April WPI eases to two month low at 5.20% on decline in Fuel & Power index

In a complete divergence to Retail Inflation data, the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, eased in-line with expectation at two month low of 5.20% in month of April, 2014, as compared to 5.70% for the March and 4.77% during the corresponding month of the previous year. However, in a bit of worry February Inflation stood higher at 179.5 as compared to 178.9 (provisional) and annual rate of inflation based on final index stood revised at 5.03% as compared to 4.68 percent respectively. Meanwhile, build up inflation rate in the financial year so far stood at 0.22% compared to a build up rate of 0.71% in the corresponding period of the previous year. The decline in headline inflation was mainly on account of decline in Fuel & Power index, which occupies 14.91% weight in the overall index. The group slid by 1.0% to 211.0 (provisional) from 213.1 (provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of aviation turbine fuel and furnace oil (4% each), LPG and petrol (2% each) and kerosene and bitumen (1% each). Meanwhile, Primary article index, which occupies 20.12% weight in the overall headline index, rose by 1% to 242.5 (provisional) from 240.2 (provisional) for the previous month on account of 1.5% surge in Food Articles at 238.8. On the flip side, index for Non-Food Articles group declined by 0.4% to 216.3 (provisional) from 217.2 (provisional) for the previous month. Further, the index of Manufacture Products, which occupies the majority 64.97% weight in WPI index, rose by 0.2% to 153.8 (provisional) from 153.5 (provisional) for the previous month on account of surge of food articles by 0.8% at 153.8 (provisional) from 153.5 (provisional) for the previous month. However, the headline inflation does not assume much of significance ever-since Reserve Bank of India moved its focus to CPI, being the main index in terms of key determinants. A factor that matters is the higher Retail inflation figures, which has surged to three months high at 8.59% in April, driven by higher food prices, notably ahead of RBI’s monetary policy review on June 3, 2014. Additionally, stick core inflation, which stood at 3.4% in April against 3.5% in March, also remains to be cause of worry.