Thursday 5 March 2015

Daily Market Strategy - After rate cut, nothing exceptional for indices soon

The outlook is a weak start. The indices will look at taking support around these levels ahead of a Holi-day tomorrow 


The RBI did its surprise act yet again and cut repo rate by 25bps to 7.5%. Significant dip in inflationary pressures and moderation in core inflation and need to support economic growth prompted the move. To an extent, the policy document sounds like it is moving from a restrained approach to a dynamic one. Whether the central bank proactively pushes growth in ensuing meetings or not remains to be seen now.

For the market, it was yet another swinging day. The indices hit new peaks and came crashing down. Again no point in attributing reasons but profit booking at higher levels and interpretations of a likelihood of a downgrade by a rating agency could have sparked some sell off. S&P official was quoted as saying that the Indian government has to deliver on reforms and the fiscal front for it to consider an upgrade.

The outlook is a weak start. The indices will look at taking support around these levels ahead of a Holi-day tomorrow. Global cues have nothing to encourage a start in the green. US jobs data is due tomorrow and ECB meeting later today will be in focus.

The Dow fell 0.58% while S&P 500 shed 0.44%. Nasdaq was down 0.26%.  Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 and China's Shanghai trading higher while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is in the red.

Reliance Infra will be in focus today. Reliance Defence Systems along with Reliance Infrastructure is set to enter the defence sector by acquiring Pipavav Defence in an all-cash deal.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan in a concall said, “Excessively strong rupee is undesirable and forex intervention will reduce avoidable volatility”.  Rajan elaborated, “No doubt recent rate cuts will feed into lower loan rate. We hope to see transmissions to lending rates as we get into FY16, he added.

Housing Development Infrastructure Limited (HDIL), has put on block 113.47 acre industrial plot in Gujarat. The Company’s decision is in line with its philosophy of exiting non-core assets and focusing on debt reduction. The stock ended 2% lower at Rs. 113.

Avantha Power & Infrastructure Limited (APIL) confirmed the signing of a Binding Share Purchase Agreement with Adani Power Ltd. for 100 per cent acquisition of APIL's Korba West Power Company Ltd. (KWPCL). KWPCL, a SPV of APIL, has a commissioned coal based thermal power plant of 600 MW. KWPCL is valued in excess of Rs. 4200 crores.

Nitesh Estates stock hit 20% upper circuit at Rs. 12.58. The Company clarified that it is in midst of two large transaction and are governed under the Non Disclosure Clause.

Shares of Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd hits 5% upper circuit at Rs. 430. The company announced USFDA approval of ELEPSIA XR (Levetiracetam) extended-release tablets 1000 mg and 1500 mg).

Suzlon Ltd stock ended lower by 6% at Rs. 25.Report said that the company is expecting to turn profitable in the fiscal year starting on 1 April after six years of losses, its chairman Tulsi Tanti reported.

Shares of Essar Ports Ltd hit 5% upper circuit at Rs. 124. The company clarified that the news item as reported in the media is speculative and as such we are not in a position to comment on market speculation. Earlier Reports stated that Gautam Adani led Adani Ports & SEZ is said to be in talks with Essar Group to acquire its ports business.

Metals stock ended lower. Sesa Sterlite and NMDC plunged over 4.5% each to Rs. 212 and Rs. 132, respectively. Bhushan Steel was the biggest per centage loser, down 8.5 per cent at Rs. 92.20.Hindalco dropped 3.5 per cent to Rs. 153. Orissa Mines, SAIL, Coal India, Jindal Saw, Jindal Steel and Tata Steel were down 2-3 per cent each.

Events: Interest Rate Decision; ECB Interest Rate Decision; ECB Monetary policy statement

Trends in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs27.86bn in the cash segment on Wednesday. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also the net sellers of Rs168mn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

Global Data: Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Jan) AUD, Trade Balance (Jan) AUD, Exports (Jan) AUD, Imports (Jan) AUD, ILO Unemployment (Q4) EUR, Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Jan) EUR, Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (Jan) EUR, Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4) EUR, Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4) EUR, Unemployment Rate (MoM) (Dec) EUR, 10-y Bond Auction EUR, BoE Interest Rate Decision GBP, BoE Asset Purchase Facility GBP, Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Feb) USD, ECB Interest Rate Decision EUR, ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference EUR, Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 27) USD, Continuing Jobless Claims (Feb 20) USD, Unit Labor Costs (Q4) USD, Nonfarm Productivity (Q3) USD, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Feb) CAD, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Feb) CAD, Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) USD, FOMC Member Williams speech USD, EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Feb 27) USD, AiG Performance of Construction Index (Feb) AUD, JP Foreign Reserves (Feb) JPY.

In other news in the media

Battered by the historic decline in global crude oil prices, Cairn India has announced a 58% cut in its projected capital expenditure for the next financial year to US$500mn from the earlier projection of US$1.2bn.

Adani Power bagged Jitpur mine in Jharkhand while Usha Martin won Brinda and Sisai mines in the same state in the second tranche of coal mine auction.

Mahindra Holidays, the leisure hospitality market leader from the Mahindra & Mahindra group will invest Rs5bn in setting up 8-9 new resorts in the country over the next 18-20 months.

The Bombay High Court adjourned hearing of the petition filed by Financial Technologies (India) pledging to restrain the Ministry of Corporate Affairs' attempt to supersede FTIL board for which the MCA approached the Company Law Board.

Bajaj Auto launched Bajaj Platina electric start. The company claims it to be the most fuel efficient bike in 100 cc segment to deliver 96.9 kmpl as per ARAI testing.

Adani Group has concluded the Rs42bn deal to purchase Avantha group's 600MW Korba West power plant. The two companies signed an MoU last November and have now signed a binding share purchase agreement for 100% acquisition of the power plant, Avantha group announced.

HDIL has put on the block an industrial plot in Gujarat as part of its plans to reduce debt.

State Bank of India plans to raise between Rs110bn and Rs150bn via share sale by next month end, two sources directly involved in the process said.

To cater to the rising demand, Grasim Industries completed the last phase of its greenfield VSF plant at Vilayat in Gujarat. With this, the company’s VSF capacity at Vilayat is enhanced to 120,000 tonnes per annum.

Tata Steel’s arm in Canada is expected to commission later this month its integrated all-weather iron ore processing facility near its mine site in the North American country.

Stempeutics Research has received a process patent from the United States Patent and Trademarks Office for its novel stem cell-based drug Stempeucel. The company is part of the Manipal Education and Medical Group and Cipla entered into a joint alliance with it in 2009.

Titagarh Wagons said its board has approved raising up to Rs2.5bn through issuance of equity and splitting of shares of the company into a ratio of 1:5.

IDBI Bank said it proposes to raise Rs200bn through bond issuance from domestic market next fiscal.

In a bid to bring in reforms in the mining sector and enhance transparency, the government plans to auction minerals such as iron ore, bauxite and manganese, Parliament was informed.

The HSBC services PMI rose to an eight-month high of 53.9 in February up from 52.4 in January indicating strong expansion in output across the sector.

The Reserve Bank of India lowered its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5%, its second inter-meeting cut this year on the back of easing inflation and what it said was "weak state" of parts of the economy.

The Reserve Bank said the uncertainty surrounding global oil prices can have an adverse bearing on the inflation outlook though it will endeavor to bring it down to the target of 4% by 2016-17.

India's imports of thermal and coking coal jumped 31% in February from a year ago, as new power plants ramped up output, though purchases sank month-on-month on rising prices.

The biggest ever auction of 2G and 3G airwaves began on a high note with operators making bids worth an estimated Rs600bn after six rounds of bidding in all four bands.
TEN MOST ACTIVE FUTURES
Symbol
No.of Cont Traded
Last price
Open Interest
% chg in Op.Int
SBIN
82,730
295.50
86,388,750
4.77
AXISBANK
57,631
615.95
29,032,500
-3.57
SUNPHARMA
48,787
1,008.95
14,784,000
6.21
ITC
38,095
346.95
62,343,000
3.99
HDFCBANK
36,313
1,076.20
46,142,250
0.52
RELIANCE
28,430
892.80
36,007,750
-0.45
LT
24,726
1,842.05
7,600,750
-9.63
YESBANK
24,185
862.75
9,395,500
0.40
TATAMOTORS
23,974
575.40
19,152,000
-0.87
RELINFRA
21,572
476.65
7,365,000
-4.52
TEN MOST ACTIVE OPTIONS
Option Type
Strike price
No.of Cont Traded
Open Interest
% Chg in Op.In
SBIN
CE
310
9,834
5,095,000
46.25
JPASSOCIAT
CE
30
8,874
9,904,000
55.33
SBIN
CE
320
8,323
5,086,250
51.43
ITC
CE
360
7,149
3,682,000
38.73
SBIN
PE
300
7,105
2,448,750
11.24
ITC
CE
350
6,243
3,047,000
23.81
SBIN
CE
300
6,084
5,508,750
11.88
SUNPHARMA
CE
1,000
6,075
123,500
11.01
SBIN
PE
290
4,909
1,606,250
43.90
RELIANCE
CE
900
4,645
726,250
-0.92
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL
Company Name
S3
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
R3
Sensex Index
28,895
29,013
29,138
29,381
29,624
29,749
29,866
Nifty Index
8,774
8,810
8,848
8,923
8,997
9,035
9,071
ABB Ltd
1,370
1,374
1,378
1,386
1,394
1,398
1,402
ACC
1,687
1,696
1,705
1,724
1,742
1,752
1,761
Ambuja Cements
267
269
271
275
279
281
283
Bajaj Holdings
1,382
1,385
1,389
1,397
1,405
1,409
1,412
BHEL
263
265
267
270
274
275
277
Bharti Airte
345
347
348
351
354
356
357
Cipla
708
712
716
725
733
737
741
Dabur India
260
261
262
264
266
267
268
GAIL India
401
402
404
407
409
411
412
Grasim Ind.
3,781
3,805
3,831
3,882
3,932
3,958
3,982
HCL Tech
2,017
2,022
2,027
2,036
2,045
2,050
2,055
HDFC Bank
1,035
1,043
1,050
1,065
1,080
1,088
1,095
Hero Honda
2,579
2,589
2,600
2,621
2,643
2,654
2,664
Hindalco
147
149
150
153
156
157
159
Hindustan Unilever
895
900
906
916
927
932
937
ICICI Bank
336
339
342
349
355
358
361
Infosys Tech
2,232
2,242
2,252
2,273
2,293
2,303
2,313
ITC Ltd
339
340
342
344
347
348
350
L&T
1,789
1,801
1,814
1,839
1,864
1,877
1,889
MTNL
26
26
26
27
27
27
27
M&M
1,173
1,182
1,192
1,212
1,231
1,241
1,251
Maruti Suzuki
3,580
3,602
3,625
3,669
3,714
3,737
3,758
Mahindra Satyam
2,835
2,846
2,858
2,882
2,905
2,917
2,928
National Alumin
49
49
49
49
50
50
50
ONGC
315
317
318
320
323
324
325
Oriental Bank
233
236
239
246
253
257
260
PNB
153
156
159
165
170
173
176
Ranbaxy Labs
731
743
756
782
808
821
834
Reliance Capital
448
452
456
465
474
478
483
Reliance Comm
64
65
66
67
68
69
69
Reliance Energy
451
457
463
475
487
493
499
Reliance Inds
868
873
878
887
896
901
906
R Power
58
58
59
60
62
62
63
Siemens India
1,375
1,383
1,392
1,409
1,426
1,435
1,443
SBI
279
282
286
294
302
306
310
TCS
2,683
2,697
2,713
2,743
2,774
2,789
2,804
Tata Motors
560
563
567
574
581
584
588
Tata Power
81
82
83
84
86
87
87
Tata Steel
341
342
344
348
351
353
355
Tata comm
407
411
415
423
432
436
440
Wipro
646
649
652
658
664
667
670
Wire And Wireless
35
36
36
37
38
39
39
Zee Entertainment
336
337
339
342
345
346
348

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