Wednesday 4 March 2015

Repo rate cut! What prompted the RBI to act suddenly?

The need to act outside the policy review cycle is prompted by two factors, says RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. First, any policy action should be anticipatory once sufficient data support the policy stance. Second, after deal on monetary policy framework, RBI has to offer guidance on how it will implement the mandate.

Crony capitalism a big threatThe Reserve Bank of India reduced the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 7.75 per cent to 7.5 per cent with immediate effect.

The RBI kept the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).

The central bank continued to provide liquidity under overnight repos at 0.25 per cent of bank-wise NDTL at the LAF repo rate and liquidity under 7-day and 14-day term repos of up to 0.75 per cent of NDTL of the banking system through auctions.

The RBI also continued with daily variable rate repos and reverse repos to smooth liquidity.

Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 6.5 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 8.5 per cent with immediate effect.

Softer readings on inflation are expected to come in through the first half of 2015-16 before firming up to below 6 per cent in the second half, Dr. Raghuram G Rajan, RBI Governor, said in the Monetary Policy statement today.

The fiscal consolidation programme, while delayed, may compensate in quality, especially if state governments are cooperative. Given low capacity utilisation and still-weak indicators of production and credit off-take, it is appropriate for the Reserve Bank to be pre-emptive in its policy action to utilise available space for monetary accommodation.

The need to act outside the policy review cycle is prompted by two factors: First, while the next bi-monthly policy statement will be issued on April 7, 2015 the still weak state of certain sectors of the economy as well as the global trend towards easing suggests that any policy action should be anticipatory once sufficient data support the policy stance. Second, with the release of the agreement on the monetary policy framework, it is appropriate for the Reserve Bank to offer guidance on how it will implement the mandate.

Going forward, the RBI will seek to bring the inflation rate to the mid-point of the band of 4 +/- 2 per cent provided for in the agreement, i.e., to 4 per cent by the end of a two year period starting fiscal year 2016-17.

The guidance on policy action given in the fifth-bi-monthly monetary policy statement of December 2014 is largely unchanged. Further monetary actions will be conditioned by incoming data, especially on the easing of supply constraints, improved availability of key inputs such as power, land, minerals and infrastructure, continuing progress on high-quality fiscal consolidation, the pass through of past rate cuts into lending rates, the monsoon outturn and developments in the international environment.

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