Friday 30 August 2013

Q1 GDP disappoints at 4.4% vs 5.4%

PM today said GDP estimate at 5.5 for current fiscal was possible, fears of growth at 3% "unfounded"

First quarter Gross Domestic Product in FY14 stood at 4.4%.

C Rangarajan said today that going forward, "GDP numbers will impove".

Agriculture growth was recorded at 2.8% versus 2.9%. Rangarajan said, agriculture growth was expected to be better in the second half of the year owing to good monsoon season. Rangarajan pegged agriculture growth estimate at 4-5%.

Services sector grew by 6.6% versus 7.7% on year while the industrial sector only recorded 0.2% growth.

In the fourth quarter of 2012-13, the GDP had grown at 4.8% while in April-June period last year, GDP growth stood at 5.4%.

Manufacturing growth was recorded at -1.2% compared with -1% YoY in the numbers released today. However, Rangarajan also said that manufacturing growth was expected to pick up Q3 onwards.

The prime minister, today in Rajya Sabha, said that GDP estimate at 5.5% this fiscal was possible and that fears of numbers going down to 3% were ''totally unfounded".

Sentiments turned jittery in the markets intraday, after the Manmohan Singh said that the rupee's tumble is a "matter of concern" but is part of a needed adjustment due to India's large current account deficit.

Singh said that rupee depreciation will see upward pressure on inflation, but added that RBI will, however, work on containing it.

Moody's Analytics, the research and analysis wing of Moody’s had expected GDP growth for the first quarter to be at 4.5%. According to foreign brokerage Bank of America - Merrill Lynch (BoFA-ML), in the current economic situation, the first quarter economic growth was estimated at 4%.

Various analysts tracking the sector were also of the opinion that growth would remain subdued. CARE Ratings chief economist Madan Sabnavis had said that he expected the GDP growth at around 4.7%.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic advisor at the State Bank of India expected the economy to grow below 5% level in the range of 4-7-4.8%.

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