Wednesday 4 May 2016

India April Nikkei Services PMI at 53.7 vs 54.3 in March

Services employment was unchanged in April, with almost all survey members reporting the same staffing levels as in March.

Although PMI data for April showed that economic conditions across India continued to improve, softer increases in output were noted among goods producers and service providers alike. The latter saw a slower expansion in new business inflows, while order books at manufacturers broadly stagnated. Subsequently, companies kept workforce numbers unchanged.

The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index dropped from 54.3 in March (37- month high) to 52.8 in April, pointing to a softer expansion in private sector activity across the country. Slower increases were seen at both goods producers and service providers.

Down from 54.3 in March to 53.7 in April, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index – which is based on a single question asking respondents to report on the actual change in output at their companies compared with one month ago – pointed to a solid, although softer, expansion in activity. The latest increase in output was supported by growth in the Financial Intermediation, Post & Telecommunication and Transport & Storage sub-sectors.

New business at services firms rose for the tenth straight month in April. Despite easing since March, the rate of expansion was solid overall. Although survey members reported improved demand, there were mentions of competitive pressures. Incoming new work in the private sector as a whole increased at a moderate and weaker rate, weighed on by stagnant order books among manufacturers. April data highlighted a general lack of pressure on the capacity of Indian service providers, as unfinished business declined. The latest fall was the third in as many months, but the weakest in this sequence and fractional overall. In contrast, manufacturers accumulated backlogs.

Services employment was unchanged in April, with almost all survey members reporting the same staffing levels as in March. Broadly stagnant employment trends have now been registered through the past nine months. Likewise, manufacturing payroll numbers were unchanged. Amid reports of higher prices paid for fuel, average input costs faced by Indian services companies increased in April. The rate of cost inflation reached a 13-month high, although remained below the long-run series trend. Purchase prices among manufacturers also rose at a quicker rate, one that was the most pronounced since May 2015. Evidence suggested that part of additional cost burdens were passed on to clients, as both manufacturers and service providers raised their selling prices again in April. In contrast to the trends seen for costs, rates of inflation softened in both cases.

Services firms’ sentiment weakened slightly in April, with the degree of optimism being modest by historical standards. Those companies that foresee activity growth in the year ahead linked confidence to hopes of a pick-up in demand.

Commenting on the Indian Services PMI survey data, Pollyanna De Lima, economist at Markit, which compiles the survey, said, “Having accelerated to the fastest in over three years during March, activity growth across India’s private sector took a step back in April.

Manufacturers appear to be still struggling to generate strong upward momentum in a subdued demand environment, while solid increases in activity and new work were sustained among service providers. Nevertheless, a softer expansion in activity, combined with unchanged employment and a dip in business expectations among the latter suggest that companies are not fully convinced about the recovery and that March’s stronger numbers might have been a one-off.”

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