Wednesday 1 January 2014

Markets to start the New Year on a cautious note

The Indian markets managed a positive close of the year 2013. Today, the start of the new year is likely to be a bit cautious and traders will be reacting to the report that India's fiscal deficit in the April-November period reached 94% of the targeted budgetary estimate of Rs 5.42 lakh crore, raising concerns that India may well overshoot its ambitious target of containing the deficit at 4.8% of GDP. Also, the retail inflation for industrial workers inched up marginally to 11.47 per cent in November compared to 11.06 per cent in October and 9.55 per cent in the same month last year due to higher prices of food items. However, there is some consolation that the output of eight core sector industries grew 2.5% during April-November, showing signs of recovery. Core sector grew 1.7 per cent in November after shrinking 0.6 per cent in October, however it was much lower than 5.8 per cent growth last November. Meanwhile, C. Rangarajan, Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, has said that Indian economy is likely to record 6-6.5 per cent growth in 2014-15 with many of the recent policy actions bearing fruit in the next fiscal.

The US markets snapped the strong year 2013 on an upbeat note, traders remained in jubilation mood despite thin volume, though release of a report from the Conference Board showing a bigger than expected rebound by consumer confidence too aided to the sentiments. Most of the Asian markets are closed today, unable to give any cues to the Indian markets.

Back home, Indian equity indices concluded the last trading session of calendar year 2013 slightly in the positive terrain and garnered decent gains of around seven to nine per cent on annual basis, backed by FII investment of around $20 billion during the year, marking third highest flows. Nevertheless, Indian markets underperformed their global peers in 2013 on widespread concerns about a domestic economy suffering from low growth but high inflation. Earlier, the domestic bourses made a strong opening as sentiments remained firm on hopes that inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will continue despite the US Federal Reserve starting to withdraw its stimulus programme from January 1. Afterwards, the frontline gauges traded in tight band throughout the session as investors remained on sidelines ahead of April-November fiscal deficit reading. Gains also remained capped with cautiousness on Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan’s statement that the challenge of containing inflation is limiting the central bank’s ability to boost economic growth. On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher, though the mood remained cautious and some of the markets in the region remained closed on New Year’s Eve. Back home, sentiments got some support in from of appreciation in Rupee due to lack of significant dollar demand. Stocks related to retail sector edged higher, led by Trent as the government cleared proposals by UK-based retail giant Tesco’s proposal to invest around Rs 680 crore. Tesco has sought permission to pick up 50% stake in Trent Hypermarket, a wholly owned subsidiary of Trent, a Tata Group company. However, select stocks from banking sector remained under pressure after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated that risks to the banking sector have increased during the past six months due to rising bad loans and has proposed tightening banks' exposure limit for single borrower and single groups. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 27.67 points or 0.13%, to settle at 21170.68, while the CNX Nifty added 12.90 points or 0.21% to settle at 6,304.00.

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