Friday 27 February 2015

Sensex to open positive ahead of Economic Survey

The outlook is a positive start .The unwinding of positions and rollover in the F&O expiry brought in the usual volatility on Thursday.

Bombay-Stock-Exchange-Building

















The Railway budget is out of the way and most announcements seem to be in line with a commitment to reforms. No headline grabbing announcements in terms of new trains or new rail manufacturing. Freight rates have been increased selectively to correct some past aberrations while passenger fares have been left where they are. Allocation for upkeep of track and bridges and traffic facility works are among the specifics seen as workable and positive.

The outlook is a positive start .The unwinding of positions and rollover in the F&O expiry brought in the usual volatility on Thursday. US crude oil futures are down over 5% owing to rising inventories in the United States. The Economic Survey will be in focus today and investors may prefer to stay light ahead of the budget announcement tomorrow.

The FM is mostly likely going to surprise global rating agencies with a fiscal deficit achievement of 3.9-4.0% versus the targeted 4.1% for the year. The Rs220bn money-raising from Coal India’s Offer-for-Sale and lower crude oil price would largely help the Government beat the target. Mr. Jaitley will mostly adhere to 3% fiscal deficit target by 2016-17.

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell marginally while the Nasdaq clocked some gains. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng are flat while China's Shanghai index has inched up higher marginally.

The FII numbers may seem encouraging for Thursday but you have to factor in the big deal that came from Bharti Airtel raising a substantial amount through sale of shares in its mobile tower unit Bharti Infratel.

The S&P revised India's GDP forecast for 2015 to 8.2 per cent from 6.9 per cent earlier, and 7.9 per cent for FY16 from 6.2 per cent earlier, based on the new methodology. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for China, Japan, and the Asian  Tiger economies, it said in a report published today, titled "Stronger U.S. Economy And Lower Oil Prices Aren't Boosting Asia-Pacific Growth."

Shares of Titagarh Wagons were  flat at Rs. 582, while Texmaco Rail & Engineering shares ended 3% lower at Rs. 135. Kalindee Rail Nirman Engineers stock was down 4% at Rs. 136.

Suresh Prabhu said that there will be no hike in passengers, While Prabhu  made changes in freight rates. The Budget also revised the commodity classification and distance slabs for carriage of commodities that can raise freight rates upto 10% in some of the items.

Railways will increase its daily passenger carrying capacity from 21million to 30 million. Presenting the Railway Budget 2015-16 in Parliament, Suresh Prabhu said, Railways will also increase track length by 20% from 1,14,000 km to 1,38,000 km, and grow its annual freight carrying capacity from 1 billion to 1.5 billion tonnes.

There were no new trains were announced in the Railway Budget  by Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu who assured Parliament that these would be announced in the ongoing session itself.

Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), which represents GSM telecom operators, has termed "flimsy" the government's reason for not putting up more 3G spectrum on sale in next month's auction. It has added that the Supreme Court's order that nothing in the sale will be finalised without its nod has added uncertainty to the auction process.

Shares of Jet Airways Ltd were down 4% at Rs 435 after airline announced a seven-day special offer with discounts ranging from 5% to 35% on base fares for return journeys in Premiere and Economy class on its international flights.

Shares of DLF Ltd were up 2% at Rs150 after company said that it keeps exploring various opportunities to enhance shareholder value, which includes M&A, divestment of assets and fund raising opportunities.

Metal stocks were lower following the hike in freight rates for coal, iron & steel and pig iron. SAIL stock was down 3.5% to Rs. 67.60, while Hindalco and Orissa Mines were down over 2% each to Rs. 150 and Rs. 2,878, respectively 

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