Tuesday 2 June 2015

Auto sales in May: No Shift in Sector Trends!

Auto sales in May continued with the sector trends exhibited in April - strong PV/CV performance, but weak sales in Motorcycles and tractor segments, says a Jeffries report.

Maruti & AL both outperformed the industry growth and have gained further mkt share in their respective segments. Monsoon pattern and new launches in the coming months in Scooter and UV1 segments will likely be the trigger for shift in sector trends going forward, a report added.
 
Auto sales in May continued with the sector trends exhibited in April - strong PV/CV performance, but weak sales in Motorcycles and tractor segments, says a Jeffries report. Maruti & AL both outperformed the industry growth and have gained further mkt share in their re-spective segments. Monsoon pattern and new launches in the coming months in Scooter and UV1 segments will likely be the trigger for shift in sector trends going forward, the report authored by Apurva Kumar and Govindarajan Chellappa added.
 
Following are the highlights of the report:
 
Maruti's entry level segment registered another month of strong growth (+21% YoY), likely led by increase in first time urban buyers. UV sales, however, shrunk sharply for Tata Motors (-15% YoY), and Mahindra (-5% YoY), and was muted for Maruti (+6% YoY) as higher diesel prices post diesel deregulation have shifted consumer preference towards petrol vehicles.
 
Motorcycle and tractor sales remained weak due to rural slowdown, a trend that is likely to persist in the near-term. Hero registered 5% decline in sales while M&M tractor sales were down 20% this month. Scooter & premium motorcycles sales remained robust in May.
 
MHCV segment continued with the uptick in volumes off a low base. AL has likely gained further mkt share in MHCV space with a growth of 41% YoY, more than twice the growth for Tata Motors. Going for-ward, we expect the CV cycle to further strengthen from here and volume recovery to sustain.
 
Weighted Input commodity price index for CVs to 2Ws is down c15-16% YoY as the prices of steel (- 15.2% YoY) and rubber (-14.9% YoY) have remained benign.
 
Petrol consumption registered double digit growth for 5th month in a row off a strong base while Diesel consumption grew 9% despite a weaker base. Post diesel de-regulation, petrol consumption has in-creased 14% YoY, while diesel consumption has grown only 2% YoY.
 
Gross bank credit growth for personal vehicle loans registered a steep fall in April likely due to: a) lower disbursals; and b)write-offs during fiscal end.
 
Our channel checks reveal that Maruti has increased discounts on Alto and WagonR in metro cities in the month of June.
 
Dealers in UK have indicated that the waiting period for JLR's latest offering XE is close to 16-20 weeks currently. 

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