Friday, 31 January 2014

New series likely to get a positive start; GDP data eyed

The Indian markets despite some recovery in second half ended with cut of over half a percent in the last session. Today, the start of the new series is likely to be in green and some recovery and stabilization can be expected after the slump. However, there will be some cautiousness too, as the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has warned of a breakdown in global policy coordination after the Federal Reserve further cut stimulus, weakening emerging-market currencies and has called for greater cooperation among policy makers. Traders will be eyeing fiscal deficit data for the April-December period and first revised GDP data for the fiscal year that ended in March 2013, scheduled to be announced later in the day. The PSU oil marketing companies are likely to remain under pressure after the government raised the supply of cheap cooking gas cylinders to 12 per year from 9, and de-linked subsidy on the fuel from Aadhaar cards. Meanwhile, the RBI governor has called the hike in LPG cylinder quota a misdirected subsidy and said that the move will end up benefiting people who can afford to pay market rates.

There will be lots of important result announcements to keep the markets buzzing. Adani Enterprises, Alstom T&D, Bank of Maharashtra, Canara Bank, IDFC, ING Vysya Bank, IRB Infra, Marico, Merck, Motherson Sumi, NHPC, PNB, Pfizer, PVR and Union Bank are among the many to announce their numbers today.

The US markets rebounded in last session and the major indices recovered on getting report that despite slowing, US economic growth matched estimates. Also there were lots of good earnings supporting the markets. Asian indices have made a positive start, though some of the markets are closed today. Japanese market was trading in green after the statistics bureau reported that Japan’s inflation accelerated in December.

Back home, F&O expiry session turned out to be another disappointing session for the Indian equity indices which got pounded by over half percentage point. Indian barometer gauges, prolonging their southward journey for fifth consecutive session, snapped the day’s trade with over half a percent cuts on extremely large volumes on feeble global cues. Selling was both brutal and wide-based as, barring consumer durables and auto; none of sectoral indices on BSE could manage a green close. Counters, which featured in the list of worst performers, include banking, realty and metal. Though, the benchmark equity indices went on to stage a swift recovery in the last leg of trade on Thursday after suffering hefty pounding through the first half. The key gauges even breached the psychological 6,030 (Nifty) and 20,350 (Sensex) levels in the noon session as selling pressure got aggravated after the European markets made a negative opening. The Asian peers too ended in the red, as sentiments remained dampened after US Federal Reserve announced plans to scale back its bond purchases by another $10 billion. Selling in metal counter also spooked sentiments, as stocks like, Nalco, Sesa Sterlite, JSW Steel etc edged lower after weak Chinese manufacturing data. Moreover, stocks related to public oil marketing companies (OMC), viz. BPCL and HPCL ended lower on the Union Cabinet’s decision of approving a proposal to raise the quota of subsidized LPG cylinders from 9 to 12 per household in a year. However, covering of hefty short positions, in the late hours of trade, ensured that the benchmarks recover over a percentage points from the low points of the day and settled above their crucial 6,050 (Nifty) and 20,450 (Sensex) bastions. Some support also came after fertilizer stocks, like Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers (RCF) and National Fertilizers gained after Group of Ministers okayed the proposal to hike fixed cost of Urea by Rs 350 per tonne. Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged by 149.05 points or 0.72%, to settle at 20498.25, while the CNX Nifty lost 46.55 points or 0.76% to settle at 6,073.70.

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