Friday 11 March 2016

Daily Market Strategy - Draghi drags! Sensex, Nifty to open flat

The outlook is a flat to negative start. The 7600 mark continues to act as a stiff resistance. A run up in stock prices three weeks ahead of the policy, ECB guidance that further cuts will not take place soon and lack of faith in stimulus' ability to boost economic growth were the reasons for the fall in global markets. 

Mario-Dragi1Stop seeing the obstacles you face as reasons why you can't do something. See them as a reason why you can. - Ali Vincent
 
Reforms took a front seat with the government unshackling the oil & gas sector with a new exploration regime that allows a higher price of gas for new deep-sea fields.  The Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy, a policy for grant of extension to the Production Sharing Contracts for small and medium sized discovered fields and approval for the amendment to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 made headlines on Thursday. Besides, a Real Estate Bill to protect interests of buyers and bring more transparency to the sector was passed in the Rajya Sabha. 
 
The outlook is a flat to negative start. The 7600 mark continues to act as a stiff resistance. A run up in stock prices three weeks ahead of the policy, ECB guidance that further cuts will not take place soon and lack of faith in stimulus' ability to boost economic growth were the reasons for the fall in global markets. What will excite markets is a recovery in corporate earnings, both globally and in India. Next in focus will be statements by the US Fed and Japan Central Banker next week.

The ECB cut its key lending rate to zero from 0.05% and pushed the rate on its deposit facility to minus 0.4% from minus 0.3%. The ECB also announced that it would expand the size of its monthly bond purchases to €80 billion (US$86.86 billion) from its current level of €60 billion beginning in April and said it would expand the scope of bond purchases to include investment-grade, euro-denominated, non-bank corporate bonds. ECB president Mario Draghi said the central bank did not see the need to reduce interest rates further
 
Asian markets are lackluster. US blue chip stock indices finished flat on Thursday while the Nasdaq declined modestly despite the European Central Bank (ECB) announcing fresh monetary easing measures.
 
The Federal Reserve policy makers are slated to meet on March 15-16. The Fed is on a path to raising rates, which differs from the ECB’s current moves.
 
US stocks had risen earlier, tracking a rally in Europe after the ECB announced new stimulus measures. However, stocks across Europe pared gains after the ECB President Mario Draghi said during his news conference that he doesn’t anticipate a need to cut rates further.
 
The euro reversed early weakness to reclaim US$1.11 and European stocks sank, with the German DAX down 2%.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 5.23 points to close at 16,995.13, after trading within a 308-point range, and overcoming an earlier deficit of 178 points. The S&P 500 index finished flat at 1,989.57, as materials and telecom shares advanced and industrials and technology stocks declined. The broad-market benchmark had traded as high as 2,005.08 and as low as 1969.25.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite index lost 12.22 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 4,662.16. The tech-heavy index had been down as much as 66 points during the session.
 
Crude-oil prices dropped 1.2% to settle at US$37.84 per barrel following reports that major oil producers' meeting to strengthen a global pact to freeze production had been put off.  Separately, jobless claims fell to a five-month low of 259,000, suggesting that layoffs are shrinking and that the labor market is recovering. Economists had expected initial jobless claims to total a seasonally adjusted 275,000 in the seven days stretching from Feb. 28 to March 5.
 
Godrej Properties Ltd announced the launch of Phase 2 of its flagship project, The Trees at Vikhroli, Mumbai.  The Trees is one of the largest real estate projects in Mumbai and is the first step towards the greater development opportunity that will unfold in Vikhroli.
 
Reliance Industries Ltd has announced that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on March 10, 2016, has declared an interim dividend of Rs. 10.50 per fully paid-up equity share of Rs. 10/- each of the Company.
 
Nestle India is reportedly planning to re-introduce earlier variants of Maggi noodles besides launching new variants in the next few months, reports a business daily.

The Supreme Court asked the telecom operators to give an undertaking that they have not exceeded the two per cent threshold limit of call drops as mandated by the TRAI regulations.

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd: Jindal Steel & Power Ltd (JSPL) will try to sell stakes in few steel units, set up JVs with companies in Asia and Europe, and seek a buyer for its power assets in India in a bid to pare debt, CEO Ravi Uppal has been quoted as saying. Domestic credit ratings agency CRISIL has downgraded Naveen Jindal-led Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. (JSPL) to “default” grade just three weeks after it had slashed the company's credit rating.

Blue Star: Blue Star is in talks with renowned professional institutes such as IIT-Mumbai and IISc-Bengaluru for a tie-up to develop new innovative products, reports a business daily.

Crompton Greaves: The company has announced that its consortium has bagged contract for EnBW Hohe See Offshore Wind Farm.

United Spirits Ltd: United Spirits has hastened the process of selling 13 residential properties and mandated a leading banker to re-evaluate these assets, a person with direct knowledge of the development said.

Bharti Airtel: BSNL is in preliminary discussions with Bharti Airtel for spectrum sharing in four circles and the deal is likely to be finalised by June, reports a business daily.

Sun Pharma Ltd: Around 3.8 lakh cartons of an osteoporosis drug manufactured by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries are being recalled in the US and Puerto Rico due to the presence of 'unknown impurity', as per media reports.

Godrej Properties: The company expects a sales revenue of about Rs 700 crore from the second phase of its luxury housing project at Vikhroli in Mumbai launched today.

Omaxe: Omaxe's promoter and CEO Mohit Goel has started an e-commerce portal, Supplified.com, in his personal capacity to market construction materials and will invest $1 million as seed funding, as per media reports.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd: Hero MotoCorp is planning to enter new markets globally, including Mexico and Nigeria, as it eyes 1 crore unit sales by 2017-18.

Nestle India: The company is reportedly planning to re-introduce earlier variants of Maggi noodles besides launching new variants in the next few months, reports a business daily.

Reliance Industries Ltd: RIL said that it will pay a total of Rs.3,140 crore in interim dividend to shareholders, including the promoters.

NBCC Ltd: The board of directors of National Buildings Construction Corporation will meet on March 11 to consider a proposal for a stock split.

Britannia: Britannia may enter the 'ready-to-cook' chapati and parotha segment soon after the Bengaluru-based start-up iD Fresh Food introduced the staple Indian breads in the market, reports a financial newspaper.

IndiGo: IndiGo received the first of its 430 ordered Airbus A320 neo (Neo Engine Option) plans, kickstarting the next phase of expansion for India's biggest carrier by market share.
 
Realty stocks in focus: A bill seeking to regulate the real estate sector, bring in transparency and help protect consumer interests was passed by the Rajya Sabha which could boost demand for real estate and hence positive for real estate developers.

Power Grid Ltd: Power Grid Corporation of India said its board has approved a total investment of Rs.885 crore in projects to strengthen transmission and augment transformation capacity.

PSU Bank: CRISIL has downgraded its ratings on the debt instruments of eight public sector banks, and revised its outlook on five others to 'Negative' from 'Stable'.

ONGC, Essar Oil: The Cabinet decided to revert to the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation the Ratna and R-series oil and gas fields, off the Mumbai coast, which were previously awarded to Essar Oil but the contract could not be signed.

Tata Consultancy Services: TCS announced it has been recognized as a ‘Leader’ in the IDC MarketScape report, “Worldwide Manufacturing PLM Strategic Consulting 2015 Vendor Assessment.”

Wipro Limited:The IT company announced a strategic collaboration with Tableau, a global leader in rapid-fire, easy-to-use business analytics software, to offer solution accelerators and innovative delivery models for Wipro’s and Tableau’s customers across the globe. 

State Bank of India: As many as eight investors, including global private equity (PE) firms KKR, Bain Capital and General Atlantic, have been shortlisted for the purchase of GE Capital’s stake in a credit card joint venture with State Bank of India (SBI), reports a business daily.
 
Global Data: M2 Money Supply (YoY) (Feb)CNY, New Loans (Feb) CNY, Trade Deficit Government (Feb) INR, Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Feb) EUR, Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Feb) EUR, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Feb) EUR, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Feb) EUR, Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Feb) EUR, Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb) EUR, HICP (MoM) (Feb) EUR, Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Feb) EUR, HICP (YoY) (Feb) EUR, Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb) EUR, Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) (Jan) EUR, Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) (Jan) EUR, Consumer Inflation Expectations GBP, Goods Trade Balance (Jan) GBP, Trade Balance; non-EU (Jan) GBP, Total Trade Balance (Jan) GBP, Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) EUR, Global Trade Balance (Jan) EUR, FX Reserves, USD (Feb 29) INR, Manufacturing Output (Jan) INR, Industrial Output (Jan) INR, Cumulative Industrial Output (Jan) INR, Export Price Index (YoY) (Feb) USD, Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb) USD, Export Price Index (MoM) (Feb) USD, Import Price Index (YoY) (Feb) USD, Unemployment Rate (Feb) CAD, Participation rate (Feb) CAD, Net Change in Employment (Feb) CAD, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar)Preliminar USD, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count USD
 
Trends in FII flows: The DIIs were net sellers of Rs.5.98 bn in the cash segment on Thursday. The FIIs were net buyers of Rs.10.63 bn as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.
 
Other news of the day:
 
The Union Cabinet has approved the cancellation of an earlier award of the Ratna and R-Series petroleum blocks, 130 km from the Mumbai coast, to a consortium of Essar Oil and to revert the blocks to the original licensee ONGC. There have been substantial changes in the terms and conditions prevalent at the time of issue of the Letter of Award dated March 1996, the government said. (BS)
 
JSPL has said it is in discussion with banks and has launched 5/25 scheme, and is also exploring various options with all lenders to reschedule payments considering likely short /medium term cash flow mis-matches. (ET)
 
Around 0.4 mn cartons of an osteoporosis drug manufactured by domestic drug major Sun Pharmaceutical Industries are being recalled in the US and Puerto Rico due to presence of 'unknown impurity'. (ET)
 
Hero MotoCorp plans to enter new markets globally, including Mexico and Nigeria, as it eyes 10mn unit sales by 2017-18. (ET)
 
BSNL is in preliminary discussions with the country's top operator Bharti Airtel for spectrum sharing in four circles and the deal is likely to be finalised by June. (ET)
 
Direct-to-home (DTH) operator Tata Sky has launched a new value added service, Tata Sky Comedy. The first of its kind interactive service on DTH provides a single destination for all formats of Hindi comedy content. Tata Sky has partnered with Comedywalas, a unit of Shemaroo Entertainment for content. (ET)
 
Godrej Properties expects a sales revenue of about Rs. 7bn from the second phase of its luxury housing project at Vikhroli in Mumbai. (BL)
 
The Rajya Sabha has passed a bill to regulate the real estate sector, aiming to protect home buyers from erring developers besides bringing transparency in the sector. (BS)
 
The government approved pricing freedom to help monetise Rs 1.8tn of gas discoveries, brought in a more liberal fiscal regime for oil and gas exploration and decided to amend the mining laws to allow companies to more freely sell assets. (ET)
 
Auto industry body Siam cut the growth forecast for passenger vehicles sales for the ongoing and next fiscals, expecting demand to suffer due to infrastructure cess of up to 4% announced in the Budget.  (ET)
 
Payments made by TV channels or newspaper companies to agencies for procuring advertisements will not attract tax deducted at source (TDS), the tax department has said. (ET)
 
The Cabinet approved a Rs 80bn scheme to provide cooking gas (LPG) connections free of cost to women members of poor households. (BS)

TEN MOST ACTIVE FUTURES
Symbol
No.of Cont Traded
Last price
Open Interest
% chg in Op.Int
SBIN
19,438
181.20
61,350,000
2.68
RELIANCE
17,842
1,009.70
22,925,500
3.37
TATASTEEL
15,915
295.15
22,452,000
-6.77
AXISBANK
13,331
415.30
42,183,000
1.94
RELINFRA
13,146
501.00
6,658,600
1.81
YESBANK
13,140
789.10
11,525,500
0.21
INFY
12,579
1,145.30
10,292,500
-3.23
ICICIBANK
11,394
215.65
55,957,200
0.88
JUSTDIAL
11,103
628.95
2,451,000
9.49
MARUTI
10,157
3,634.25
3,053,500
-2.30
TEN MOST ACTIVE OPTIONS
Option Type
Strike price
No.of Cont Traded
Open Interest
% Chg in Op.In
RELIANCE
CE
1,040
3,487
739,500
54.71
AXISBANK
CE
430
3,061
1,223,000
27.53
SBIN
CE
200
2,769
5,378,000
13.17
ASHOKLEY
CE
100
2,618
6,342,000
50.75
RELIANCE
CE
1,020
2,400
508,500
39.51
SBIN
CE
190
2,236
4,374,000
10.12
RELIANCE
CE
1,060
2,146
672,500
26.77
TATASTEEL
CE
300
2,096
1,704,000
14.52
RELIANCE
CE
1,080
1,988
417,500
15.17
YESBANK
CE
800
1,897
443,100
-6.08
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL
Company Name
S3
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
R3
Sensex Index
24,395
24,450
24,509
24,623
24,738
24,796
24,852
Nifty Index
7,420
7,436
7,453
7,486
7,519
7,536
7,552
ABB Ltd
1,125
1,131
1,137
1,148
1,159
1,165
1,171
ACC
1,214
1,218
1,222
1,230
1,238
1,242
1,245
Ambuja Cements
199
199
200
201
203
203
204
Bajaj Holdings
1,417
1,421
1,426
1,434
1,442
1,446
1,450
BHEL
102
102
103
104
106
106
107
Bharti Airte
331
332
333
336
338
340
341
Cipla
528
530
531
534
538
539
541
Dabur India
244
244
245
246
247
248
248
GAIL India
329
332
335
341
347
350
353
Grasim Ind.
3,551
3,563
3,575
3,599
3,623
3,636
3,648
HCL Tech
808
810
813
818
824
826
829
HDFC Bank
1,011
1,014
1,016
1,021
1,025
1,028
1,030
Hero Honda
2,779
2,787
2,795
2,812
2,829
2,837
2,846
Hindalco
81
82
82
84
85
86
86
Hindustan Unilever
829
831
833
838
842
844
846
ICICI Bank
213
213
214
215
217
218
218
Infosys Tech
1,132
1,135
1,139
1,146
1,153
1,157
1,160
ITC Ltd
310
312
313
316
319
321
322
L&T
1,160
1,167
1,173
1,186
1,199
1,206
1,212
MTNL
17
17
18
18
18
18
19
M&M
1,209
1,213
1,217
1,226
1,235
1,239
1,243
Maruti Suzuki
3,588
3,597
3,607
3,627
3,647
3,657
3,667
Mahindra Satyam
460
462
463
466
469
471
472
National Alumin
38
38
38
39
39
39
40
ONGC
203
203
204
206
207
208
209
Oriental Bank
87
87
88
89
91
91
92
PNB
80
80
81
82
83
83
84
Ranbaxy Labs
851
854
858
865
872
876
879
Reliance Capital
363
365
367
372
376
378
380
Reliance Comm
52
53
53
54
55
55
55
Reliance Energy
493
496
500
507
514
518
521
Reliance Inds
988
994
1,000
1,012
1,024
1,030
1,036
R Power
46
46
47
47
48
48
48
Siemens India
1,017
1,022
1,026
1,036
1,045
1,050
1,054
SBI
177
178
179
181
182
183
184
TCS
2,321
2,328
2,335
2,348
2,361
2,368
2,375
Tata Motors
341
343
345
348
352
354
356
Tata Power
58
58
59
59
59
59
59
Tata Steel
291
292
294
296
299
300
301
Tata comm
353
355
356
359
362
364
365
Wipro
533
533
534
536
538
539
539
Wire And Wireless
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
Zee Entertainment
388
389
390
393
395
396
398

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