Thursday 17 December 2015

Daily Market Strategy - Fed does it! Sensex, Nifty set to join global cheer at start

The outlook is a positive start. The Nifty is finally approaching the critical resistance level, which is neckline of the bearish head and shoulder on the daily chart. If Nifty manages to close above the neckline level of 7810, we expect the current momentum to further extend. Global cues are upbeat. S&P 500 has gained 1.45%


Daily Market Strategy
This time, like all times, is a very good one, if we but know what to do with it. - Ralph Waldo Emerson
 
The US economy seems to have got a vote of confidence with the Fed raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%-to-0.50% at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. What lies ahead is hard to guess as Janet Yellen says the pace of rate hikes in future wouldn't be ‘equally spaced.’ For India, a Fed rate hike means that RBI will have lesser leeway to cut rates. Even though US rates are not the only criteria for setting the Indian rates, it still does play some part in RBI’s decision.
 
The outlook is a positive start. The Nifty is finally approaching the critical resistance level, which is neckline of the bearish head and shoulder on the daily chart. If Nifty manages to close above the neckline level of 7810, we expect the current momentum to further extend. Global cues are upbeat. S&P 500 has gained 1.45%. The Dow jumped 1.28%  and Nasdaq added 1.52% .

US companies with good credit quality will be able to afford the 0.25% increase in short-term interest rates announced by the US Federal Reserve, but credit risk will increase for some weaker companies because refinance risk will rise for them as interest rates edge higher and the debt market becomes increasingly risk averse, says Moody's Investors Service.
 
The Supreme Court on expected lines has banned registration of diesel passenger vehicles of engine capacity of 2000cc or above in Delhi till 31 March 2016. M&M slumped 5.4% to Rs.1,219 on BSE.
 
Wipro Ltd closed down 0.6% at Rs.555 after the company announced profit warning for the December quarter due to Chennai floods. The company expects its December quarter IT services revenues to be in lower half of guidance range of $1.84 billion to $1.88 billion.
 
Back home, the Union Cabinet, chaired by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has approved a policy framework for development of Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) in coal and lignite bearing areas in the country.
 
Dilip Shanghvi and the promoters of Suzlon will make an open offer to acquire a 26 per cent stake in the wind turbine maker for Rs. 2,837 crore.
 
Narayana Hrudayalaya Limited (the “Company” or “Issuer”) has finalized the allocation of 73,56,988 equity shares at a Price of Rs. 250 (upper end of the Price Band) per Equity Share aggregating to Rs. 184 crore.
 
The Government is planning to announce a policy in January to permit automakers to manufacture vehicles that can run on both ethanol and petrol, Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari said on Wednesday.
 
Narayana Hrudayalaya Limited has finalized the allocation of 73,56,988 equity shares at a Price of Rs. 250 (upper end of the Price Band) per Equity Share aggregating to Rs. 184 crore.
The Supreme Court on expected lines has banned registration of diesel passenger vehicles of engine capacity of 2000cc or above in Delhi till 31 March 2016.
 
Arun Jaitley, in his address, expressed optimism that in the coming year if GST gets implemented along with the proposed rationalisation of direct taxes, emphasis on   infrastructure expenditure continues, there is increased spending on irrigation with expectations of a near-normal monsoon in the next season and revival of the global economy, there was no reason why the GDP rate will not rise by 1-1.5% in 2016-17.
 
Alkem Laboratories raised Rs. 1,350 crore in its recently closed initial public offering (IPO) after pricing shares at Rs. 1,050 rupees each.
 
National Highways Authority of India plans to raise funds through Public Issue of Tax Free, Secured, Redeemable Non Convertible Bonds with Face Value of Rs. 1,000 each for an amount of Rs. 1,000 crore with an option to retain oversubscription of up to additional  Rs. 9,000 crore aggregating up to a total of Rs. 10,000 crore vide Prospectus Tranche – I dated December 11, 2015.
 
Pipavav Defence ended 16% higher at Rs.76. Reliance Infrastructure open offer closed on 15 December. Under the offer, the company may acquire up to 191.4 million shares from public shareholders of Pipavav at a price of Rs.66.
 
Mahindra Holidays ended 1.3% higher at Rs.417 after the company said it will buy 51% stake in Visionsbolaget 10088 AB for Rs.7.1 crore. The acquisition was done through Mahindra Holidays’ subsidiary Holiday Club Sweden AB, India’s largest vacation ownership.
 
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) rose 1.3 % to Rs. 2,407 on the BSE after the company partnered Deutsche Lufthansa AG, a leading global aviation group, to provide testing services and help improve the quality of services of their technology operations.
 
Infosys gained 1.7% to Rs. 1095 on the BSE. Infosys Finacle, part of EdgeVerve Systems, the product subsidiary of Infosys and Fubon Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fubon Financial Holding Co. Ltd., announced the bank’s decision to adopt the new generation Finacle Core Banking solution.
 
NTPC soared 1.4% to Rs.133 on BSE. According to the news report, Enivronment Minister gave approval to NTPC's Telangana power project. Recently, the company has awarded a project to develop 350 MW solar power plant in Andhra Pradesh to SB Energy, a three-way joint venture between SoftBank Group, Bharti Enterprises and Foxconn Technology Group. This is the first joint venture project in India, as per media reports.
 
BHEL rallied 1.2% to Rs. 168 on BSE. The company has successfully commissioned a 500 MW thermal generating unit in West Bengal. The 500 MW (Unit 3) was commissioned at the upcoming Sagardighi thermal power extension project of West Bengal Power Development Corporation (WBPDCL), located at Sagardighi in Murshidabad district of West Bengal.
 
Thomas Cook (India) jumped 1.4% to Rs.202.45 on BSE. The company has received CCI approval for acquisition of rival Kuoni Travel (India) Pvt Ltd.
 
Arcotech Ltd climbed 2.4% to Rs.352.20 on BSE. The company has received an order from INDIA GOVERNMENT MINT (IGM), Mumbai for supply of 6000 MT Nickel Brass Coils worth Rs. 268.30 crores with an option of another 25% order making it an aggregate order of Rs. 335.37 crores. 
 
Global Data: RBA Bulletin AUD, SECO Economic Forecasts  CHF, Business Climate (Dec) EUR, IFO - Expectations (Dec) EUR, IFO - Current Assessment (Dec) EUR, IFO - Business Climate (Dec) EUR, Global Trade Balance (Oct) EUR, Trade Balance EU (Oct) EUR, Economic Bulletin  EUR, Retail  Sales (YoY) (Nov) GBP, Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) GBP, Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) (Nov) GBP, Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) (Nov) GBP, Construction Output s.a (MoM) (Oct) EUR, Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) (Oct) EUR, CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM) (Dec) GBP, Current Account (Q3) USD, Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 11) USD, Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 4) USD, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec) USD, CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Nov) USD, EIA Natural Gas Storage change (Dec 11) USD, CB Leading Indicator (Oct) AUD
 
Trends in FII flows: The FIIs were net sellers of Rs.5.03 bn in the cash segment on Wednesday. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs.10.24 bn as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.
 
Other news in the media:
 
TCS announced signing a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract with German carrier Lufthansa. As part of the deal, TCS will provide testing services and help improve the quality of services of the airline's technology operations. (BS)
 
HCL TalentCare, subsidiary of HCL Corporation, said it plans to train 20,000 graduates in next three years to make them employable for different industry verticals. (ET)
 
A one-man committee has been constituted to look into acts of omission and commission and recommend compensation to ONGC whose natural gas from Bay of Bengal block had flowed to adjoining fields of Reliance Industries. (ET)
 
Coal India has decided to become the title sponsor of the 2016 season of the Hockey India League. With the first game of the season commencing from January next year, the company will be spending about Rs. 147.3mn as sponsorship payment. (BS)
 
Vodafone and Reliance Communications are likely to sign 3G and 2G intra-circle roaming (ICR) agreements across five circles, including Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha. The two companies are also in advanced talks to share 3G spectrum in Delhi and Mumbai in order to reduce their operational expenses as well as improve quality of service. (ET)
 
Jet Airways is offering an extra allowance of Rs 70,000 to a section of its first officers ( junior pilots) to discourage them from leaving the airline. (BS)
 
The West Bengal Electricity Regulatory Commission has asked CESC Ltd to map the existing generator sets in its command area in the city and its surroundings for possible mitigation of sudden shortfall in available power in the grid through back-up supply. (BL)
 
Hitachi is keen to partner with Postal Department for payments bank solutions, Communications and IT Minister said. The President and CEO of IT Systems, Hitachi Ltd, Yutaka Saito, called on the minister and discussed about the possibility of Hitachi offering its banking solutions in a revenue sharing model to the Postal Department. (ET)
 
Finance Minister indicated that the rate of GST could be lower than the 18 per cent recommended by the committee led by Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian. (BL)
 
The Government increased excise duty on petrol by Rs. 0.30 per litre and by Rs. 1.17 a litre on diesel to make use of slump in oil prices to garner an additional Rs. 25bn. (BL)
 
 Investments in the Indian steel sector have not been "very forthcoming" on account of factors such as excess capacity in China which stood in the range of 250-300mn tonnes (MT), Parliament was informed. (ET)
 
The Supreme Court's decision to ban the sale of diesel cars and SUVs with engine capacity of over 2,000 cc has been termed as "arbitrary , hasty, and difficult to justify by companies, particularly the European luxury makers. (ET)
 
The Gujarat state government declared a bonus of Rs 110 per 20 kg for cotton farmers over and above the minimum support price (MSP). This bonus will be given to the farmers who sell their crop to the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI). (BS)
 
Union Transport Minister said the Centre would announce a policy to allow manufacturing of flexible fuel vehicles next month, which would help in cutting down pollution and also increase ethanol consumption. (BS)
 
India's food regulator is proposing tougher regulations for food importers, as it seeks to address concerns about the entry of sub-standard food products into the country. (ET)

TEN MOST ACTIVE FUTURES
Symbol
No.of Cont Traded
Last price
Open Interest
% chg in Op.Int
ICICIBANK
18,640
251.50
56,922,800
-5.61
M&M
15,397
1,219.40
3,561,600
10.03
AXISBANK
14,379
438.85
42,704,000
-3.99
SBIN
11,121
227.60
66,184,000
-1.68
LT
10,831
1,285.70
12,250,200
-0.32
YESBANK
10,302
700.15
14,279,300
-2.73
RELIANCE
9,420
980.15
24,795,000
-1.17
TATASTEEL
8,709
245.35
29,222,000
-1.86
RELINFRA
8,603
438.25
7,867,600
1.42
IGL
8,530
502.65
2,247,300
59.24
TEN MOST ACTIVE OPTIONS
Option Type
Strike price
No.of Cont Traded
Open Interest
% Chg in Op.In
LT
CE
1,300
3,454
513,300
16.39
M&M
PE
1,200
3,285
208,000
300.00
DLF
CE
120
2,588
7,410,000
-10.29
M&M
CE
1,300
2,451
194,400
174.58
RELIANCE
CE
1,000
2,415
1,016,000
2.01
SBIN
CE
230
2,238
2,758,000
22.47
LT
CE
1,350
2,210
788,700
5.12
ICICIBANK
CE
260
2,207
4,598,500
-2.52
RCOM
CE
85
2,109
9,136,000
-4.52
RELIANCE
PE
940
1,966
779,500
46.38
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL
Company Name
S3
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
R3
Sensex Index
25,362
25,394
25,428
25,494
25,561
25,595
25,627
Nifty Index
7,711
7,720
7,731
7,751
7,771
7,781
7,791
ABB Ltd
1,162
1,170
1,179
1,197
1,214
1,223
1,231
ACC
1,342
1,344
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,356
1,358
Ambuja Cements
192
193
193
194
195
196
196
Bajaj Holdings
1,628
1,632
1,637
1,647
1,656
1,661
1,665
BHEL
166
167
167
168
169
170
170
Bharti Airte
312
314
316
320
324
326
328
Cipla
634
635
636
638
641
642
643
Dabur India
265
266
267
270
272
273
274
GAIL India
331
334
338
344
351
354
357
Grasim Ind.
3,690
3,696
3,701
3,713
3,724
3,730
3,735
HCL Tech
838
840
843
848
853
856
858
HDFC Bank
1,059
1,061
1,063
1,067
1,071
1,073
1,075
Hero Honda
2,566
2,572
2,580
2,593
2,607
2,615
2,621
Hindalco
77
78
78
79
79
80
80
Hindustan Unilever
843
846
848
854
859
862
864
ICICI Bank
246
247
249
252
255
257
258
Infosys Tech
1,084
1,087
1,090
1,095
1,101
1,104
1,107
ITC Ltd
315
316
317
320
322
323
324
L&T
1,267
1,270
1,274
1,281
1,288
1,292
1,295
MTNL
21
22
22
22
23
23
23
M&M
1,183
1,192
1,201
1,219
1,237
1,246
1,255
Maruti Suzuki
4,585
4,593
4,602
4,619
4,636
4,644
4,653
Mahindra Satyam
517
519
521
524
528
529
531
National Alumin
39
39
40
40
40
40
40
ONGC
220
222
223
227
230
231
233
Oriental Bank
132
132
133
134
135
136
137
PNB
120
120
120
121
122
123
123
Ranbaxy Labs
778
779
781
784
787
789
790
Reliance Capital
385
387
389
393
396
398
400
Reliance Comm
80
80
81
82
83
83
84
Reliance Energy
424
427
430
437
443
447
450
Reliance Inds
969
971
974
978
982
985
987
R Power
48
49
49
49
50
50
51
Siemens India
1,165
1,168
1,172
1,178
1,184
1,187
1,190
SBI
225
225
226
227
229
229
230
TCS
2,388
2,393
2,398
2,407
2,417
2,422
2,426
Tata Motors
373
375
377
381
385
387
388
Tata Power
61
61
61
62
63
63
63
Tata Steel
241
242
243
245
247
248
249
Tata comm
405
406
407
409
411
412
413
Wipro
551
552
553
555
557
558
559
Wire And Wireless
32
32
33
33
33
33
33
Zee Entertainment
405
406
406
408
410
411
412

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