Friday, 10 January 2014

Markets to get a cautious start; Infosys numbers eyed

The Indian markets once again declined in last session with majority of traders remaining on sidelines ahead of major domestic and global events. Today, the start is likely to be cautious and all eyes will be on the Infosys Q3 numbers, which will kick start the official earnings season. There is general expectation that the IT bellwether will report a profit growth of over 12% for the quarter and may upgrade its annual revenue outlook by a notch. Infosys had earlier projected an annual revenue growth of 9-10%, well below the industry average of 12-14%. There will be some concern in the market with global rating agency Moody’s cautioning that low growth and high inflation could weaken the country’s debt profile and raise financing cost. There will be some buzz in the market with Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowing put-call options in foreign inflows with riders. RBI has said that if a company opts for pre-contracted exit price while accepting funds from an overseas investor, under some conditions such contracts will be legal. There will be some buzz in coal and power stocks, as the Supreme Court has asked the government to cancel all pre-2005 coal block allotments to private entities stuck for years over forest or environment clearances at the state level. PSU OMCs too may remain under pressure on buzz that the government is considering partial rollback of market price of diesel sold to bulk users like road transport buses.

The US markets ended mostly flat ahead of the release of the closely watched monthly jobs report and trader seemed reluctant to make any significant moves. The Asian markets have made a mixed start and the Japanese market is still showing weakness, down by around half a percent, while some of the indices are trading higher by over quarter of a percent.

Back home, reversing all their initial gains, key domestic benchmarks witnessed consolidation on Thursday with both the gauges snapping the session on a flat note with negative bias, as investors remained on sidelines ahead of the Infosys’ third quarter performance which will set the tone of earnings season for the Oct-Dec quarter. However, losses remained capped as some support came in from Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram’s statement that 2013-14 is likely to end with an economic growth of about 5 percent on the back of spurt in investment activities in the latter half of the fiscal. Firm opening in European markets too helped the Indian equity markets. However, disappointing cues from Asian markets took their toll on Indian markets and dragged the frontline gauges in the red. Nikkei ended the session with a cut of one and a half percent as stronger yen weighed on export-oriented stocks. Back home, sentiments remained dampened on report that domestic passenger car sales declined 4.52% to 1,32,561 units in December, compared with 1,38,835 units sold in the year-ago month. Meanwhile, total sales of commercial vehicles sales were down 25.53% to 46,757 units in December from 62,786 units, while total sale of vehicles across categories registered a decline of 1.21% to 14,31,632 units from 14,49,203 units in December 2012. Additionally, stocks like Gokul Refoils & Solvent, Sanwaria Agro, JVL Agro Industries edged lower in trade on reports of CCEA considering proposal to hike import duty hike on refined edible oil to 10%.  On the flip side, shares of gold finance companies like Muthoot, Manappuram Finance traded jubilantly on the decision of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to allow finance companies to offer loans of up to 75% of the value of pledged gold as against 60% earlier. Moreover, shares of public sector oil marketing companies viz. BPCL, HPCL and IOC all edged higher as US crude oil futures traded near the lowest level in six weeks after data showed US crude stockpiles increased more than forecast. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined by 16.01 points or 0.08%, to settle at 20713.37, while the CNX Nifty lost 6.25 points or 0.10% to settle at 6,168.35.

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