Q3 FY14 GDP seen flat at 4.8%; services may rise: Poll

The gross domestic product (GDP) for Q3 FY14 is expected to be flat on a quarterly basis. It is estimated to be around 4.8 percent, which compares to 4.5 percent on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis and 4.8 percent on a sequential basis. The revised GDP data on a Y-o-Y basis is also expected to be announced. Moreover, the FY13 GDP was revised lower to 4.5 percent versus 5 percent, but the quarterly breakup wasn’t given, so there could be a different figure which could come out. 
 Sectrolly, agriculture is expected to be anywhere between 5.3 percent and 7 percent, compared to 1 percent Y-o-Y and 4.6 percent sequentially. The industry performance is expected to be absolutely flat versus a 3.3 percent sequentially. Within the industry, one must watch out for numbers from manufacturing, construction and mining. 
However, on the services side there is expectation of an uptick to around 6 percent, which compares to 6 percent on a Y-o-Y and 6 percent on a sequentially basis as well. According to Central Statistics Office (CSO) the estimate for trade, hotel and transport services are estimated to fall to a low of 3.5 percent for FY14. 
A lot of economists do not even have an estimate for Q3FY14 GDP because it is assumed as redundant data. However, the CSO estimate is around 4.9 percent.