Thursday 11 July 2013

Markets to see some recovery on sanguine global cues

The Indian markets suffered selling in last session mainly on global cues and some on the reports that finance ministry has mooted cap on gas prices, asking Reliance Industries to sell the quantity of gas by which it has fallen short of targets during the past three years at the present rate of $4.2 per unit. Though, the oil & gas sector is likely to remain under pressure even today with the proposals, but the markets are likely to get a good start tailing sanguine global cues. Meanwhile, in view of deteriorating markets and depreciating rupee the government has decided that key macroeconomic data including GDP and IIP numbers will now be released after market hours. Now GDP, CPI and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data will be released at 5.30 PM in the evening. Traders will also be eyeing the movement of rupee and bullion as the dollar slumped and gold jumped to its highest in more than two weeks after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US central bank will continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy for now. Jewellery exporters may see some upmove on the report that government is considering incentives for gold jewellery exporters hit by restrictions imposed on import of the metal to contain current account deficit.

The US markets went through a choppy day of trade in last session and after remaining directionless for most part of the day, lost some gains on release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, which indicated that the central bank is moving closer to tapering its asset purchase program. The Asian markets have made a good start with most of the indices trading considerably higher, as US Fed Chief said the world’s biggest economy will continue to need stimulus.

Back home, Wednesday’s trading session turned out to be a disappointing one for the Indian equity markets, as investors booked profit after last session’s rally ahead of the start of official Q1FY14 earnings  season with Infosys’ releasing its Q1 numbers on Friday. Investors also turned cautious tracking weakness in rupee, the Indian currency after recovering in last session on the SEBI and RBI’s measures to control its fall, once again depreciated in early deals, despite RBI’s further efforts to check the fall, asking each state-run oil company to buy dollars from a single bank. Sentiments also got dented after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut India’s growth outlook for 2013-14 to 5.6 percent from the 5.8 percent it projected in April. Supportive cues from US markets provided the much needed support to local bourses initially. Investors’ morale got buttressed with Alcoa reporting a better than expected second quarter numbers. Moreover, most of the Asian counters too ended in the green on Wednesday. However, weakness in European market took their toll on domestic sentiments in second half and dragged the frontline gauges below their psychological levels. Back home, selling in index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) too weighed on sentiments after Finance Ministry in its latest gas pricing formula reportedly told Oil Ministry that RIL must deliver outstanding gas at old rate of $4.2 and that upside needs to be capped as it cannot allow unlimited gains to the cdespite indicating tapering ompanies. Selling in shares of public sector oil marketing companies like BPCL, HPCL and IOC too dampened the sentiments as Crude oil prices moved higher and the Nymex crude surged to its fourteen-month high, tracking gains in the global equity markets and fears of supply disruption through the Suez Canal, on the increasingly fluid situation in Egypt. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 145.36 points or 0.75% to settle at 19,294.12, while the CNX Nifty declined by 42.30 points or 0.72% to end at 5,816.70.

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