Wednesday 18 February 2015

Daily Market Strategy - Fine start, global factors in focus

After a break, the indices will look at sticking to their winning ways at least at start. Hero Motocorp could see some swings as it plans to sell $300 million worth of shares today.















 
Investors may have overall become richer by Rs. 5.5 lakh crore so far this year following the rally in equities.  The whole of last year, investors added Rs. 28 lakh crore to their wealth.  Yet, the fear has set in some quarters regarding earnings disappointment and valuations. Global market attention seems to be on Greece these days. After a break-down in talks on Monday, expectations are that Greece will seek an extension to its loan agreement. The extension could be for a period of four to six months to prevent the current rescue deal from expiring at the end of the month, a report stated.
 
After a break, the indices will look at sticking to their winning ways at least at start. Hero Motocorp could see some swings as it plans to sell $300 million worth of shares today. Suzlon too could see a spurt in volumes following open offer plans by Dilip Shanghvi Family and Associates.  Meanwhile, the Nifty has shown strong resilience, reverting sharply from the lows of 8500 levels (futures). The next major event is undoubtedly the Union Budget and indices may prefer to consolidate in a range of 8650 to 8900 levels (on spot) for the next few trading session accompanied by bouts of volatility. Barring Oil and Gas sector, rest of the sectoral indices have remained positive with banking stocks showing signs of tiredness on the upside. However, FMCG and Pharma stocks continue to remain in traders’ focus.
 
Global cues are positive. Japanese markets are cheerful powered by a weak yen. The Bank of Japan policy decision is awaited though not much is expected here despite slowing inflation and lackluster consumer spending. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is also trading higher. The Dow Jones ended flat but is a shy away from its record close. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq too ended on a flat note.
 
The government is looking to provide clarity over taxation of consortium, a structure commonly used to implement large turnkey projects. This could boost foreign investments in infra sector as taxation of consortium as 'association of persons' emerged as a key roadblock for foreign investors eyeing infrastructure sector, says a report.
 
The Centre may look to infuse about Rs 18,000 crore into public sector banks next fiscal, more than doubling the allocation from the current fiscal after a number of lenders expressed concerns over their fundraising ability due to lack of support from the government, says a report.
 
The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at  -0.39% (provisional) for the month of January, 2015 (over January, 2014) as compared to 0.11% (provisional) for the previous month and 5.11% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was -1.11% compared to a build up rate of 5.23% in the corresponding period of the previous year. 
 
The Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) said it was time full benefit was taken of the crucial macro advantage accruing to the Indian economy. 
 
Infosys announced a definitive agreement to fully acquire Panaya, Inc., a leading provider of automation technology for large scale enterprise software management, in cash, for an enterprise value of USD 200 mn.This acquisition reflects Infosys' execution of its Renew and New strategy to enhance the competitiveness and productivity of current service lines by leveraging automation , innovation and artificial intelligence. Panaya's CloudQuality suite uniquely positions Infosys to bring automation to several of its service lines via an agile Saas model, and helps mitigate risk, reduce costs and shorten time to market for clients.
 
Piyush Goyal Union Minister of State (IC) for Power, Coal & New and Renewable Energy in his opening address assured that the Government will make sure that the investments in India will be protected and encouraged. He said for a new investment destination the prerequisite is an atmosphere which makes to do business easier , consistency in policies, bankable contracts and prevalence of rule of law in the country . 
 
The Minister assured the investors that though the Government is pro-poor it understands the problems of business and will act as a facilitator. 
 
Shares of Suzlon Energy hit 20% upper circuit at Rs22 after Sun Pharmaceuticals promoter Dilip Shanghvi and family acquired 23% stake in Suzlon Energy for an equity investment of Rs 1,800 crore. 
 
Shares of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) are trading on a buoyant note this morning on the back of fuel price hike.The oil marketing companies have hiked petrol and diesel prices by 82 and 61 paise respectively in Mumbai with effect from today. This is the first price hike since August 2014, after prices of Crude Oil started to slide.
 
Shares of Unitech gained 11% at Rs18 after company posted Q3 results.The Group has posted a profit after taxes, minority interest and share of profit / (loss) of associates of Rs. 433.380 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2014 as compared to Rs. 328.257 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2013. 
 
Shares of HDIL surged 6% at Rs117 after company posted Q3 results. Consolidated Profit before Tax was at 24.12% approximately, at Rs.86.71 crores.
 
Results Watch: Ambuja Cements, SKF India, Castrol India, Sanofi India, Mawana Sugars, Goodricke Group, RR Financial Consultants.
 
Trends in FII flows: The FIIs were net sellers of Rs1.82bn in the cash segment on Monday. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also the net buyers of Rs2.8bn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.
 
Global Data: Chinese New Year Eve CNY, BoJ Monetary Policy Statement JPY, BoJ Press Conference JPY, Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting EUR, Bank of England Minutes GBP, BOE MPC Vote Cut GBP, BOE MPC Vote Hike GBP, BOE MPC Vote Unchanged GBP, Claimant Count Change (Jan) GBP, Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Dec) GBP, Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Dec) GBP, Claimant Count Rate (Jan) GBP, ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Dec) GBP, Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) (Dec) EUR, Construction Output s.a (MoM) (Dec) EUR, ZEW Survey - Expectations (Feb) CHF, 10-y Bond Auction EUR, MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 13) USD, Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Dec) CAD, Building Permits (MoM) (Jan) USD, Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan) USD, Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) USD, Producer Price Index (MoM) (Jan) USD, Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Jan) USD, Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jan) USD, Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) USD, Capacity Utilization (Jan) USD, 4-Week Bill Auction USD, FOMC Minutes USD, Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) (Q4) NZD, Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) (Q4) NZD, Foreign bond investment (Feb 13) JPY, Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Feb 13) JPY, Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Jan) JPY, Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Jan) JPY, Exports (YoY) (Jan) JPY, Imports (YoY) (Jan) JPY. 
 
In other news in the media: 
 
Encouraged by a pro-business government at the Centre, the Hinduja Group is planning to invest US$10bn in the Indian infrastructure and defence sectors. 
 
Aurobindo Pharma Limited said it expected its injectables business to grow at 50% in the next financial year and would continue to achieve a fairly higher growth in the next two to three years from then, on the back of the products lined up for approvals from the US FDA.
 
Apollo Hospitals Group signed a MoU with the Republic of Ghana to develop tertiary healthcare services in the African country and to provide specialised medical treatment for the country’s patients at some of the former’s facilities in India. 
 
YES Bank is planning to raise Rs5bn with an overallotment option through the country's first ‘green’ infrastructure bonds. The tenor of these are 10 years and the interest rate are sub-nine per cent.


Fair trade watchdog CCI has again directed Coal India Ltd to “cease and desist” from unfair business ways after finding the state-owned miner violated competition norms with respect to dry fuel supply. 
 
Mahindra & Mahindra plans to launch its electric car in Europe in the next six months as it looks to tap the rising demand for eco-friendly vehicles in the continent.


Lupin has inked a pact with Poland-based Celon Pharma to jointly develop and market a generic version of GlaxoSmithKline’s Advair Diskus, a drug used to treat asthma, in global markets. 


NTPC will invest close to US$10bn for executing green energy projects in the next five years as part of government's plans to provide thrust to clean electricity generation. 
 
Royal Enfield, the two-wheeler division of Eicher Motors, will invest R5bn this year on various activities, including setting up of two technology centres and increasing its production capacity to 4.5 lakh units annually. 
 
Punjab National Bank said government will infuse Rs8.7bn into the lender by way of equity capital for the current fiscal. 
 
State Bank of India is in the process of completing the due diligence for the controversial US$1bn loan to Adani Group for its Australian mining project and take a final call on it soon. 
 
Avantha Group company CG has been awarded with a contract by NTPC for the design, manufacture and supply of Generator Step-Up Transformers for its largest capacity 800 MW super-critical thermal power plant at Darlipali in Odisha. 
 
Indian Oil Corp will invest Rs78bn in fuel quality upgradation projects at two key refineries as well as other expansion projects. 
 
Wholesale Price Index-based Inflation entered negative territory; it fell to minus 0.39% y-o-y in January. On a month-on-month basis, too, WPI inflation dropped 0.8% in January. 
 
Implementing direct benefit transfer for food subsidy will help government save Rs250bn by eliminating costs associated with procurement, distribution and storage of foodgrains, ratings agency Crisil said. 
 
Ending months of logjam over discoveries mired in contractual disputes, the Oil Ministry has used the recently granted freedom to clear development of oil and gas discoveries worth about Rs1.5tn. 

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