Tuesday, 13 January 2015

Sharp Gains In COMEX Gold, Chinese Demand Seen Rising Ahead Of Lunar New Year

Gold has gained impressively after breaking above $1200 per ounce mark. COMEX Goldjumped to two and half month high today amid continued buying support as the metalshrugged off strength in dollar and poor import figures from India. Stocks are tradingmixed in Asia as falling oil prices depress investor confidence but gold’s safe havenstatus seems to be offering it a helping hand. COMEX Gold is quoting at $1236 per ounce,up $3.20 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 27130 per 10 grams, upRs 100 per 10 grams on the day.

Traders are expecting good demand to emerge from China ahead of its Lunar New Year. Netgold imports from Hong Kong to China rose to 99.111 tonnes in November from 77.628 tonnesin October, according to the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Total imports tothe mainland, including stocks that are re-exported to Hong Kong, jumped to 149.235 tonnesin November from 111.409 tonnes in October.

The US dollar extended its gains this week, hitting fresh nine year highs under 1.1800against the Euro as calls for a full scaled quantitative easing from the European CentralBank increased after the inflation readings for the region fell into negative. TheEuropean Union's statistics agency stated that consumer prices last month were 0.2% belowtheir December 2013 levels. That was the first year-over-year fall since October 2009.Dollar has been appreciating constantly over the last few months and has played a criticalrole in keeping gold under check.

Gold started the new year on a jittery note and fell under $1200 per ounce on lack ofmajor positive catalyst and a bleak performance by crude oil prices, which lingered aroundtheir lowest level in five and half years. However, a break above $1200 per ounce turnedcrucial for gold and the metal edged up amid signs of increased volatility in the globalmarkets. Terror attacks in France also increased the safe haven appeal of the commodity.

Strong gains emerged for gold after US job growth increased briskly in December,further strengthening the case for an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve thisyear. US Nonfarm payrolls increased 252 000 last month after a revised 353 000 jump inNovember, the Labour Department noted. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point toa 6-1/2 year low of 5.6%. December marked the 11th straight month of payroll increasesabove 200 000, the longest stretch since 1994.

Meanwhile, Indian gold demand is moderating. India's gold imports have droppedsubstantially in December after surging in previous months. Gold imports had jumped afterthe government scrapped a rule that mandated traders export one-fifth of the goldconsignment imported into the country. India's Gold imports came in at just 39 tonnes inDecember after surging to 152 tonnes in November.

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