Good governments can improve physical infrastructure and this can create a strong backdrop for economic growth, says Jim Walker.
IIFL’s sixth Enterprising India Global Investors’ conference is underway in Mumbai. Delivering the keynote address, Dr. Jim Walker, renowned economist and Founder & MD of Asianomics said, “Virtual connectivity (higher mobile and Internet penetration) has increased significantly in Asia, especially India and China. This offsets some of the slack of weak physical infrastructure. Connectivity frees economies.”
Good governments can improve physical infrastructure and this can create a strong backdrop for economic growth, says Jim Walker.
“India is at the start of a new business cycle. Modi will hopefully provide good government and thus governance in place now. External balances are no longer concerning. Inflation scare is over. RBI will cut rates by 100-150bps. Rupee is under-valued but unlikely to appreciate. Indian markets are not expensive given the 5-10yr growth story,” Dr. Walker said.
Speaking on China, he said the country grew 5-6% last year and growth is likely to slowdown further to 3-5% by next year with downside risks. “Job creation in services sector is offsetting weakness in manufacturing and property. There will be more monetary easing with upto 200bps rate cuts this year. However there is unlikely to be credit expansion or fiscal stimulus. Currency devaluation is possible if growth remains weak,” he added.
Enterprising India-VI will see all major sectors well represented with maximum representation from the Banking and Finance sector (16 companies), followed by IT (10) and Capital Goods & Engineering (7). Sectors such as FMCG, Utilities, Agri-business, Pharma, Media, Cement and Auto will have representations from 4-6 companies. The list of companies from the sectors represented are of varied sizes; 34 companies have market cap of more than US$5 bn, 34 companies have market cap of US$ 1-5bn and 28 companies have market cap of less than US$1b.
Mr. Prabodh Agarwal, Head of Research, Institutional Equities, IIFL, said, “The theme of this year's conference is ‘Vibrant India.’ We believe 2015 would be another good year for Indian equities with key macro factors showing signs of turning around. A cyclical upturn should drive a sharp bounce back in earnings, helped by a sharp drop in prices of commodities, interest rate cuts, and change in business and consumer sentiments.”
The conference will be graced by a host of imminent dignitaries including Mr. SS Mundra, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India, Dr. Jim Walker, Founder & MD, Asianomics Macro Ltd, Chris Roberts, Renowned market technical analyst, Ireena Vittal, Advisor (Business Building, Emerging Markets, Indian Agri, Urbanization), Raghav Chadha, Aam Aadmi Party, Adesh Sharma, Managing Director, DFCC, T.N. Ninan, Editorial Director, Business Standard, Vishwanathan Anand, Chess Grandmaster, and many others
IIFL’s sixth Enterprising India Global Investors’ conference is underway in Mumbai. Delivering the keynote address, Dr. Jim Walker, renowned economist and Founder & MD of Asianomics said, “Virtual connectivity (higher mobile and Internet penetration) has increased significantly in Asia, especially India and China. This offsets some of the slack of weak physical infrastructure. Connectivity frees economies.”
Good governments can improve physical infrastructure and this can create a strong backdrop for economic growth, says Jim Walker.
“India is at the start of a new business cycle. Modi will hopefully provide good government and thus governance in place now. External balances are no longer concerning. Inflation scare is over. RBI will cut rates by 100-150bps. Rupee is under-valued but unlikely to appreciate. Indian markets are not expensive given the 5-10yr growth story,” Dr. Walker said.
Speaking on China, he said the country grew 5-6% last year and growth is likely to slowdown further to 3-5% by next year with downside risks. “Job creation in services sector is offsetting weakness in manufacturing and property. There will be more monetary easing with upto 200bps rate cuts this year. However there is unlikely to be credit expansion or fiscal stimulus. Currency devaluation is possible if growth remains weak,” he added.
Enterprising India-VI will see all major sectors well represented with maximum representation from the Banking and Finance sector (16 companies), followed by IT (10) and Capital Goods & Engineering (7). Sectors such as FMCG, Utilities, Agri-business, Pharma, Media, Cement and Auto will have representations from 4-6 companies. The list of companies from the sectors represented are of varied sizes; 34 companies have market cap of more than US$5 bn, 34 companies have market cap of US$ 1-5bn and 28 companies have market cap of less than US$1b.
Mr. Prabodh Agarwal, Head of Research, Institutional Equities, IIFL, said, “The theme of this year's conference is ‘Vibrant India.’ We believe 2015 would be another good year for Indian equities with key macro factors showing signs of turning around. A cyclical upturn should drive a sharp bounce back in earnings, helped by a sharp drop in prices of commodities, interest rate cuts, and change in business and consumer sentiments.”
The conference will be graced by a host of imminent dignitaries including Mr. SS Mundra, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India, Dr. Jim Walker, Founder & MD, Asianomics Macro Ltd, Chris Roberts, Renowned market technical analyst, Ireena Vittal, Advisor (Business Building, Emerging Markets, Indian Agri, Urbanization), Raghav Chadha, Aam Aadmi Party, Adesh Sharma, Managing Director, DFCC, T.N. Ninan, Editorial Director, Business Standard, Vishwanathan Anand, Chess Grandmaster, and many others
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