Friday 18 September 2015

Sensex Likely to Open Higher as Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Rupee Rallies

The Sensex and Nifty are likely to open higher after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. The SGX CNX Nifty was trading 0.37 per cent higher at 7,970, indicating a positive start for Indian stock markets. The rupee rallied 32 paise to inch up to 66.14/dollar in early trade today.

Here are top 10 developments

1) The gains in the Indian markets are likely to be capped with some Asian markets struggling today amid worries over global growth. Overnight, the Wall Street also gave up gains to end lower.

2) US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, acknowledging the worries about the global economy, financial market volatility and sluggish inflation at home, but left open the possibility of a modest policy tightening later this year.

3) Referring to the global outlook, Fed chairperson Janet Yellen explicitly said the central bank was focusing on the slowdown in China and emerging markets, saying one key issue is whether there might be a risk of a more abrupt slowdown in China.

4) The Fed chairperson's cautious commentary on emerging countries is also likely to foreign investors cautious on Indian markets, analysts say.

5) Analysts would be closely watching how fund flows from foreign investors, who sold a record Rs 16,877 crore (net) worth of domestic stocks in August, leading to the recent selloff in Indian markets. On top of that, they sold nearly Rs 7,000 crore so far this month.

6) Analysts say the next trigger for markets would be the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy review on September 29. Most analysts say the RBI may cut rates by at least 25 bps.

7) RBI chief Raghuram Rajan had earlier indicated the central bank may take a mid-policy rate action if needed.

8) The value of the rupee will also be closely watched. A Fed rate hike could have hurt the Indian currency.

9) Despite the uncertainty over Fed move out of the way for now, analysts don't see meaningful upside to India markets (Nifty) beyond 8,100 in the short term.

10) They say with the forthcoming earnings season beginning next month and Bihar elections would keep markets cautious.        

No comments:

Post a Comment