Monday, 3 February 2014

Govt revises FY13 GDP growth estimates to 4.5% from 5% earlier

Reflecting the underlying weaknesses in Asia's third-largest economy, the annual economic growth for last fiscal has been revised to 4.5 per cent from 5 per cent earlier and against a growth of 6.7 per cent in the year 2011-12, mainly due to a sharper-than-estimated slowdown in construction and mining. While, the GDP at factor cost at constant prices in 2012-13 was estimated at Rs 54.8 lakh crore as against Rs 52.5 lakh crore in 2011-12, GDP at current prices in 2012-13 was estimated at Rs 93.9 lakh crore as against Rs 83.9 lakh crore in 2011-12.

The growth rate of 4.5 per cent in the GDP during 2012-13 is likely to be on the back of growth in financing, insurance, real estate & business services (10.9 %), transport, storage and communication (6%) and community, social and personal services (5.3 %). At constant prices, in the primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), agriculture, forestry & fishing showed a growth of  1.4 per cent, while mining declined by 2.2 per cent during 2012-13, as against the growth of 5 and 0.1 per cent, respectively during the year 2011-12.  Meanwhile, the growth of secondary sector (manufacturing, electricity, gas & water supply and construction) stood at 1.2 per cent and that of tertiary (services) sector at 7 per cent during 2012-13, as against a growth of 8.5 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.

The data also showed lower than estimated growth numbers for exports, capital investment and consumption sectors. Further, the GDP growth rate in January 2013, which was earlier estimated at 6.2 per cent, was revised upwards to 6.7 per cent for the year 2011-12. While, the growth rate of GDP for the year 2010-11 was revised down from 9.3 per cent to 8.9 per cent. The latest revisions incorporate the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) data for 2011-12, replacing the provisional Index of Industrial Production numbers and new set of data available from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government.

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