Monday, 30 November 2015

Daily Market Strategy – Hopes on GST! Flat start in offing for Sensex, Nifty

The outlook is a flat start. Focus will be on interest-rate sensitives for the next day or two. Global markets are on the weaker side. This week is data heavy with GDP numbers coming in today after market hours and RBI monetary policy on Tuesday.


Daily Market Strategy, DMS
Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions. - Peter Drucker 
 
Hopes are high on the GST Bill front after Prime Minister Narendra Modi warmed up to a meeting with Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh to discuss the same on Friday. The Indian market managed to carve out gains for the week even as sentiment in global markets were subdued with China crashing by nearly 5% on reports that probe into brokers had widened. The December series has started off with a positive note after a disappointing November series where the Nifty lost close to 3% on an expiry to expiry basis. Relative outperformance from banks was overshadowed by price destruction in Pharma, IT and capital goods space after earnings and events disappointments.
 
The outlook is a flat start. Focus will be on interest-rate sensitives for the next day or two. Global markets are on the weaker side. This week is data heavy with GDP numbers coming in today after market hours and RBI monetary policy on Tuesday. Among the other important macro-economic data includes the October fiscal deficit. Besides IPO announcements of two companies, Alkem Laboratories and Dr Lal Pathlabs are expected this week.
 
After a hefty 50 basis points cut during September, markets do not expect much to happen on the rate front during the December RBI monetary policy review. The central bank has undertaken four cuts this calendar year, with interest rates softening by cumulative 125 basis points. It is likely that the central bank will pause to gauge the recent spike in food prices and assess whether lower inflationary levels are sustainable. 
 
The Nikkei and Shanghai have shed 0.3% each. Hong Kong's Hang Seng has lost 0.2% while South Korea's Kospi is down over 1.5%. Taiwan's TWSE is also trading over a percent lower. The euro is near a seven-month low ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy later this week. The International Monetary Fund is expected to add Chinese yuan to its benchmark currency basket today.
 
Nestle India could be in focus as the board of directors on December 04, 2015 may consider declaration of second interim dividend for the year 2015, if any.
Investors are also focusing on the ECB's policy decision on Thursday, with growing expectations that the ECB could cut interest rates by 20 basis points.
 
Emami Paper Mills Ltd. plans to invest an additional INR 1,000 crore in the next three years to double the capacity at its Balasore, Odisha plant. The company has set up 1.32 lakh tonne high-end paper boards manufacturing facility at INR 1,000 crore at Balasore. The company produces 1.5 lakh tonnes of newsprint and 15,000 tonnes of writing & printing paper annually.
 
Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) is facing a 40% cut in the marketing margin it charges on selling its KG-D6 gas to fertilizer and LPG plants after the Government notified a ceiling of INR 200 per thousand standard cubic meters (scm), reports a business daily. RIL was charging US$0.135 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) as marketing margin on sale of KG-D6 gas. This is over and above the gas price of US$4.24 per mmBtu.
 
Maruti Suzuki will invest INR 15,000 crore over the next five years in procuring land for doubling its dealership network and expanding stockyard, warehouse & transportation infrastructure, Chairman R C Bhargava has been quoted as saying by a business daily. "The total money needed for creating additional sales-and-service infrastructure has been estimated to be INR 30,000 crore. Of that, half the money will be invested by us, and the rest by dealers," says Bhargava. 
 
Gulf airlines have shown interest in buying a stake in budget airline SpiceJet, says its Chairman Ajay Singh. "Some of the Gulf airlines have expressed an interest in SpiceJet as we have come back into the market, but this is not the right time to be diluting the equity," Singh said in Dubai on Sunday. "There is some dialogue which is ongoing and we continue to explore other types of relationships we could have," he said.
 
PVR expects to add at least 23 screens in the current financial year to take the total to 500."Our target is to reach 1,000 screens quickly. The shorter target is to get to 500 screens in this financial year and then look at going to 1,000 screens," PVR Cinemas COO Gautam Dutta said on Sunday. PVR currently operates 477 screens across 44 cities in the country.
 
The Indian Government is expected to spend US$95 billion (over INR 6.34 lakh crore) on ramping up its rail infrastructure, a step that will help in increasing the country’s manufacturing competitiveness, says a report by US investment bank Morgan Stanley.
 
French President Francois Hollande and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will on Monday launch an international solar alliance aimed at bringing clean and affordable solar energy to the masses. The alliance would also include around 50 African countries. 
 
Global Data:   Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Oct) INR, Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR (Oct) INR, ANZ Business Confidence (Nov) NZD, HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) AUD, Private Sector Credit (YoY) (Oct) AUD, Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct) AUD, Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q3) AUD, M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Oct) NZD, Vehicle Production (YoY) (Oct) JPY, Annualized Housing Starts (Oct) JPY, Housing Starts (YoY) (Oct) JPY, Construction Orders (YoY) (Oct) JPY, Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) EUR, KOF Leading Indicator (Nov) CHF, Current Account Balance (Sep) EUR, Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) (Oct) GBP, Consumer Credit (Oct) GBP, Mortgage Approvals (Oct) GBP, M4 Money Supply (YoY) (Oct) GBP, M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Oct) GBP, 30-y Bond Auction EUR, Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) (Nov) PreliminarEUR, Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Nov)Preliminar EUR, Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) (Nov)Preliminar EUR, Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)Preliminar EUR, Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) EUR, Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) EUR, Producer Price Index (MoM) (Oct) EUR, Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3) EUR, Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) EUR, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Nov)Preliminar EUR, Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)Preliminar EUR, Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Nov)Preliminar EUR, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Nov) Preliminar EUR, Current Account (Q3) CAD, Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Nov) USD, Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Oct) USD, Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) USD, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Nov) USD, Terms of Trade Index (Q3) NZD, AiG Performance of Mfg Index (Nov) AUD, Capital Spending (Q3) JPY
 
Trends in FII flows: The FIIs were net sellers of Rs.5.19 bn in the cash segment on Friday. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs.9 bn as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.
 
In other news in the media: 
 
YES Bank has invoked 3.02% of United Breweries’ stake pledged by Vijay Mallya and valued at Rs 7.7bn for loans defaulted by the defunct Kingfisher Airlines. (BS)
 
Multiplex chain operator PVR expects to add at least 23 screens in the current financial year to take the total to 500 in the same fiscal. (BS)
 
Emami Paper Mills Ltd, the country's largest newsprint manufacturer, has decided to increase investment in paperboards to Rs 20bn in the next three years to strengthen its diversification to the high-margin segment. (BS)
 
Budget airline SpiceJet plans to order more than 150 planes in the current financial year, the airline's chairman said. (ET)
 
Indiabulls Housing Finance plans to raise $500mn by selling rupee denominated bonds in the next four months, its vice-chairman and managing director Gagan Banga said. (ET)
 
Reliance Industries is facing a 40% cut in the marketing margin it charges on selling its KG-D6 gas to fertilizer and LPG plants after the government notified a ceiling of Rs 200 per thousand standard cubic meters (scm). (ET)
 
Cipla said it has inked an investment agreement with FIL Capital Investments (Mauritius) II Limited for its consumer healthcare business. (BS)
 
Nestle India said that its pasta product -Maggi Pazzta is safe and that the Lucknow lab, where the alleged test was undertaken was not NABL accredited. (BL)
 
India and Japan have inked an agreement for Rs 55bn official development assistance for Chennai and Ahmedabad metros, a finance ministry statement said. (ET)
 
The government today said it has advanced the date for implementation of the roll out of Bharat Stage (BS) stage V and VI norms for four-wheelers by 3 years. (BL)
 
The Finance Ministry will hold a review meeting with banks and RBI representatives on Tuesday to assess the gold monetisation scheme, which has seen a “slow response” since the launch earlier this month, to make it more attractive. (BL)
 
India can begin import of uranium from Australia immediately, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has said, days after prime ministers of the two nations announced the completion of procedures necessary for a landmark bilateral nuclear deal. (BS)

TEN MOST ACTIVE FUTURES
Symbol
No.of Cont Traded
Last price
Open Interest
% chg in Op.Int
AXISBANK
20,352
474.55
40,774,000
8.88
SBIN
17,815
250.05
59,400,000
0.12
LT
15,214
1,368.80
10,945,500
-5.73
TATAMOTORS
14,270
417.60
25,024,500
1.73
ICICIBANK
12,699
270.20
55,039,200
-0.03
MARUTI
10,666
4,608.00
1,796,125
7.89
SKSMICRO
10,316
456.20
7,484,000
0.43
TATASTEEL
10,185
231.85
33,308,000
2.12
BANKBARODA
9,492
179.90
41,676,400
2.85
RELIANCE
8,966
984.90
22,444,000
1.49
TEN MOST ACTIVE OPTIONS
Option Type
Strike price
No.of Cont Traded
Open Interest
% Chg in Op.In
LT
CE
1,400
3,111
521,400
12.13
SBIN
CE
250
2,455
2,340,000
36.20
RELIANCE
CE
1,000
2,272
738,000
65.84
AXISBANK
CE
480
2,088
869,000
76.27
ASHOKLEY
CE
100
1,938
3,787,000
87.85
SBIN
CE
260
1,898
1,590,000
99.25
DRREDDY
CE
3,200
1,689
129,300
57.30
DRREDDY
PE
3,000
1,547
93,000
6.16
LT
CE
1,350
1,375
152,700
-0.39
SBIN
PE
240
1,352
1,484,000
54.26
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL
Company Name
S3
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
R3
Sensex Index
25,965
26,005
26,047
26,128
26,210
26,252
26,291
Nifty Index
7,890
7,903
7,916
7,943
7,969
7,983
7,995
ABB Ltd
1,137
1,143
1,148
1,160
1,171
1,177
1,182
ACC
1,339
1,343
1,347
1,355
1,363
1,367
1,371
Ambuja Cements
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
Bajaj Holdings
1,675
1,682
1,690
1,706
1,722
1,730
1,738
BHEL
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
Bharti Airte
338
339
340
342
343
344
345
Cipla
637
639
640
643
645
647
648
Dabur India
272
273
274
276
278
279
280
GAIL India
362
363
365
368
370
372
373
Grasim Ind.
3,707
3,713
3,719
3,731
3,743
3,749
3,755
HCL Tech
864
865
867
870
873
874
875
HDFC Bank
1,067
1,069
1,073
1,079
1,085
1,088
1,091
Hero Honda
2,669
2,677
2,686
2,704
2,722
2,731
2,739
Hindalco
75
76
76
78
79
79
80
Hindustan Unilever
810
812
814
818
821
823
825
ICICI Bank
266
267
268
270
272
273
273
Infosys Tech
1,051
1,055
1,059
1,066
1,074
1,078
1,082
ITC Ltd
340
341
342
344
346
347
348
L&T
1,345
1,349
1,354
1,364
1,373
1,378
1,383
MTNL
20
20
21
21
21
21
21
M&M
1,333
1,337
1,341
1,348
1,356
1,359
1,363
Maruti Suzuki
4,521
4,536
4,551
4,580
4,609
4,625
4,639
Mahindra Satyam
528
529
531
533
536
537
539
National Alumin
39
39
39
40
40
41
41
ONGC
233
233
234
235
237
237
238
Oriental Bank
148
150
152
155
159
161
162
PNB
140
141
142
144
146
148
149
Ranbaxy Labs
732
734
736
740
744
746
748
Reliance Capital
426
428
429
433
436
438
439
Reliance Comm
72
73
73
74
75
75
76
Reliance Energy
424
426
428
432
436
439
441
Reliance Inds
967
970
973
979
985
988
991
R Power
49
49
50
51
52
53
53
Siemens India
1,213
1,217
1,221
1,230
1,238
1,242
1,246
SBI
245
246
247
250
252
253
254
TCS
2,336
2,340
2,344
2,353
2,361
2,365
2,369
Tata Motors
407
410
412
418
423
425
428
Tata Power
65
66
66
66
67
67
67
Tata Steel
227
228
229
231
233
235
236
Tata comm
422
424
426
431
435
437
439
Wipro
565
567
568
570
572
574
575
Wire And Wireless
32
32
33
33
33
34
34
Zee Entertainment
406
408
409
411
414
415
416

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