As per the ZyFin Business firm, a leading macro analytics firm focused on emerging markets, highlighted that Indian economic growth is likely to improve in the coming future on the back of increasing exports and industrial activity in the country. ZyFin Research's Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) that reflects various macroeconomic trends on a monthly basis has registered 4.7 percent growth in December 2013 compared to the same period in the previous year. In November, BCI had improved by 4.2 per cent on year-on-year basis.
Further, ZyFin firm noted that an improvement in BCI for December was led by improving foreign trade statistics, slight decline in petrol import bill and forex reserves among others. ZyFin BCI is a real-time indicator of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), providing an estimate of the IIP two months prior to the country’s official release. A continuous uptrend in BCI for the three consecutive months signifies an improving business cycle and if this uptick extends for two more months, a more sustainable growth can be expected in industrial activity in India.
However, the analytics firm added that existing downtrend in key real economic variables like production of aluminium, pig iron and electricity, declining domestic air passenger traffic and constricted money supply has become a concerns for economic growth. Highlighting that recovery in consumer demand is essential for a sustained economic growth, ZyFin's Consumer Outlook Index for December has also showed some early indications of improvement in consumer demand in India.
Further, ZyFin firm noted that an improvement in BCI for December was led by improving foreign trade statistics, slight decline in petrol import bill and forex reserves among others. ZyFin BCI is a real-time indicator of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), providing an estimate of the IIP two months prior to the country’s official release. A continuous uptrend in BCI for the three consecutive months signifies an improving business cycle and if this uptick extends for two more months, a more sustainable growth can be expected in industrial activity in India.
However, the analytics firm added that existing downtrend in key real economic variables like production of aluminium, pig iron and electricity, declining domestic air passenger traffic and constricted money supply has become a concerns for economic growth. Highlighting that recovery in consumer demand is essential for a sustained economic growth, ZyFin's Consumer Outlook Index for December has also showed some early indications of improvement in consumer demand in India.
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