Flat to positive start for Sensex, Nifty

Global cues are not helping really as Asian indices are mixed with Nikkei lower and Shanghai higher. After the close of trade in Shanghai, the People’s Bank of China cut its reserve-requirement ratio (RRR).

The big event is now behind us and what lies ahead is hope that GST will sooner than later get passed and that the RBI may get into action and lower rates. With none of the feared negatives making it into the Union Budget (no increase in time frame for long term capital gains or super-rich tax or hike in basic excise), it remained more of a neutral event. On the face of it, there’s nothing fundamentally wrong about the FM’s Budget that rests on not one, not two but nine pillars viz agriculture, rural populace, social welfare including healthcare, education, skill development & employment creation, infrastructure, financial reforms, fiscal prudence, tax reforms and ease of doing business.

The silver lining, however, was that the fiscal deficit target of 3.9% was met and target of 3.5% has been maintained for FY17. This raises expectations of a rate cut from the RBI. The two other big positives are the Rs2 lac crore capital expenditure on roads and railways and continued flow of funds and autonomy from Centre to State.

The outlook is a flat to positive start as indices look to chart their own course in the morning. Auto numbers and PMI manufacturing data will be eyed besides continued dissecting of the budget. Global cues are not helping really as Asian indices are mixed with Nikkei lower and Shanghai higher. After the close of trade in Shanghai, the People’s Bank of China cut its reserve-requirement ratio (RRR). US stock indices ended lower on Monday with selling getting accelerated in the final couple of hours of the session. Dow lost more than 100 points. S&P 500 dropped 16 points. Nasdaq lost 33 points.

The Dow posted its first monthly gain since November. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted three straight monthly declines for the first time since 2011. Nymex crude oil futures jumped amid continued media reports of an impending production freeze.