Tuesday 28 January 2014

Markets to get a cautious start ahead of the RBI policy review

The Indian markets plunged in last session by over two percent on global growth concern and as the rupee fell sharply against the dollar, there was concern related to credit policy review too. Today, the start is likely to remain cautious and all eyes will be on Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and some stabilization can be seen if status quo is maintained. The general perception is that the central bank will hold rates and a rate cut can only be expected in March if inflation continues to moderate. Meanwhile, the government allaying investors worry over declining value of the rupee and falling stock markets has said that country’s economic fundamentals are "very strong" and there is no cause for concern. Earlier, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia too has said that India is committed to structural reforms to boost growth and any change in the government after the next elections is unlikely to have a major impact on the country's economic reform policy framework. There will be some buzz in the steel stocks as the government imposed a five percent export duty on iron pellets, a critical raw material for the steel industry. Earlier iron ore pellets were exempted from the duty as the exports were negligible in 2012-13. Telecom stocks too may be reacting to the Empowered Group of Ministers decision on spectrum usage charges and later clarification of Telecom Secretary that the new levy would not be capped at 5%.

There will be lots of important result announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing. Binani Inds, GIC Housing, IPCA Lab, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, Jyothy Lab, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, Pidilite Inds, Punjab & Sind Bank, SSLT and WABCO India are among the many to announce their numbers today.

The US markets continued their weakness and ended modestly lower in last session on lingering concerns about emerging markets as well as the likelihood of further tapering by the Federal Reserve. The Asian markets have made a mixed start with some of the indices recovering from their last session’s steep fall. Japanese Nikkei was trading in green as the yen weakened against the dollar, though the Chinese market was still cautious on the report that the growth at China’s industrial companies slowed.

Back home, Monday turned out to be another gloomy trading session for the Indian equity indices which got pounded by over two percentage points. Markets prolonging their southward journey for the second consecutive session, witnessed blood bath and closed near their intraday lows, breaching major crucial support levels of 20,750 (Sensex) and 6,150 (Nifty), with rate sensitive shares leading the decline ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) third quarter monetary policy review tomorrow. Though, the broader expectations are RBI would opt for status quo on policy rates for the second straight month, as consumer price inflation continued to remain at elevated levels. After a gap-down opening, the domestic bourses never looked in recovery mood and continued sliding till end. Selling was both brutal and wide-based, as none of sectoral indices on BSE were spared. Counters, which featured in the list of worst performers, include realty, metal, banking, auto and power. Selling also got intensified after European markets made a sluggish opening amid worries that the US Federal Reserve would continue trimming its monetary stimulus measures. Asian markets too ended in the red terrain with deep cut. Back home, sentiments remained down-beat after the rupee breached the psychological 63 per dollar mark, to hit its lowest level in more than two months. Metal stocks like Tata Steel, SAIL, Hindalco, Jindal Steel & Power and NMDC etc edged lower on concerns about slower Chinese growth. Public sector oil marketing companies viz. BPCL, HPCL and IOC too witnessed selling pressure, as weakness in rupee raised concerns about increased costs of importing oil. Meanwhile, telecom shares ended lower after the Empowered Group of Ministers on telecom, at its meeting on spectrum fee issue, announced that the Subscriber Usage Charge for new spectrum will be a maximum of 5% of adjusted gross revenue. Additionally, shares of jewellery retailers declined after Finance Minister P Chidambaram said that the restrictions on gold imports will remain intact at least until the end of this financial year to keep a lid on the country’s current-account deficit. Finally, the BSE Sensex slumped by 426.11 points or 2.02%, to settle at 20707.45, while the CNX Nifty plunged by 130.90 points or 2.09% to settle at 6,135.85.

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