiments. The Asian markets have made a mixed start, though some of the indices are trading higher by over half a percent, led by the Japanese market that moved up on the back of weakness in yen, offsetting a bigger-than-estimated decline in factory output.

Back home, it turned out to be a daunting session of trade for the Indian stock markets, which extended the southbound journey for fourth consecutive day and gave up another around half a percent as investors opted to remain on sidelines ahead of Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy announcements tomorrow. Sentiments remained sluggish since morning tracking weakness in Indian rupee due to month-end dollar demand from importers. As the trade progressed, some recovery was seen in the markets after Finance Minister P. Chidambaram stated that he does not expect RBI’s recent liquidity steps to lead to increase in bank lending rates, notably a day ahead of RBI’s monetary policy review. Further, soothing some jittery nerves, FM added that India is still the second fastest growing economy and expressed hope of achieving six per cent growth this fiscal. Positive opening in European markets though supported the local indices to some extent. However, disappointing cues from Asian markets took their toll on Indian markets and dragged the frontline gauges below their crucial 5,850 (Nifty) and 19,600 (Sensex) levels. Some disappointment also came in from corporate earning front where banking stocks like Indian Bank reported 32% fall in Q1FY14 net profit at Rs 317.39 crore, while Syndicate Bank registered marginal rise in first quarter net profit at Rs 452.28 crore. Additionally, IDFC stocks too declined over 4% even as the company reported 46.74% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 557.31 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2013. Bucking the trend, investors continued to pile up positions in software and technology counters on the back of depreciating rupee. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 154.91 points or 0.78% to settle at 19,593.28, while the CNX Nifty declined by 54.55 points or 0.93% to end at 5,831.65.

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