Tuesday, 5 November 2013

Markets to get a flat-to-cautious start

The Indian markets continued their jubilation intact on the short Diwali Muhurat session, though indices came off their highs on some profit booking in the banking counters but still both the major indices snapped the session at their all time closing high. Today, the start is likely to be flat-to-cautious tailing regional cues though there will be some cheer with ratings upgrade by global broker Goldman Sachs. However, traders will be cautious with the report that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow into the services sector, which contributes over 60 percent to India’s GDP, declined 47.5 percent to $1.19 billion during April-August. On the other hand there will be jubilation in the gems and gold jewellery stocks, as the industry body GJEPC has said that exports from India in the segment are expected to rise for a third straight month to a level of Rs 19,800 crore for October on easing of supply pressures. There will be some buzz in the power sector too, as the Cabinet Committee on Investment, this week, is likely to take up two power projects worth over Rs 35,000 crore that have been long stalled due to environmental hurdles. Also there will be some important result announcements to keep the markets buzzing. 

The US markets despite a choppy session ended higher on Monday supported by some upmove in the commodity stocks on getting good non-manufacturing data out of China. The Asian markets have started mostly in red with the Chinese market giving up gains, while the Japanese market too was trading lower after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda unleashed record monetary easing, though it was said to be failing to meet its inflation target.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Friday’s session on flat note due to profit booking seen at higher levels in late trades after the Sensex hit its all-time highs in intra-day trade. Sentiments remained up-beat since beginning after core sector industries recorded 8 percent growth in September, highest in the past 11 months. The growth in the eight infrastructure industries was mainly due to expansion in crude oil, steel and electricity production. Sentiments also got some boost after Department of Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram said that the government will meet the fiscal deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP for the current financial year. However, investors booked some profit off the table after Indian manufacturing activity stuck to its declining trajectory for third consecutive month in October as order books shrank at quicker space. The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a headline index designed to measure the overall health of the manufacturing sector, stood unchanged at September’s 49.6 points. Meanwhile the inflation based on consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) in the month of September surged to 10.7 percent on y-o-y basis as against 9.14 percent in same month last year and 10.75 percent for the previous month, mainly owing to the rise in price of food items, fuel and electricity charges. Global cues too remained sluggish with European counters making a weak start ahead of manufacturing data from both the UK and the US. Moreover, Asian benchmarks ended mixed with investors remaining cautious, despite some fairly encouraging economic data out of China. Back home, domestic benchmarks managed to hold green terrain as some support came in from report that foreign direct investment (FDI) in India increased by about 35 percent to $13.6 billion during the first half of 2013 with merger and acquisitions accounting for the bulk of inflows. Meanwhile, buying in metal counter too aided the sentiments. Stocks like Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Bhushan Steel, Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc etc. edged higher as Chinese manufacturing gauge rose to an 18-month high in October. Meanwhile, public sector banks such as State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Union Bank of India etc, remained on buyers’ radar for second day in a row on hopes of stabilizing asset quality and valuations. Finally on the Diwali day, the markets in a short trading session extended their gains and BSE Sensex closed at 21,239.36, up 42.55 points or 0.20%, while the Nifty ended at 6,317.35, up 10.15 points or 0.16%.

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