Wednesday 21 December 2016

Indices to open flat to positive

Asian indices opened in the green with the Japanese index "Nikkei" gaining for 11 of the last 12 sessions. Overnight Dow Jones closed setting new record highs and closed within 25 points of 20000. Banks led the gains which could spill over to Asian indices also. Strength in the US$, steady flow of ETF money and rise in US bond yields have been the theme after the Trump victory last month. 

The inconvenience caused by the demonetization move is slowly tapering and reports suggest that the prime minister will announce a ‘blitzkrieg of initiatives’ in the new year.  FM Arun Jaitley indicated that tax incentives could be given for small businesses engaged in cashless transactions. For now, the Indian market remains in a limbo of lost dreams. The outlook is a flat start with some buying expected after five days of weakness.

The rupee breached the 68 mark against the US dollar, and the narrowing yield differentials between US and Indian sovereign bonds is offering no comfort at all. The dollar climbed back towards a 14-year high. The Dow is within striking distance of the magical 20,000 mark and if it happens soon, it would be the fastest 1000 point gain for the index. A peek into the past shows that Dow has often struggled for long around these psychological numbers. Eurekahedge Report shows that almost 13% of bn dollar hedge funds posted double-digit gains in 2016, as against 8% in 2015.

Nifty continues to drift lower as low volumes coupled with weak sentiment add to downturn. The index seems set to bounce from oversold territory as 8050 seems to have been defended on the down side. For today expect second half bounce back led by IT, Financials and Metals which should see value buying coupled with short covering driving prices higher.

The benchmark indices of the US including Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended at record highs. Dow Jones missed the 20000 mark by a marginal 25 points. The sentiment was high and positive on the hope of increase in spending towards infrastructure and indicated drop in taxes by President-elect Donald Trump. S&P 500 closed at 2270 up 0.36%, Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 19974 up 0.46% and Nasdaq Composite ended at 5483 up 0.49%. 

The major Asian Indices started off on a positive note, which due to positive outlook of the US indices. Trade volumes were low ahead of the year-end and Christmas holidays, but gains in crude oil and the overall resilience to geopolitical tensions helped shares gain. Hong Kong's Hang Seng opened at 21,770, Japan's Nikkei 225 opened at 19,547, China's Shanghai Composite started at 3,107 and Singapore's Straits Times opened at 2,912. In the morning, Hang Seng had gained over 100 points. At time of filing this reports, the mentioned indices were all trading in green.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold stock futures worth Rs 9.42 billion and bought index futures worth Rs 1.88 billion on the NSE. They also net sold index options worth Rs 2.75 billion. FIIs net sold Indian shares worth Rs 6.86 billion on the BSE, NSE, and the Metropolitan Stock Exchange combined. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 4.19 billion.

American Depository Receipts (ADRs)of Indian companies ended mixed note yesterday. The gainers included Infosys, Rediff.com, Vedanta and HDFC Bank, while the losers include Dr Reddy's, ICICI Bank, Sify, Tata Motors, and Wipro. 

The December futures of SGX Nifty 50 was marginally lower, which points that the Indian indices might have a soft start. SGX Nifty 50 Dec was at 8110 down 21.50 points from Tuesday.

Looking forward, Nifty has found strong support @ 8050 which should hold & faces strong resistance @ 8150. Bank nifty also found support around 18000 which should hold while 18500 will act as resistance on the upside.

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