The going gets tough for the country's largest bank as balance sheet is deteriorating at rapid pace
Share price of the country’s largest lender, State Bank of India, has fallen by 26% to Rs 1,475 since July. Unlike many other heavyweights which have become attractive after the recent beating, not many believe that SBI’s shares are attractive. The ratio of impaired loans for the entire banking sector has jumped 75 basis points to 10% at the end of June. If this be the case, then it is only going to get tougher for the country’s largest lender.
With the Reserve Bank of India’s recent tightening and economic growth plummeting to 4.4%, the banking sector’s woes are expected to rise. Morgan Stanley expects impairments to be meaningfully higher than their base case estimate of 12.5% by FY15. Given that companies will continue to struggle in a difficult macro-economic environment, analysts expect corporate lenders to struggle going forward.
SBI’s first quarter performance provides evidence of such a trend playing out. In the first quarter, SBI shocked the market with its slippage (fresh accretion of bad loans) of Rs 13,760 crore, which was way ahead of the market estimates. Even though SBI indicated that in the next quarter slippages to the tune of Rs 2,000-2,500 crore may be upgraded, analysts believe that the process may be slower than expected.
The management has not given any guidance for slippages in the current fiscal as it believes that asset quality pressures will persist due to the slowdown. According to Antique Stock Broking, the bank’s total restructured book stood at 3% of advances at the end of the first quarter and the corporate debt restructuring pipeline is at Rs 10,000 (related to iron & steel, road and power sector) for 2QFY14.
The bank’s profitability is also expected to take a hit in the coming quarters on rising expenditure and higher bond yields.
Morgan Stanley does not expect the bank’s average profit after tax over the next three quarters to be materially higher than Rs 2,000 crore.
“This will be driven by weaker asset quality (51% coverage and huge impaired loan formation); likely fall in net interest margins (falling spreads/loan-deposit ratio); rising opex and higher bond yields (MTM losses of Rs 1,300 crore according to management).”
Share price of the country’s largest lender, State Bank of India, has fallen by 26% to Rs 1,475 since July. Unlike many other heavyweights which have become attractive after the recent beating, not many believe that SBI’s shares are attractive. The ratio of impaired loans for the entire banking sector has jumped 75 basis points to 10% at the end of June. If this be the case, then it is only going to get tougher for the country’s largest lender.
With the Reserve Bank of India’s recent tightening and economic growth plummeting to 4.4%, the banking sector’s woes are expected to rise. Morgan Stanley expects impairments to be meaningfully higher than their base case estimate of 12.5% by FY15. Given that companies will continue to struggle in a difficult macro-economic environment, analysts expect corporate lenders to struggle going forward.
SBI’s first quarter performance provides evidence of such a trend playing out. In the first quarter, SBI shocked the market with its slippage (fresh accretion of bad loans) of Rs 13,760 crore, which was way ahead of the market estimates. Even though SBI indicated that in the next quarter slippages to the tune of Rs 2,000-2,500 crore may be upgraded, analysts believe that the process may be slower than expected.
The management has not given any guidance for slippages in the current fiscal as it believes that asset quality pressures will persist due to the slowdown. According to Antique Stock Broking, the bank’s total restructured book stood at 3% of advances at the end of the first quarter and the corporate debt restructuring pipeline is at Rs 10,000 (related to iron & steel, road and power sector) for 2QFY14.
The bank’s profitability is also expected to take a hit in the coming quarters on rising expenditure and higher bond yields.
Morgan Stanley does not expect the bank’s average profit after tax over the next three quarters to be materially higher than Rs 2,000 crore.
“This will be driven by weaker asset quality (51% coverage and huge impaired loan formation); likely fall in net interest margins (falling spreads/loan-deposit ratio); rising opex and higher bond yields (MTM losses of Rs 1,300 crore according to management).”
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